Eric J. Levin

Bid-ask Spreads, Trading Volume and Volatility: Intra-day Evidence from the London Stock Exchange

This paper examines intra-day variations in the bid-ask spread, volatility and volume for stocks traded on the London Stock Exchange. The data set used consists of quote and transactions data for a large sample of 835 stocks traded during the first quarter of 1991. The focus of the study is twofold; first, is to document a number of stylized facts regarding the intra-day behaviour of spread, trading volume, volatility etc. Second, the paper tests some predictions of two theoretical models of intra-day behaviour: the Admati and Pfleiderer and the Brock and Kleidon models. In addition, the paper also studies qualitatively the intra-day behaviour of several variables of interest including volume per transaction, transactions per fifteen-minute interval and spreads/trading volume for stocks of differing liquidity. The results suggest that the bid-ask spread is wide at the open, constant through the day and rises slightly at the close. Trading volume, in contrast is not highest at the open and the close. Volatility, based on the mid-point of the inside spread, shows a U-shaped pattern. Volume per transaction, in contrast, is fairly constant throughout the day. Further, the intra-day trading volume pattern differs for liquid and illiquid stocks. The results provide mixed support for current theoretical models of intra-day behaviour of spread, volume and volatility on the London Stock Exchange Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1997.

Speculation in the Housing Market

This paper presents and tests a model of house price speculation. The mechanisms by which price speculation may occur in the housing market are described and formalised. A model of house prices is constructed that allows for speculation. Aspects of this model are tested using time-series data for the UK and the Greater London area (1969-95). Overall, the analysis presents some evidence of the process of speculation as a possible determinant of house prices in the London and UK-wide housing markets.

The impact of speculation on house prices in the United Kingdom

Abstract When house prices are expected to rise, the representative house mover has an incentive to secure his purchase price (i.e. exchange contracts) on the ‘new’ house before exchanging contracts on the sale price on his ‘old’ house. If all house-movers adopt this stance, the imbalance between buyers and sellers causes a self-fulfilling speculative price bubble. Transactions costs do not represent a barrier to such speculation in the house market, as such costs can be considered as being sunk costs for first-time buyers and owner-occupiers intending to move for non-speculative reasons. This idea is formalised and empirical evidence is presented which suggests that speculation is a significant determinant of house prices in the United Kingdom.

Demographic change and the housing market: evidence from a comparison of Scotland and England

This paper examines the impact of demographic change on the housing market. More specifically, a difference-in-differences methodology is used to explore the effect of population decline and population ageing on house prices in Scotland and England/Wales. The analysis suggests that population decline and population ageing put downward pressure on prices. Therefore, the long-run trend of rising real house prices can not be assumed to continue into the future, particularly in Scotland.

A Statistical Explanation for Extreme Bids in the House Market

This paper proposes a simple statistical explanation for the phenomenon of extreme bids. During a boom, the housing market regime switches from a single bidder to a multiple bidder environment. The sale price in a multiple bidder auction is the maximum bid and the distribution of maximum bids contains a much higher proportion of extreme bids compared with the distribution of single bidder valuations. While this theory does not preclude behavioural explanations of extreme bids, it does demonstrate that a world free from strategic and idiosyncratic behaviour would not be a world free from extreme bids during boom periods. Therefore, when gauging the impact of strategic or idiosyncratic behaviour (either hypothetically or empirically) one has to measure the effect against a baseline regime where extreme bids are inevitable, not against a world that is free from extreme bids.

What determines the price elasticity of house supply? Real interest rate effects and cyclical asymmetries

This paper offers a theoretical discussion of the price elasticity of supply. While there have been a number of attempts to estimate the responsiveness of UK supply, relatively little has been written on what determines it. A key omission is the effect of long-term real interest rates. Steep falls in both the annual rent to house price ratio and long real interest rates during a period of relatively static real rents in the UK suggest that the stream of future imputed rents became discounted at successively lower interest rates between 1996 and 2007. New supply responded sluggishly to price rises during this period, but then collapsed rapidly as the market turned in 2008. This paper argues that the decline in long-term real interest rates contributed to rising house prices and the inelastic supply response during the long upswing, and that cyclical asymmetries inherent in the supply response have been exacerbated by changes in the financial system and increased government regulation of the planning process.

Explaining the intra-day variation in the bid–ask spread in competitive dealership markets – A research note 1

Abstract There are many possible explanations for variation in the inside bid–ask spread during the trading day, including informed trading, price inelastic market demand, price discovery, statistical artefact and market concentration . Each of these explanations is examined for consistency with respect to both the inside and average bid–ask spread, observed both inside and outside the mandatory quote period in the London Stock Exchange.

What causes intra-week regularities in stock returns? Some evidence from the UK

The calendar anomaly associated with negative stock returns over the weekend is investigated. It is argued that such effects may be caused by a number of institutional features. Using Datastreams daily stock returns index for the UK over the period 1980-1993, it is shown that after allowing for three institutional factors there is no residual weekend anomaly to be explained. These factors are: (i) financing discontinuities associated with the account settlement period; (ii) the relative scarcity of funds while finance is held in banks suspense and transmission accounts on Settlement Day; and (iii) firms reluctance to hold money during non-trading periods.

Estimating the Price Elasticity of Demand in the London Stock Market

The hypothesis that demand curves for individual stocks slope downwards is typically investigated by empirical analysis of stock price movements following events that cause shifts in demand or supply. However, it is difficult to attribute observed price movements between downward sloping demand curves and information conveyed by the event. In this paper an econometric approach, based on market-maker response to unexpected changes in inventory, is used to separate out the slope of the demand curve from information effects and estimate the slopes of the demand curves for twenty stocks included in the Financial Times-Stock Exchange 100 Share Index (FTSE100). The analysis suggests that downward sloping demand curves would decrease the price by about 7.5% for a 1% increase in the number of outstanding shares.

Why does the bid-ask spread vary over the day?

This paper shows that the findings of Chan, Christie and Schultz (Journal of Business, 68, 1995) of no intraday variation in the average bid-ask spread is not general to all competitive markets, and in particular does not apply to the London Stock Exchange during the mandatory quote period. This is important because it revives the possibility of explanations of intraday variation in the bid-ask spread which involve individual market-makers widening their individual spreads for example in response to informed trading, inelastic demand or the need to discover prices at the start of the day. However there is no evidence of individual market makers widening their bid-ask quote spreads during the warm up and cool down periods at the start and the end of the trading day outwith the mandatory quote period. The only single explanation which might explain the whole day variation observed in the inside and the average bid-ask spreads both inside and outside of the mandatory quote is inventory control.