Eric D. Galbraith

Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business‐as‐usual CO2 emission scenario until year 4000 AD

A new model of global climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling, including a fully coupled carbon cycle, is presented and evaluated. The model is consistent with multiple observational data sets from the past 50 years as well as with the observed warming of global surface air and sea temperatures during the last 150 years. It is applied to a simulation of the coming two millennia following a business-as-usual scenario of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (SRES A2 until year 2100 and subsequent linear decrease to zero until year 2300, corresponding to a total release of 5100 GtC). Atmospheric CO2 increases to a peak of more than 2000 ppmv near year 2300 (that is an airborne fraction of 72% of the emissions) followed by a gradual decline to ∼1700 ppmv at year 4000 (airborne fraction of 56%). Forty-four percent of the additional atmospheric CO2 at year 4000 is due to positive carbon cycle–climate feedbacks. Global surface air warms by ∼10°C, sea ice melts back to 10% of its current area, and the circulation of the abyssal ocean collapses. Subsurface oxygen concentrations decrease, tripling the volume of suboxic water and quadrupling the global water column denitrification. We estimate 60 ppb increase in atmospheric N2O concentrations owing to doubling of its oceanic production, leading to a weak positive feedback and contributing about 0.24°C warming at year 4000. Global ocean primary production almost doubles by year 4000. Planktonic biomass increases at high latitudes and in the subtropics whereas it decreases at midlatitudes and in the tropics. In our model, which does not account for possible direct impacts of acidification on ocean biology, production of calcium carbonate in the surface ocean doubles, further increasing surface ocean and atmospheric pCO2. This represents a new positive feedback mechanism and leads to a strengthening of the positive interaction between climate change and the carbon cycle on a multicentennial to millennial timescale. Changes in ocean biology become important for the ocean carbon uptake after year 2600, and at year 4000 they account for 320 ppmv or 22% of the atmospheric CO2 increase since the preindustrial era.

Carbon dioxide release from the North Pacific abyss during the last deglaciation.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were significantly lower during glacial periods than during intervening interglacial periods, but the mechanisms responsible for this difference remain uncertain. Many recent explanations call on greater carbon storage in a poorly ventilated deep ocean during glacial periods, but direct evidence regarding the ventilation and respired carbon content of the glacial deep ocean is sparse and often equivocal. Here we present sedimentary geochemical records from sites spanning the deep subarctic Pacific that—together with previously published results—show that a poorly ventilated water mass containing a high concentration of respired carbon dioxide occupied the North Pacific abyss during the Last Glacial Maximum. Despite an inferred increase in deep Southern Ocean ventilation during the first step of the deglaciation (18,000–15,000 years ago), we find no evidence for improved ventilation in the abyssal subarctic Pacific until a rapid transition ∼14,600 years ago: this change was accompanied by an acceleration of export production from the surface waters above but only a small increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. We speculate that these changes were mechanistically linked to a roughly coeval increase in deep water formation in the North Atlantic, which flushed respired carbon dioxide from northern abyssal waters, but also increased the supply of nutrients to the upper ocean, leading to greater carbon dioxide sequestration at mid-depths and stalling the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Our findings are qualitatively consistent with hypotheses invoking a deglacial flushing of respired carbon dioxide from an isolated, deep ocean reservoir, but suggest that the reservoir may have been released in stages, as vigorous deep water ventilation switched between North Atlantic and Southern Ocean source regions.

Glacial greenhouse-gas fluctuations controlled by ocean circulation changes

Earth’s climate and the concentrations of the atmospheric greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) varied strongly on millennial timescales during past glacial periods. Large and rapid warming events in Greenland and the North Atlantic were followed by more gradual cooling, and are highly correlated with fluctuations of N2O as recorded in ice cores. Antarctic temperature variations, on the other hand, were smaller and more gradual, showed warming during the Greenland cold phase and cooling while the North Atlantic was warm, and were highly correlated with fluctuations in CO2. Abrupt changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) have often been invoked to explain the physical characteristics of these Dansgaard–Oeschger climate oscillations, but the mechanisms for the greenhouse-gas variations and their linkage to the AMOC have remained unclear. Here we present simulations with a coupled model of glacial climate and biogeochemical cycles, forced only with changes in the AMOC. The model simultaneously reproduces characteristic features of the Dansgaard–Oeschger temperature, as well as CO2 and N2O fluctuations. Despite significant changes in the land carbon inventory, CO2 variations on millennial timescales are dominated by slow changes in the deep ocean inventory of biologically sequestered carbon and are correlated with Antarctic temperature and Southern Ocean stratification. In contrast, N2O co-varies more rapidly with Greenland temperatures owing to fast adjustments of the thermocline oxygen budget. These results suggest that ocean circulation changes were the primary mechanism that drove glacial CO2 and N2O fluctuations on millennial timescales.

A review of nitrogen isotopic alteration in marine sediments

Key Points: Use of sedimentary nitrogen isotopes is examined; On average, sediment 15N/14N increases approx. 2 per mil during early burial; Isotopic alteration scales with water depth Abstract: Nitrogen isotopes are an important tool for evaluating past biogeochemical cycling from the paleoceanographic record. However, bulk sedimentary nitrogen isotope ratios, which can be determined routinely and at minimal cost, may be altered during burial and early sedimentary diagenesis, particularly outside of continental margin settings. The causes and detailed mechanisms of isotopic alteration are still under investigation. Case studies of the Mediterranean and South China Seas underscore the complexities of investigating isotopic alteration. In an effort to evaluate the evidence for alteration of the sedimentary N isotopic signal and try to quantify the net effect, we have compiled and compared data demonstrating alteration from the published literature. A >100 point comparison of sediment trap and surface sedimentary nitrogen isotope values demonstrates that, at sites located off of the continental margins, an increase in sediment 15N/14N occurs during early burial, likely at the seafloor. The extent of isotopic alteration appears to be a function of water depth. Depth-related differences in oxygen exposure time at the seafloor are likely the dominant control on the extent of N isotopic alteration. Moreover, the compiled data suggest that the degree of alteration is likely to be uniform through time at most sites so that bulk sedimentary isotope records likely provide a good means for evaluating relative changes in the global N cycle.

Simulating the global distribution of nitrogen isotopes in the ocean

9 isotopes, 14 N and 15 N, in the nitrate (NO3 ), phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detritus 10 variables of the marine ecosystem model. The isotope effects of algal NO3 uptake, 11 nitrogen fixation, water column denitrification, and zooplankton excretion are considered 12 as well as the removal of NO3 by sedimentary denitrification. A global database of 13 d 15 NO3 observations is compiled from previous studies and compared to the model 14 results on a regional basis where sufficient observations exist. The model is able to 15 qualitatively and quantitatively reproduce many of the observed patterns such as high 16 subsurface values in water column denitrification zones and the meridional and vertical 17 gradients in the Southern Ocean. The observed pronounced subsurface minimum in the 18 Atlantic is underestimated by the model presumably owing to too little simulated 19 nitrogen fixation there. Sensitivity experiments reveal that algal NO3 uptake, nitrogen 20 fixation, and water column denitrification have the strongest effects on the simulated 21 distribution of nitrogen isotopes, whereas the effect from zooplankton excretion is 22 weaker. Both water column and sedimentary denitrification also have important indirect 23 effects on the nitrogen isotope distribution by reducing the fixed nitrogen inventory, 24 which creates an ecological niche for nitrogen fixers and, thus, stimulates additional N2 25 fixation in the model. Important model deficiencies are identified, and strategies for 26 future improvement and possibilities for model application are outlined.

Large fluctuations of dissolved oxygen in the Indian and Pacific oceans during Dansgaard‐Oeschger oscillations caused by variations of North Atlantic Deep Water subduction

A.S. and S.H. were supported by the paleoclimate program of the National Science Foundation as part of the PALEOVAR project (ATM-0602395).

How well do global ocean biogeochemistry models simulate dissolved iron distributions

Numerical models of ocean biogeochemistry are relied upon to make projections about the impact of climate change on marine resources and test hypotheses regarding the drivers of past changes in climate and ecosystems. In large areas of the ocean, iron availability regulates the functioning of marine ecosystems and hence the ocean carbon cycle. Accordingly, our ability to quantify the drivers and impacts of fluctuations in ocean ecosystems and carbon cycling in space and time relies on first achieving an appropriate representation of the modern marine iron cycle in models. When the iron distributions from 13 global ocean biogeochemistry models are compared against the latest oceanic sections from the GEOTRACES program, we find that all models struggle to reproduce many aspects of the observed spatial patterns. Models that reflect the emerging evidence for multiple iron sources or subtleties of its internal cycling perform much better in capturing observed features than their simpler contemporaries, particularly in the ocean interior. We show that the substantial uncertainty in the input fluxes of iron results in a very wide range of residence times across models, which has implications for the response of ecosystems and global carbon cycling to perturbations. Given this large uncertainty, iron fertilization experiments based on any single current generation model should be interpreted with caution. Improvements to how such models represent iron scavenging and also biological cycling are needed to raise confidence in their projections of global biogeochemical change in the ocean.

Covariation of deep Southern Ocean oxygenation and atmospheric CO2 through the last ice age

No single mechanism can account for the full amplitude of past atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration variability over glacial–interglacial cycles. A build-up of carbon in the deep ocean has been shown to have occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum. However, the mechanisms responsible for the release of the deeply sequestered carbon to the atmosphere at deglaciation, and the relative importance of deep ocean sequestration in regulating millennial-timescale variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration before the Last Glacial Maximum, have remained unclear. Here we present sedimentary redox-sensitive trace-metal records from the Antarctic Zone of the Southern Ocean that provide a reconstruction of transient changes in deep ocean oxygenation and, by inference, respired carbon storage throughout the last glacial cycle. Our data suggest that respired carbon was removed from the abyssal Southern Ocean during the Northern Hemisphere cold phases of the deglaciation, when atmospheric CO2 concentration increased rapidly, reflecting—at least in part—a combination of dwindling iron fertilization by dust and enhanced deep ocean ventilation. Furthermore, our records show that the observed covariation between atmospheric CO2 concentration and abyssal Southern Ocean oxygenation was maintained throughout most of the past 80,000 years. This suggests that on millennial timescales deep ocean circulation and iron fertilization in the Southern Ocean played a consistent role in modifying atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Climate Variability and Radiocarbon in the CM2Mc Earth System Model

AbstractThe distribution of radiocarbon (14C) in the ocean and atmosphere has fluctuated on time scales ranging from seasons to millennia. It is thought that these fluctuations partly reflect variability in the climate system, offering a rich potential source of information to help understand mechanisms of past climate change. Here, a long simulation with a new, coupled model is used to explore the mechanisms that redistribute 14C within the earth system on interannual to centennial time scales. The model, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2 (GFDL CM2) with Modular Ocean Model version 4p1(MOM4p1) at coarse-resolution (CM2Mc), is a lower-resolution version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s CM2M model, uses no flux adjustments, and is run here with a simple prognostic ocean biogeochemistry model including 14C. The atmospheric 14C and radiative boundary conditions are held constant so that the oceanic distribution of 14C is only a function of internal climate variab...

A simple nutrient-dependence mechanism for predicting the stoichiometry of marine ecosystems

Significance The elemental ratios of nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon in marine phytoplankton can diverge significantly from the “Redfield ratio,” but the underlying reasons have been hard to elucidate. As a result, global biogeochemical models often ignore this stoichiometric variability. Here we show that, hidden within the noise of a large dataset of particulate measurements, a surprisingly consistent relationship exists between community P:C and dissolved phosphate concentrations. The plasticity of ecosystem stoichiometry in the face of nutrient scarcity, with greater plasticity for P relative to N, appears to explain the main divergences from the Redfield ratio. When included in a simple model, the relationship implies a more important role for low latitude nutrient cycling in the biological pump than is commonly assumed. It is widely recognized that the stoichiometry of nutrient elements in phytoplankton varies within the ocean. However, there are many conflicting mechanistic explanations for this variability, and it is often ignored in global biogeochemical models and carbon cycle simulations. Here we show that globally distributed particulate P:C varies as a linear function of ambient phosphate concentrations, whereas the N:C varies with ambient nitrate concentrations, but only when nitrate is most scarce. This observation is consistent with the adjustment of the phytoplankton community to local nutrient availability, with greater flexibility of phytoplankton P:C because P is a less abundant cellular component than N. This simple relationship is shown to predict the large-scale, long-term average composition of surface particles throughout large parts of the ocean remarkably well. The relationship implies that most of the observed variation in N:P actually arises from a greater plasticity in the cellular P:C content, relative to N:C, such that as overall macronutrient concentrations decrease, N:P rises. Although other mechanisms are certainly also relevant, this simple relationship can be applied as a first-order basis for predicting organic matter stoichiometry in large-scale biogeochemical models, as illustrated using a simple box model. The results show that including variable P:C makes atmospheric CO2 more sensitive to changes in low latitude export and ocean circulation than a fixed-stoichiometry model. In addition, variable P:C weakens the relationship between preformed phosphate and atmospheric CO2 while implying a more important role for the nitrogen cycle.