Erel Avineri

The Effect of Reference Point on Stochastic Network Equilibrium

Following studies of human decision making under risk and uncertainty, an extensive evidence of loss aversion and asymmetric risk-taking behavior around a reference point was found. Prospect theory proposes an alternative framework to the traditional risk-taking modeling in travel behavior, which might be too simplistic. This paper examines the possibility of applying prospect theory for modeling stochastic network equilibrium, and presents an investigation of the effect of reference point value on such equilibrium. Conceptual and methodological issues that could be addressed by further research in transportation research are suggested.

Identification of Parameters for a Prospect Theory Model for Travel Choice Analysis

Travelers’ responses to the risk and the uncertainty involved in their travel choices have been argued to be a research area that can be better addressed by use of a descriptive approach rather than a normative one. Prospect theory, a descriptive model of decision making under conditions of risk and uncertainty, has recently been incorporated into travel behavior modeling. This paper describes some of the major challenges that modelers face when they apply prospect theory to risky travel behavior contexts. In particular, the options available for determination of the values of crucial parameters for prospect theory travel choice models, such as the reference point and the loss aversion factor, are discussed. Prospect theory has originally been proposed to capture the observed choices between alternatives framed as lotteries and gambles and has fruitfully been applied to some settings in economics. However, because of some of the unique characteristics of travel journeys and the environment of decision making, the application of prospect theory to a travel choice context is not trivial. Modeling challenges because of a lack of consensus reference point values and other difficulties in setting values for other parameters are described, and several methodological approaches that can be used to set the values of parameters for prospect theory are suggested and illustrated.

Transportation projects selection process using fuzzy sets theory

Government transportation agencies are faced with the problem of efficiently selecting a subset of transportation projects for implementation. This selection process is based on multiple objectives which are often measured in incommensurable units. Usually, the problem is treated by neglecting or biasing the qualitative characteristics of the various projects. Moreover, the usual selection methods cannot deal effectively with the decision makers’ preferences or vagueness. Fuzzy sets theory is able to cope with inexact information, and therefore is believed to be an appropriate tool for use in the projects’ selection process. This work presents an efficient technique for the selection of transportation projects using fuzzy sets theory. The selection procedure is a multiple objectives process, and projects are rated both on a quantitative and qualitative basis, using linguistic variables. In order to describe appropriately a given transportation policy, both fuzzy weighted average and noncompensatory fuzzy decision rules are used in the proposed approach. In addition, this work contains a case study of a selection process of interurban road projects in Israel. The results of the proposed method, obtained by a fuzzy expert system, are compared with the results obtained by an ordinary crisp process.

Pedestrians' behaviour in cross walks: The effects of fear of falling and age

Pedestrians are exposed to risks when crossing roads in urban areas. The crossing behaviour of pedestrians was studied as a factor contributing to their exposure to risks on the road and to their involvement in road accidents. This work explores two specific aspects of crossing behaviour: crossing speed and head pitches-the proportion of time pedestrians point their heads down (rather than towards the traffic) when crossing a road. The last one is used as an indicator of the (lack of) attention to cross-traffic. We also explored the possible effect of fear of falling (FOF) among pedestrians, as it might be associated with slow walking, less attention to cross traffic, and more attention to the pavement and their footsteps. This paper reports on a field study that combined an observatory technique with short survey. 203 pedestrians in two sites (signalised and unsignalised crosswalks) were video recorded while crossing the road. The FOF of pedestrians and other measures of pedestrian behaviour at crosswalks were revealed by means of questionnaire. Age and gender had the most significant effects on crossing speed, and FOF had a significant effect on the proportion of downward head pitches during crossing.

Soft Computing Applications in Traffic and Transport Systems: A Review

The use of soft computing methodologies in the field of traffic and transport systems is of particular interest to researchers and practitioners due to their ability to handle quantitative and qualitative measures, and to efficiently solve problems which involve complexity, imprecision and uncertainty. This paper provides a survey of soft computing applications. A classification scheme for soft computing applications is defined. The current frameworks and some future directions of soft computing applications to traffic and transport systems are discussed.

On the potential for recognising of social interaction and social learning in modelling travellers' change of behaviour under uncertainty

This study aims to investigate the potential of incorporating social interaction and social learning in modelling travellers’ change of behaviour under uncertainty. The interdependent situation between travellers in using the road as a public good is considered a source of uncertainty to be studied. The role of social information in reducing the level of uncertainty is investigated. The research methodology utilises laboratory and simulation experiments. A social interdependence situation which is formulated as a hypothetical employer-based demand management initiative in reducing car use is used as the case study. A laboratory experiment demonstrates the dynamic processes of travel behaviour in making repeated travel decisions. Analyses on group and individual behaviours of travellers provide some indications about the existence of some types of social and individual learning mechanisms in their decision-making. The results of the laboratory experiment also provide basic information for developing a simulation model in the next stage of the study. The simulation experiment utilises an agent-based simulation model to simulate and analyse behaviours of individuals in larger environments, larger group sizes, longer time periods and various situational settings. The simulation experiments provide indications, which are supported by the evidence obtained from the laboratory experiment, that social information may have both positive and negative effects on individuals’ behaviour, depending on the form of social learning mechanisms that are used by travellers. Providing social information does not necessarily reduce the uncertainty level; however, it is shown to do so when social learning strongly exists among travellers.

Older People’s Attitudes to Road Charging: Are They Distinctive and What are the Implications for Policy?

Abstract In an ageing society older people have a growing influence on politics in general, and potentially on the acceptability of road charging in particular. They face specific types of risk of transport-related social exclusion which may influence their views on charging, although there is also evidence to suggest that older people favour, more than any other age group, what is positively valued by society – a process known as ‘pro-social value orientation’. Family and friends may also affect older peoples considerations about their intentions and choices – thus the importance of studying the influence of ‘social norms’ on older peoples attitudes to road charging. The paper develops our understanding of these issues, based on the findings of a quantitative survey conducted in Bristol, UK. Evidence indicates that the attitudes of older people to road charging do differ from those of younger people and that pro-social value orientations and social norms do contribute to the formation of these attitudes. It is concluded that the presence of pro-social attitude orientations assists in explaining why people assumed to be ‘natural supporters’ of charging schemes may hold negative attitudes, which underlines to scheme promoters the importance of understanding and overcoming strongly held, psychologically complex objections.

Chapter 12 The Role of Information in Reducing the Impacts of Climate Change for Transport Applications

Originality/value – The chapter examines how travel information could go beyond the provision of trip choice data and incorporate contextual elements to make it more effective. Concepts related to the Transtheoretical Model (stages of change) and the latest thinking in behavioural economics are discussed in relation to an increase in the likelihood of environmental travel alternatives being considered and chosen.

Incorporating Fuzzy Reference Points into Applications of Travel Choice Modeling

The uncertainties involved in travel alternatives have an effect on travelers’ choices, however travel choice models and commercial applications have limitations in capturing the uncertainty in the mind of the travelers. Travelers’ preferences, as revealed in field studies and laboratory studies, are generally supported by the robust findings of Prospect Theory, a descriptive model of individual choice under risk and uncertainty. Prospect Theory models responses to risky situations framed as ‘gains’ and ‘losses’ defined over a reference point. However, different from choices made in economic/financial contexts, the concepts of ‘winning’ or ‘loosing’ in a travel choice context may be considered to be fuzzy rather than crisp. Extending the principles of prospect theory, this paper introduces a model based on a fuzzy representation of the travel time’s reference point in the mind of the traveler.

User' interpretation of travel information and implications for system design

This paper provides a vision that sketches insights from behavioural economics, and illustrates their potential use in the design of travel information systems, with a specific focus on personal mobile applications.