Eric D. Rappin

Diagnosing Initial Condition Sensitivity of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) and Hurricane Ike (2008)

AbstractThe response of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model predictions of two tropical cyclones to perturbations in the initial conditions is investigated. Local perturbations to the vorticity field in the synoptic environment are created in features considered subjectively to be of importance to the track forecast. The rebalanced analysis is then integrated forward and compared with an unperturbed “control” simulation possessing similar errors to those in the corresponding operational model forecasts. In the first case, Typhoon Sinlaku (2008), the premature recurvature in the control simulation is found to be corrected by a variety of initial perturbations; in particular, the weakening of an upper-level low directly to its north, and the weakening of a remote short-wave trough in the midlatitude storm track. It is suggested that one or both of the short waves may have been initialized too strongly. In the second case, the forecasts for Hurricane Ike (2008) initialized 4 days prior to its landfa...

A Highly Configurable Vortex Initialization Method for Tropical Cyclones

AbstractA highly configurable vortex initialization methodology has been constructed in order to permit manipulation of the initial vortex structure in numerical models of tropical cyclones. By using distinct specifications of the flow in the boundary layer and free atmosphere, an array of parameters is available to modify the structure. A nonlinear similarity model that solves the steady-state, height-dependent equations for a neutrally stratified, axisymmetric vortex is solved for the boundary layer flow. Above the boundary layer, a steady-state, moist-neutral, hydrostatic and gradient wind balanced model is used to generate the angular momentum distribution in the free atmosphere. In addition, an unbalanced mass-conserving secondary circulation is generated through the assumption of conservation of mass and angular momentum above the boundary layer. Numerical simulations are conducted using a full-physics mesoscale model to explore the sensitivity of the vortex evolution to different prescriptions of t...