Erdal Yalcin

Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis for Germany

Recent literature finds that exporters are particularly vulnerable to financial market frictions. As a consequence, exports may be lower than their efficient levels. For this reason, many countries support exporters by underwriting export credit guarantees. The empirical evidence on the effects of those policies is, however, very limited. In this paper, we use sectoral data on export credit guarantees issued by the German government. We investigate whether those guarantees indeed do increase exports and whether they remedy the export-restricting effect of credit market imperfections both on the sectoral and on the export-market levels. Exploiting the sectoral structure of a rich three-way panel data set of German exports, we control for unobserved heterogeneity on the country-year, sector-year and country-sector dimensions. We document a robust export-increasing effect of guarantees. There is some evidence that the effect is larger for export markets with poor financial institutions and in sectors that rely more on external finance.

Export Experience of Managers and the Internationalisation of Firms

As the firm gravitates to the core analysis of international trade models, the possibilities to learn from the theory of the multinational enterprise developed in international business studies increase. The managerial resources and capabilities that are so emphasized in this theory for export initiation have largely been neglected in the empirical studies of international trade. Probably not because they are unimportant, but rather because of the challenge to identify and measure them. We exploit Danish employer-employee matched data to overcome this barrier and analyze the impact of managers’ international experience together with other managerial characteristics on the likelihood that the firm starts exporting. We find that productivity and fixed costs associated to exporting are not the sole determinants of the selection of firms into international markets, but “managerial inputs” are as important. Our data allows us to identify managers’ export experience based on the CEOs’ historical career as documented in official registry statistics. This puts our study apart from earlier survey based studies which rely on self-assessments.