Ercan Kose

Simulation of marine traffic in Istanbul Strait

Abstract The Turkish Straits, comprising the Strait of Canakkale, the Strait of Istanbul and the Sea of Marmara, are unique in many respects. The very narrow and winding shape of the strait, gives it river like characteristics, and it is an established fact that for mariners the Turkish Straits are one of the most hazardous, crowded, and potentially dangerous, waterways in the world. All the dangers and obstacles characteristic of narrow waterways are present and acute in this critical sea lane. In this research, the simulation of the Istanbul Strait was done under unique traffic conditions and results of this simulation, and the effects of probable increase in marine traffic due to new oil pipelines, are discussed.

Marine accident analysis for collision and grounding in oil tanker using FTA method

In this study, collision and grounding data registered in GISIS (Global Integrated Shipping Information System) were investigated for oil tankers. The database includes the information of the collision and grounding accidents during the period between 1998 and 2010 in oil tankers. The risk assessments were carried out using fault tree analysis (FTA) programme for the incidents as collision and grounding occurred in oil tankers. In this study, we were able to investigate first the potential problems which cause the collision and grounding accidents have been determined, second, the occurrence of accidents has been shown with causal factors by the FTA method, and, finally, the significance degree of the initial events causing occurrence of accidents have been put forth. Collision in oil tanker resulted in economical loss (81%), pollution (6%) and death or injury (13%). Grounding in oil tanker resulted in economical loss (91%) and pollution (9%). According to the FTA results, the main reason for the accidents originating from human error is as follows: for collision accidents, Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREG) violation and the lack of communication between vessels; and for grounding accidents, the interpretation failure of the officer on watch and lack of communication in the bridge resource management.

Finding risky areas for oil spillage after tanker accidents at Istanbul strait

The Istanbul strait, which is a part of Turkish Strait System (TSS), is a narrow and navigationally risky waterway for ships. This risk increases daily due to oil transportation from Central Asia and Russia. In this study, four high risk areas were identified after analysing accident statistics for the strait. Then, a simulation was run for 1,000 tonnes of oil spill at each station and the distribution of oil determined by using GNOMETM. Effective wind speed and direction were used at each scenario. As a result of these runs, risky areas were identified and necessary actions to minimise the effect of spill were discussed. Anadolu Kavagi, Buyukdere, Cengelkoy and Haydarpasa were identified as the high risk areas. In order to minimise the effect on these areas, having skimmers ready at Haydarpasa port and Buyukdere, and stocking barriers at other risky areas were found to be helpful for speedy action.

Simulation Model on Determining of Port Capacity and Queue Size: A Case Study for BOTAS Ceyhan Marine Terminal

Simulation programs are a useful and effective tool for analysis of projects requiring high investment costs, studies to improve the functioning of an existing system, and the analysis of the effectiveness and efficiency. They make it possible to control of system or substructure by less investment cost. Simulation models are often used in port modeling, capacity analysis, queue size and port efficiency. In this study, simulation model of loading terminals of the BOTAŞ Ceyhan pipeline were done. For this reason, AWESIM simulation program was used. This modeling evaluated for 365 days and each ship has approached the port with intervals of 12‐24, 12‐36, 24‐36 and 24‐48 hours. Stormy days in a year have been assumed as 30. Each ship demands trailer and pilotage service when approaching and leaving the port. In this simulation model; ship types, capacities, coming frequencies, loading times, maneuvering time and transportation capacity of BOTAŞ Ceyhan Marine Terminal were investigated. http://www.transnav.eu the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation Volume 8

The estimation of mean monthly discharges of the Karasu River using the Thomas-Fiering method

Hydrological forecasts are one of the most important aspects of applied hydrology. Such forecasts become increasingly necessary as the economy expands and utilisation of water resources in each country increases. Yet many of the requirements relating to hydrological forecasts cannot be fully satisfied at the present stage of the development of hydrology and meteorology. Hydrological forecasts are necessary in connection with the rational regulation of run-off, the utilisation of river energy, inland navigation, irrigation, water sports and water supplies. These forecasts are also of great importance in coping with dangerous phenomena and construction of hydraulic structures on rivers. The economic value of hydrological forecasts depends on their accuracy and the period of time they cover. The greater their accuracy and the longer the period they cover, the greater is their economic value in connection with planning electric power production, the operation of inland navigation, irrigation, water sports, etc. The aim of this study is to forecast the mean monthly discharges of the Karasu River in the eastern part of Turkey in the 2000 water year using the Thomas-Fiering model, which is a first order Markov model whose parameters change during the year. The stream gauging station whose mean monthly flow discharge will be estimated is Karasu River-Asagikagdiric (2154). All available data for monthly mean flow discharge are used to produce the synthetic data to enable the estimation to be made.

DUE TO THE HEAVY MARINE TRAFFIC AND ASSOCIATED RISK THE OIL SPILL SCENARIOS AT KANDILLI WHICH IS THE NARROWEST POINT IN ISTANBUL STRAIT

ABSTRACT The Istanbul strait, which is a part of Turkish Strait System (TSS), is a narrow and navigationally risky waterway for ships. This risk increases daily due to oil transportation from Central Asia and Russia. Over 50.000 vessels, on average, annually use the Turkish Straits. This is an increasing figure that occurred in the Istanbul Strait under the heavy marine traffic. In this study, the scenario was to run on Kandilli which is the narrowest part of the strait. This area is difficult for navigation due to inverse currents (which is referred to as Devils Current by the locals). Simulation was run for 500 tones of oil spill at Kandilli Point and distribution of oil was determined by using GNOME™. Effective wind speed and three different wind directions were used at each scenario. As a result of these runs, risky areas were identified and necessary actions to minimize the effect of spill were discussed. Cengelkoy, Arnavutkoy beaches and Sarayburnu were identified as the most risky areas. In order t...