Era Dabla-Norris

What causes firms to hide output? The determinants of informality

Abstract In many developing countries, a significant part of economic activity takes place in the informal sector. Earlier work has examined the determinants of the size of the informal sector, focusing separately on factors such as tax and regulation burden, financial market development, and the quality of the legal system. We revisit this issue by using an integrated data set which contains information on all these aspects. Building on a simple analytical framework, we test the channels affecting the degree of informality. We find that the quality of the legal framework is crucially important in determining the size of the informal sector, whereas the significance of taxes, regulations, and financial constraints is reduced in the context of a well functioning legal system, consistent with the presented model. Additionally, firm size is negatively correlated with the propensity to go informal; finance constraints tend to induce informality among smaller firms but not among large firms, whereas legal obstacles induce informality among larger firms.

Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality; A Global Perspective

This paper analyzes the extent of income inequality from a global perspective, its drivers, and what to do about it. The drivers of inequality vary widely amongst countries, with some common drivers being the skill premium associated with technical change and globalization, weakening protection for labor, and lack of financial inclusion in developing countries. We find that increasing the income share of the poor and the middle class actually increases growth while a rising income share of the top 20 percent results in lower growth—that is, when the rich get richer, benefits do not trickle down. This suggests that policies need to be country specific but should focus on raising the income share of the poor, and ensuring there is no hollowing out of the middle class. To tackle inequality, financial inclusion is imperative in emerging and developing countries while in advanced economies, policies should focus on raising human capital and skills and making tax systems more progressive.

Budget Institutions and Fiscal Performance in Low-Income Countries

This paper presents, for the first time, multi-dimensional indices of the quality of budget institutions in low-income countries. The indices allow for benchmarking against the performance of middle-income countries, across regions, and according to different institutional arrangements that deliver good fiscal performance. Using the constructed indices, the paper provides preliminary empirical support for the hypotheses that strong budget institutions help improve fiscal balances and public external debt outcomes; and countries with stronger fiscal institutions have better scope to conduct countercyclical policies.

What Causes Firms to Hide Output? the Determinants of Informality

In many developing countries, a significant part of economic activity takes place in the informal sector. Earlier work has examined the determinants of the size of the informal sector, focusing separately on factors such as tax and regulation burden, financial market development, and the quality of the legal system. We revisit this issue by using an integrated dataset which contains rich information on all these aspects. Testing the channels affecting the degree of informality, we find evidence that all previously identified factors indeed play a role in driving informality. In particular, and consistent with the suggested theoretical model, we find support for the significance of the quality of the legal system.

The underground economy and its macroeconomic consequences

This study develops a dynamic general equilibrium model in which optimizing agents evade taxes by operating in the underground economy. The cost to firms of evading taxes is that they find themselves subject to credit rationing from banks. Our model simulations show that in the absence of budgetary flexibility to adjust expenditures, raising tax rates too high drives firms into the underground economy, thereby reducing the tax base. Aggregate investment in the economy is lowered because of credit rationing. Taxes that are too low eliminate the underground economy, but result in unsustainable budget and trade deficits. Thus, the optimal rate of taxation, from a macroeconomic point of view, may lead to some underground activity.

Issues in Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations in China

The paper reviews the changing nature of intergovernmental fiscal relations between the provinces and the central government in China over the past two decades and provides an assessment of the success of previous reforms in meeting their objectives. Key existing weaknesses in the current system that undermine these objectives are identified. Alternative instruments, procedures, rules, and incentives that could result in better outcomes are outlined by drawing upon relevant cross-country experiences.

Firm Productivity, Innovation, and Financial Development

How do firm-specific actions—in particular, innovation—affect firm productivity? What is the role of the financial sector in facilitating higher productivity? Using a rich firm-level data set, we find that innovation is crucial for firm performance as it directly and measurably increases productivity. The impact of innovation on productivity is larger in less-developed countries. Evidence of financial sector development influencing the innovation-productivity link is weak, but the effect is difficult to identify due to correlation between indicators of a countrys financial and nonfinancial development. Furthermore, we find evidence that the innovation effect on productivity is more significant for high-tech firms than for low-tech firms.

Bank Efficiency and Market Structure; What Determines Banking Spreads in Armenia?

Despite far-reaching banking sector reforms and a prolonged period of macroeconomic stability and strong economic growth, financial intermediation in Armenia has lagged behind other transition countries, and interest rate spreads have remained higher than in most Central and Eastern European transition countries. This paper examines the determinants of interest rate spreads and margins in Armenia using a bank-level panel dataset for the period 2002 to 2006. We find that bank-specific factors, such as bank size, liquidity, and market power, as well as the market structure within which banks operate, explain a large proportion of crossbank, cross-time variation in spreads and margins. The results suggest that there is a large potential to increase cost efficiency and competition in the banking system.

Too Cold, Too Hot, or Just Right? Assessing Financial Sector Development Across the Globe

This paper introduces the concept of the financial possibility frontier as a constrained optimum level of financial development to gauge the relative performance of financial systems across the globe. This frontier takes into account structural country characteristics, institutional, and macroeconomic factors that impact financial system deepening. We operationalize this framework using a benchmarking exercise, which relates the difference between the actual level of financial development and the level predicted by structural characteristics, to an array of policy variables. We also show that an overshooting of the financial system significantly beyond levels predicted by its structural fundamentals is associated with credit booms and busts.

Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Shocks, and Development Aid; New Evidence

We examine the cyclical properties of development aid using bilateral data for 22 donors and over 100 recipients during 1970‒2005. We find that bilateral aid flows are on average pro-cyclical with respect to business cycles in donor and recipient countries. However, they become counter-cyclical when recipient countries face large adverse shocks to the terms-of-trade or growth collapses - thus playing an important cushioning role. Aid outlays contract sharply during severe donor economic downturns; this effect is magnified by higher public debt levels. Additionally, bilateral aid flows are higher in the presence of IMF programs and are more counter-cyclical for recipient countries with stronger institutions.