Eoin O’Neill

Exploring a spatial statistical approach to quantify flood risk perception using cognitive maps

Modern flood risk management strategies have evolved from flood resistance to a holistic approach incorporating prevention, protection and preparedness with the aim of reducing the likelihood and/or impact of flooding. This evolution has been driven by a trend of increasingly damaging and frequent flood events due to climate change. Populations at risk are required to be an active participant within modern flood risk management plans, resulting in management plan effectiveness being partially dependent on the relevant population’s flood risk perception. Thus, understanding how at-risk populations perceive their own flood risk, and how this compares to the reality of the situation, is a significant component of flood risk management. This paper compares subjective risk perception to an objective measure of risk within a specific case study area, where 305 residents were surveyed on their perception of flood risk. As part of the survey, respondents were asked to delineate the areas of the study area that they perceived would be at risk of inundation during a severe flood event. Using spatial statistical indicators, including Fuzzy Kappa comparison, it was possible to quantify the divergence between subjective and objective measures of risk extent, enabling an assessment of the ‘correctness’ of subjective perceived risk. This novel approach identified significant deviations between risk perception and objective risk measures at an individual level. The paper concludes by considering potential policy implications.

The framing of two major flood episodes in the Irish print news media: Implications for societal adaptation to living with flood risk.

Societal adaptation to flooding is a critical component of contemporary flood policy. Using content analysis, this article identifies how two major flooding episodes (2009 and 2014) are framed in the Irish broadsheet news media. The article considers the extent to which these frames reflect shifts in contemporary flood policy away from protection towards risk management, and the possible implications for adaptation to living with flood risk. Frames help us make sense of the social world, and within the media, framing is an essential tool for communication. Five frames were identified: flood resistance and structural defences, politicisation of flood risk, citizen as risk manager, citizen as victim and emerging trade-offs. These frames suggest that public debates on flood management do not fully reflect shifts in contemporary flood policy, with negative implications for the direction of societal adaptation. Greater discussion is required on the influence of the media on achieving policy objectives.

Exploring the spatial dimension of community-level flood risk perception: a cognitive mapping approach

ABSTRACT Environmental perceptions are central to individuals’ behavioural interactions with the environment. Cognitive maps, portraying a spatial representation of an individual’s environmental perception, can be aggregated to gain insight into the collective environmental perception of groups and populations. This paper uses cognitive mapping techniques to examine one aspect of environmental perception, flood risk perception, within a residential population (n = 305). Flood risk perception was examined for the whole sample and six subgroup pairs. Using subgroups allowed examination of how factors previously shown to influence flood risk perception influence the cognitive map production in this population. We use a novel technique (slope analysis) to examine how the population’s perception of flood risk compares with expert assessments of flood risk, and compare the results of this novel technique with a commonly used cognitive map analysis technique (majority threshold method). Both methods identify areas where there is consensus within the population as to which areas are at risk of flooding. However, slope analysis usefully identifies areas where the population’s perception of flood risk lacks consensus, and is at odds with expert assessments of flood risk, without the loss of information inherent in the majority threshold method. Thus, this technique provides a novel approach to studies of environmental perception that can be widely applied within many fields.

Impact-based planning evaluation: Advancing normative criteria for policy analysis

Planning decisions have considerable impacts on both natural and built environments. The impacts of these decisions may remain for many decades and many are irreversible. In order to gain a better understanding of these long-standing impacts, planners require a systematic approach to evaluate the planning policy instruments utilised. The literature on planning evaluation shows that most studies have taken a conformance-based evaluation approach, where the success of a planning policy instrument is based on the degree of conformity between the policy outcomes and its intended objectives. While evaluating such criteria is necessary, it is hardly ever sufficient largely because of unintended effects. This paper proposes an impact-based approach to planning evaluation that incorporates all the impacts, intended and otherwise, that a planning policy instrument may bring about, irrespective of the initial objectives of the policy. Using a number of economic and planning theories, this paper argues that, in addition to conformance and performance, other normative evaluation criteria, such as, efficiency, equity, social and political acceptability, and institutional arrangements, should be included to emphasise the importance of planning decisions and their substantial impacts on quality of life, social justice, and sustainability.

The Pope and the environment: Towards an integral ecology?

The Pope’s encyclical letter, Laudato Si’: On Care for our Common Home (2015), has generated significant debate since its publication. The first Papal pronouncement focused on environmental issues,...

Expanding the horizons of integrated flood risk management: a critical analysis from an Irish perspective

ABSTRACT Millions of people around the world are exposed to some degree of flood hazard, with the level of exposure increasing with climate change. Arising from the scale of recent flood experiences across Europe, the European Union adopted the Floods Directive in 2007 to bring about greater assessment and management of flood risk across the EU and encapsulating the paradigm shift that involves a more holistic approach to flood management by requiring consideration of both structural and non-structural measures. This paper explores the evolution of flood management in Ireland, and highlights gaps concerning understanding of human–environment behavioural interactions. The paper promotes the importance of exploring how people’s perception of the environment and the design of urban landscapes may influence behaviour; important considerations in the advancement of a more integrated flood risk management system.

The Dynamics of Justification in Policy Reform: Insights from Water Policy Debates in Ireland

ABSTRACT Policy reform can be complex and fraught with contending arguments. Although much research has been conducted into the politics of coalition formation, less attention has been devoted to legitimating logics in policy reform. Drawing on the work of Boltanski and Thévenot, this exploratory study addresses this deficit by examining the influence of justifications deployed in policy debates. The paper analyses the role of shifting reasoning in contentious debates concerning attempts to reform water policy, including the introduction of domestic water charges in Ireland. Employing data from parliamentary deliberations, the paper traces the changing forms of justification used by those favouring and opposing the reforms. This examination suggests the importance of aligning an argument’s content with the shifting context into which it is introduced. The paper highlights the benefits of an investigative approach concerning policy justification for understanding policy reform dynamics at the intersection of politics and environmental communication.

The Precautionary Principle: A Preferred Approach for the Unknown

Consideration of society’s response to climate change is complex; with emergent deliberations over how we should balance present-day costs of achieving emissions reduction in the short-run against the net benefits of long-run climate stability. This question generates a variety of ethical considerations concerning the distribution of real impacts, about decision-making under uncertainty, and also whether there may be alternative pathways to achieve a sustainable future, or if this goal is even attainable. In this context, Thom Brooks provides a useful exploration of the nature and rationale of existing responses to climate change. Nonetheless, the premise of Brooks’ essay is that conventional climate change policy responses treat climate change in a somewhat reductionist manner – seeking its resolution as an end state – and fail to consider a future environmental catastrophe associated with what he sees as an inevitable climate change. He proposes a reframing of how we view our policy response to climate change, arguing that we should view our responses as a means to manage future climate problems rather than seeking an unattainable end-state solution to it. Brooks’ viewpoint does offer some food for thought. Indeed there is some convergence with recent economics literature, with climate policy being conceptualized as risk management by some (Convery & Wagner, 2015; Keohane, 2009). However, I would argue that it is impractical to assess current climate responses in the context of managing future catastrophic events that have virtually immeasurable probabilities, consequences and timelines; and, in a way, reducing our current mitigation efforts to a well-intentioned ‘empty gesture’. Moreover, there are limitations to his argument, in particular, aspects of his analysis of policy instruments underappreciate the potential of such market-based approaches, which I shall elaborate on. Brooks details the two broad approaches that are generally supported in policy; the first comprising a conservationist approach to achieve carbon emissions reduction (mitigation), and the second comprising adaptation of the environment to prepare for the anticipated impacts of climate change.