Eric J. Anderson

Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions

In 2011, Lake Erie experienced the largest harmful algal bloom in its recorded history, with a peak intensity over three times greater than any previously observed bloom. Here we show that long-term trends in agricultural practices are consistent with increasing phosphorus loading to the western basin of the lake, and that these trends, coupled with meteorological conditions in spring 2011, produced record-breaking nutrient loads. An extended period of weak lake circulation then led to abnormally long residence times that incubated the bloom, and warm and quiescent conditions after bloom onset allowed algae to remain near the top of the water column and prevented flushing of nutrients from the system. We further find that all of these factors are consistent with expected future conditions. If a scientifically guided management plan to mitigate these impacts is not implemented, we can therefore expect this bloom to be a harbinger of future blooms in Lake Erie.

Real-Time Hydraulic and Hydrodynamic Model of the St. Clair River, Lake St. Clair, Detroit River System

The Huron-Erie Corridor serves as a major waterway in the Great Lakes and is the connecting channel between Lake Huron and Lake Erie. The system consists of the St. Clair River, Lake St. Clair, and the Detroit River, and serves as a recreational waterway, source of drinking water for Detroit and surrounding cities, as well as the only shipping channel to Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior. This paper describes a three-dimensional unsteady model of the combined system and its application to real-time predictions of physical conditions over the corridor. The hydrodynamic model produces nowcasts eight times per day and 48 h forecasts twice a day. Comparisons between model simulations and observed values show average differences of 3 cm for water levels and 12 cm/s for along-channel currents in the St. Clair River (compared to mean current values of 1.7 m/s) for the period of September 2007 to August 2008. Simulations reveal a spatially and temporally variable circulation in Lake St. Clair as well as significant changes in flow rate and distribution through the St. Clair Delta not accounted for in previous models.

Surface storage dynamics in large rivers: Comparing three‐dimensional particle transport, one‐dimensional fractional derivative, and multirate transient storage models

[1]xa0Large rivers are major conduits for sediment and nutrient transport and play an important role in global biogeochemical cycles. While smaller rivers received attention in recent decades for hyporheic exchange and nutrient uptake, fewer studies have focused on the dynamics of surface storage zones in large rivers. We investigate transport dynamics in the St. Clair River, an international river straddling the U.S.–Canadian border, using a combination of modeling and dye tracer studies. We describe a calibrated three-dimensional hydrodynamic model to generate (synthetic) breakthrough data to evaluate several classes of 1-D solute transport models for their ability to describe surface storage dynamics. Breakthrough data from the 3-D particle transport model exhibited multimodal behavior and complex dynamics that could not be described using a single first-order exchange coefficient—an approach often used to describe surface storage in transient storage models for small rivers. The 1-D models examined include multirate transient storage (MRTS) models in which storage zones were arranged either in series or parallel as well as 1-D models based on fractional derivatives. Results indicate that for 1-D models to describe data adequately, the timing of solute pulses that correspond to various in-channel features such as sandbars, islands or meander bends should be taken into account. As a result, the MRTS model with storage zones arranged in series (i.e., exchange rates triggered sequentially) provided the best description of the data. In contrast, fractional derivative models that assume storage zones were arranged in parallel failed to capture the multimodal nature of the breakthrough curves.

Summer circulation and exchange in the Saginaw Bay‐Lake Huron system

We use a three-dimensional, unstructured grid hydrodynamic model to examine circulation and exchange in the Saginaw Bay-Lake Huron system during the summer months for three consecutive years (2009–2011). The model was tested against ADCP observations of currents, data from a Lagrangian drifter experiment in the Saginaw Bay, and temperature data from the National Data Buoy Center stations. Mean circulation was predominantly cyclonic in the main basin of Lake Huron with current speeds in the surface layer being highest in August. Circulation in the Saginaw Bay was characterized by the presence of an anticyclonic gyre at the mouth of the outer bay and two recirculating cells within the inner bay. New estimates are provided for the mean flushing times (computed as the volume of the bay divided by the rate of inflow) and residence times (computed as e-folding flushing times based on dye concentration modeling treating the bay as a continuously stirred tank reactor) for Saginaw Bay. The average flushing time (over the 3 months of summer and for all 3 years) was 23.0 days for the inner bay and 9.9 days for the entire bay. The mean e-folding flushing time was 62 days (2 months) for the inner bay and 115 days (3.7 months) for the entire bay for the summer conditions examined in this work. To characterize the behavior of river plumes in the inner Saginaw Bay, trajectory data from GPS-enabled Lagrangian drifters were used to compute the absolute diffusivity values in the alongshore and cross-shore directions.

Investigation of interbasin exchange and interannual variability in Lake Erie using an unstructured‐grid hydrodynamic model

Interbasin exchange and interannual variability in Lake Eries three basins are investigated with the help of a three-dimensional unstructured-grid-based Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM). Experiments were carried out to investigate the influence of grid resolutions and different sources of wind forcing on the lake dynamics. Based on the calibrated model, we investigated the sensitivity of lake dynamics to major external forcing, and seasonal climatological circulation patterns are presented and compared with the observational data and existing model results. It was found that water exchange between the western basin (WB) and the central basin (CB) was mainly driven by hydraulic and density-driven flows, while density-driven flows dominate the interaction between the CB and the eastern basin (EB). River-induced hydraulic flows magnify the eastward water exchange and impede the westward one. Surface wind forcing shifts the pathway of hydraulic flows in the WB, determines the gyre pattern in the CB, contributes to thermal mixing, and magnifies interbasin water exchange during winter. Interannual variability is mainly driven by the differences in atmospheric forcing, and is most prominent in the CB.

Reconstruction of a meteotsunami in Lake Erie on 27 May 2012: Roles of atmospheric conditions on hydrodynamic response in enclosed basins

On 27 May 2012, atmospheric conditions gave rise to two convective systems that generated a series of waves in the meteotsunami band on Lake Erie. The resulting waves swept three swimmers a 0.5 mi offshore, inundated a marina, and may have led to a capsized boat along the southern shoreline. Analysis of radial velocities from a nearby radar tower in combination with coastal meteorological observation indicates that the convective systems produced a series of outflow bands that were the likely atmospheric cause of the meteotsunami. In order to explain the processes that led to meteotsunami generation, we model the hydrodynamic response to three meteorological forcing scenarios: (i) the reconstructed atmospheric disturbance from radar analysis, (ii) simulated conditions from a high-resolution weather model, and (iii) interpolated meteorological conditions from the NOAA Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System. The results reveal that the convective systems generated a series of waves incident to the southern shore of the lake that reflected toward the northern shoreline and reflected again to the southern shore, resulting in spatial wave focusing and edge wave formation that combined to impact recreational users near Cleveland, OH. This study illustrates the effects of meteotsunami development in an enclosed basin, including wave reflection, focusing, and edge wave formation as well as temporal lags between the causative atmospheric conditions and arrival of dangerous wave conditions. As a result, the ability to detect these extreme storms and predict the hydrodynamic response is crucial to reducing risk and building resilient coastal communities.

Vertical distribution of buoyant Microcystis blooms in a Lagrangian particle tracking model for short‐term forecasts in Lake Erie

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CHABs) are a problem in western Lake Erie, and in eutrophic fresh waters worldwide. Western Lake Erie is a large (3000 km2), shallow (8 m mean depth), freshwater system. CHABs occur from July to October, when stratification is intermittent in response to wind and surface heating or cooling (polymictic). Existing forecast models give the present location and extent of CHABs from satellite imagery, then predict two-dimensional (surface) CHAB movement in response to meteorology. In this study, we simulated vertical distribution of buoyant Microcystis colonies, and 3-D advection, using a Lagrangian particle model forced by currents and turbulent diffusivity from the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM). We estimated the frequency distribution of Microcystis colony buoyant velocity from measured size distributions and buoyant velocities. We evaluated several random-walk numerical schemes to efficiently minimize particle accumulation artifacts. We selected the Milstein scheme, with linear interpolation of the diffusivity profile in place of cubic splines, and varied the time step at each particle and step based on the curvature of the local diffusivity profile to ensure that the Visser time step criterion was satisfied. Inclusion of vertical mixing with buoyancy significantly improved model skill statistics compared to an advection-only model, and showed greater skill than a persistence forecast through simulation day 6, in a series of 26 hindcast simulations from 2011. The simulations and in situ observations show the importance of subtle thermal structure, typical of a polymictic lake, along with buoyancy in determining vertical and horizontal distribution of Microcystis.

Oil-spill fishery impact assessment model: Application to selected Georges Bank fish species

Abstract An oil-spill fishery impact assessment model composed of an oil-spill fates model, a shelf hydrodynamics model, an ichthyoplankton transport and fate model, and a fishery population model originally developed by Reed & Spaulding, has been improved and applied to the Georges Bank-Gulf of Maine region to assess the probable impact of oil spills on several key fisheries. The model addresses direct impacts of oil on the commercial fishery through hydrocarbon-induced egg and larval mortality. This early life stage hydrocarbon-induced mortality is estimated by assuming a toxicity threshold approach and by mapping the spatial/temporal interaction between the subsurface oil concentrations caused by the spill and the developing eggs and larvae. Model output is given in terms of differential catch, with a comparison made of hydrocarbon-impacted fisheries. Simulations of tanker and blowout spills at two separate locations for each season of the year in the Outer Continental Shelf lease areas have been completed for Atlantic herring, haddock, and Atlantic cod. Results to date suggest a complex interaction among spill location and timing, the spatial and temporal spawning distribution of the species, and the hydrodynamics of the area. The largest impacts occur for spring and winter spills.

Oil spill fishery impact assessment model: Sensitivity to spill location and timing

Abstract An oil spill fishery impact assessment model system has been applied to the Georges Bank-Gulf of Maine region to assess the sensitivity of probable impact on several key fisheries to spill location and timing. Simulations of the impact on the fishery of tanker spills (20 million gallons released over 5 days), at two separate locations for each season of the year, and blowout spills (68 million gallons released over 30 days) at one location, with monthly releases and at six other locations with seasonal spills have been studied. Atlantic cod has been employed as the principal fish species throughout the simulations. Impacts on Atlantic herring and haddock have also been investigated for selected cases. All spill sites are located on Georges Bank with the majority in the general region of OCS leasing activity. The results of these simulations suggest a complex interaction among spill location and timing, the spatial and temporal distribution of spawning, the population dynamics of the species under study, and the hydrodynamics of the area. For the species studied, spills occurring during the winter and spring have the largest impact with cod being the most heavily impacted followed by haddock and herring. In all cases, the maximum cumulative loss to the fishery of a one time spill event never exceeded 25% of the annual catch with the exact value depending on the number of ichthyoplankton impacted by the spill and the compensatory dynamics of the population.

Meteotsunamis in the laurentian great lakes

The generation mechanism of meteotsunamis, which are meteorologically induced water waves with spatial/temporal characteristics and behavior similar to seismic tsunamis, is poorly understood. We quantify meteotsunamis in terms of seasonality, causes, and occurrence frequency through the analysis of long-term water level records in the Laurentian Great Lakes. The majority of the observed meteotsunamis happen from late-spring to mid-summer and are associated primarily with convective storms. Meteotsunami events of potentially dangerous magnitude (height > 0.3u2009m) occur an average of 106 times per year throughout the region. These results reveal that meteotsunamis are much more frequent than follow from historic anecdotal reports. Future climate scenarios over the United States show a likely increase in the number of days favorable to severe convective storm formation over the Great Lakes, particularly in the spring season. This would suggest that the convectively associated meteotsunamis in these regions may experience an increase in occurrence frequency or a temporal shift in occurrence to earlier in the warm season. To date, meteotsunamis in the area of the Great Lakes have been an overlooked hazard.