Eric D. Swain

An integrated multi-criteria scenario evaluation web tool for participatory land-use planning in urbanized areas: The Ecosystem Portfolio Model

Land-use land-cover change is one of the most important and direct drivers of changes in ecosystem functions and services. Given the complexity of the decision-making, there is a need for Internet-based decision support systems with scenario evaluation capabilities to help planners, resource managers and communities visualize, compare and consider trade-offs among the many values at stake in land use planning. This article presents details on an Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype that integrates ecological, socio-economic information and associated values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multi-criteria scenario evaluation framework, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit land-use/land-cover change-sensitive models to characterize changes in important land-cover related ecosystem values related to ecosystem services and functions, land parcel prices, and community quality-of-life (QoL) metrics. Parameters in the underlying models can be modified through the interface, allowing users in a facilitated group setting to explore simultaneously issues of scientific uncertainty and divergence in the preferences of stakeholders. One application of the South Florida EPM prototype reported in this article shows the modeled changes (which are significant) in aggregate ecological value, landscape patterns and fragmentation, biodiversity potential and ecological restoration potential for current land uses compared to the 2050 land-use scenario. Ongoing refinements to EPM, and future work especially in regard to modifiable sea level rise scenarios are also discussed.

Use of Hydrologic and Hydrodynamic Modeling for Ecosystem Restoration

Planning and implementation of unprecedented projects for restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem are underway and the hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling of restoration alternatives has become essential for success of restoration efforts. In view of the complex nature of the South Florida water resources system, regional-scale (system-wide) hydrologic models have been developed and used extensively for the development of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. In addition, numerous subregional-scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models have been developed and are being used for evaluating project-scale water management plans associated with urban, agricultural, and inland costal ecosystems. The authors provide a comprehensive summary of models of all scales, as well as the next generation models under development to meet the future needs of ecosystem restoration efforts in South Florida. The multiagency efforts to develop and apply models have allowed the agencies to understand the complex hydrologic interactions, quantify appropriate performance measures, and use new technologies in simulation algorithms, software development, and GIS/database techniques to meet the future modeling needs of the ecosystem restoration programs.

Evaluation of habitat suitability index models by global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: a case study for submerged aquatic vegetation

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models are commonly used to predict habitat quality and species distributions and are used to develop biological surveys, assess reserve and management priorities, and anticipate possible change under different management or climate change scenarios. Important management decisions may be based on model results, often without a clear understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with model outputs. We present an integrated methodology to assess the propagation of uncertainty from both inputs and structure of the HSI models on model outputs (uncertainty analysis: UA) and relative importance of uncertain model inputs and their interactions on the model output uncertainty (global sensitivity analysis: GSA). We illustrate the GSA/UA framework using simulated hydrology input data from a hydrodynamic model representing sea level changes and HSI models for two species of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in southwest Everglades National Park: Vallisneria americana (tape grass) and Halodule wrightii (shoal grass). We found considerable spatial variation in uncertainty for both species, but distributions of HSI scores still allowed discrimination of sites with good versus poor conditions. Ranking of input parameter sensitivities also varied spatially for both species, with high habitat quality sites showing higher sensitivity to different parameters than low-quality sites. HSI models may be especially useful when species distribution data are unavailable, providing means of exploiting widely available environmental datasets to model past, current, and future habitat conditions. The GSA/UA approach provides a general method for better understanding HSI model dynamics, the spatial and temporal variation in uncertainties, and the parameters that contribute most to model uncertainty. Including an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in modeling efforts as part of the decision-making framework will result in better-informed, more robust decisions.

Measurement-derived heat-budget approaches for simulating coastal wetland temperature with a hydrodynamic model

Numerical modeling is needed to predict environmental temperatures, which affect a number of biota in southern Florida, U.S.A., such as the West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus), which uses thermal basins for refuge from lethal winter cold fronts. To numerically simulate heat-transport through a dynamic coastal wetland region, an algorithm was developed for the FTLOADDS coupled hydrodynamic surface-water/ground-water model that uses formulations and coefficients suited to the coastal wetland thermal environment. In this study, two field sites provided atmospheric data to develop coefficients for the heat flux terms representing this particular study area. Several methods were examined to represent the heat-flux components used to compute temperature. A Dalton equation was compared with a Penman formulation for latent heat computations, producing similar daily-average temperatures. Simulation of heat-transport in the southern Everglades indicates that the model represents the daily fluctuation in coastal temperatures better than at inland locations; possibly due to the lack of information on the spatial variations in heat-transport parameters such as soil heat capacity and surface albedo. These simulation results indicate that the new formulation is suitable for defining the existing thermohydrologic system and evaluating the ecological effect of proposed restoration efforts in the southern Everglades of Florida.

Numerical computation of hurricane effects on historic coastal hydrology in Southern Florida

IntroductionNumerical models are critical for assessing the effects of sea level rise (SLR), hurricanes, and storm surge on vegetation change in the Everglades National Park. The model must be capable of representing short-timescale hydrodynamics, salinity transport, and groundwater interaction. However, there is also a strong need to adapt these numerical models to hindcast past conditions in order to examine long-term effects on the distribution of vegetation that cannot be determined using only the modern record.MethodsBased on parameters developed for a numerical model developed for the recent 1996 to 2004 period, a hindcast model was developed to represent sea level and water management for the period of 1926 to 1932, constrained by the limited hydrology and meteorology data available from the historic past. Realistic hurricane-wind and storm surge representations, required for the hindcast model, are based on information synthesized from modern storm data. A series of simulation scenarios with various hurricane representations inserted into both hindcast and recent numerical models were used to assess the utility of the storm representation in the model and compare the two simulations.ResultsThe comparison of the hindcast and recent models showed differences in the hydrology patterns that are consistent with known differences in water delivery systems and sea level rise. A 30× lower-resolution spatially variable wind grid for the hindcast produced similar results to the original high-resolution full wind grid representation of the recent simulation. Storm effects on hydrologic patterns demonstrated with the simulations show hydrologic processes that could have a long-term effect on vegetation change.ConclusionsThe hindcast simulation estimated hydrologic processes for the 1926 to 1932 period. It shows promise as a simulator in long-term ecological studies to test hypotheses based on theoretical or empirical-based studies at larger landscape scales.

Assessing Factors Affecting the Thermal Properties of a Passive Thermal Refuge Using Three-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Flow and Transport Modeling

AbstractEverglades restoration activities may cause changes to temperature and salinity stratification at the Port of the Islands (POI) marina, which could affect its suitability as a cold weather refuge for manatees. To better understand how the Picayune Strand Restoration Project (PSRP) may alter this important resource in Collier County in southwestern Florida, the USGS has developed a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for the marina and canal system at POI. Empirical data suggest that manatees aggregate at the site during winter because of thermal inversions that provide warmer water near the bottom that appears to only occur in the presence of salinity stratification. To study these phenomena, the environmental fluid dynamics code simulator was used to represent temperature and salinity transport within POI. Boundary inputs were generated using a larger two-dimensional model constructed with the flow and transport in a linked overland-aquifer density-dependent system simulator. Model results for a...

Utilizing Spectral Analysis of Coastal Discharge Computed by a Numerical Model to Determine Boundary Influence

Abstract In the present study, a spectral analysis was applied to field data and a numerical model of southeastern Everglades and northeastern Florida Bay that involved computing and comparing the power spectrum of simulated and measured flows at the primary coastal outflow creek. Four dominant power frequencies, corresponding to the S1, S2, M2, and O1 tidal periods, were apparent in the measured outflows. The model seemed to reproduce the magnitudes of the S1 and S2 components better than those of the M2 and O1 components. To determine the cause of the relatively poor representation of the M2 and O1 components, we created a steady-base version of the model by setting the time-varying forcing functions—rainfall, evapotranspiration, wind, and inland and tidal boundary conditions—to averaged values. The steady-base model was then modified to produce multiple simulations with only one time-varying forcing function for each model run. These experimental simulations approximated the individual effects of each forcing function on the system. The spectral analysis of the experimental simulations indicated that temporal fluctuations in rainfall, evapotranspiration, and inland water level and discharge boundaries have negligible effects on coastal creek flow fluctuations with periods of less than 48 hours. The tidal boundary seems to be the only forcing function inducing the M2 and O1 frequency flow fluctuations in the creek. An analytical formulation was developed, relating the errors induced by the tidal water-level gauge resolution to the errors in the simulated discharge fluctuations at the coastal creek. This formulation yielded a discharge-fluctuation error similar in magnitude to the errors observed when comparing the spectrum of the simulated and measured discharge. The dominant source of error in the simulation of discharge fluctuation magnitude is most likely the resolution of the water-level gauges used to create the model boundary.