Eric M. Heien

Generic Earthquake Simulator

Many of the papers in this topical issue concern earthquake simulators and their results. The goals and history of the project leading to this work are described in the preface to this topical issue. Earthquake simulators are computer programs that use physics of stress transfer and frictional resistance to describe earthquake sequences. Some are capable of generating long earthquake histories on many faults. They necessarily adopt a variety of simplifications to make computation feasible. The amount of detail computed within individual earthquakes depends on the simulator. None of those capable of generating long histories includes elastodynamics, but some make approximations of it. Nevertheless, seismic waves are not computed in any of the many‐fault simulators focused on here. The faults are typically approximated by many rectangular elements, although the future use of triangles would allow more accurate representation of curved fault surfaces. This paper briefly describes the features that are common to all of the earthquake simulators discussed in this topical issue of SRL . Following it are four papers (Pollitz, 2012; Richards‐Dinger and Dieterich, 2012; Sachs et al. , 2012; Ward, 2012) authored by each of the groups, which present features of their simulator that go beyond this generic description. Results from using these simulators are not presented in those papers but are contained within a subsequent paper (Tullis et al. , 2012) that compares the results of using these five simulators on an all‐California fault model, allcal2. A detailed description of this fault model can be found at http://scec.usc.edu/research/eqsims/, and the formats used for input and output by our group are described by Barall (2012). ### Fault Geometry and Slip Rates UCERF …

A Comparison among Observations and Earthquake Simulator Results for the allcal2 California Fault Model

Online Material: Supplemental figures of space‐time and frequency‐magnitude relations, scaling plots, mean and covariance plots of interevent times, probability distribution functions of recurrence intervals, and earthquake density plots. In order to understand earthquake hazards we would ideally have a statistical description of earthquakes for tens of thousands of years. Unfortunately the ∼100‐year instrumental, several 100‐year historical, and few 1000‐year paleoseismological records are woefully inadequate to provide a statistically significant record. Physics‐based earthquake simulators can generate arbitrarily long histories of earthquakes; thus they can provide a statistically meaningful history of simulated earthquakes. The question is, how realistic are these simulated histories? This purpose of this paper is to begin to answer that question. We compare the results between different simulators and with information that is known from the limited instrumental, historic, and paleoseismological data. As expected, the results from all the simulators show that the observational record is too short to properly represent the system behavior; therefore, although tests of the simulators against the limited observations are necessary, they are not a sufficient test of the simulators’ realism. The simulators appear to pass this necessary test. In addition, the physics‐based simulators show similar behavior even though there are large differences in the methodology. This suggests that they represent realistic behavior. Different assumptions concerning the constitutive properties of the faults do result in enhanced capabilities of some simulators. However, it appears that the similar behavior of the different simulators may result from the fault‐system geometry, slip rates, and assumed strength drops, along with the shared physics of stress transfer. This paper describes the results of running four earthquake simulators that are described elsewhere in …

Performance benchmarks for a next generation numerical dynamo model

Numerical simulations of the geodynamo have successfully represented many observable characteristics of the geomagnetic field, yielding insight into the fundamental processes that generate magnetic fields in the Earths core. Because of limited spatial resolution, however, the diffusivities in numerical dynamo models are much larger than those in the Earths core, and consequently, questions remain about how realistic these models are. The typical strategy used to address this issue has been to continue to increase the resolution of these quasi-laminar models with increasing computational resources, thus pushing them toward more realistic parameter regimes. We assess which methods are most promising for the next generation of supercomputers, which will offer access to O(106) processor cores for large problems. Here we report performance and accuracy benchmarks from 15 dynamo codes that employ a range of numerical and parallelization methods. Computational performance is assessed on the basis of weak and strong scaling behavior up to 16,384 processor cores. Extrapolations of our weak-scaling results indicate that dynamo codes that employ two-dimensional or three-dimensional domain decompositions can perform efficiently on up to ∼106 processor cores, paving the way for more realistic simulations in the next model generation.

Simulating Gravity Changes in Topologically Realistic Driven Earthquake Fault Systems: First Results

Currently, GPS and InSAR measurements are used to monitor deformation produced by slip on earthquake faults. It has been suggested that another method to accomplish many of the same objectives would be through satellite-based gravity measurements. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission has shown that it is possible to make detailed gravity measurements from space for climate dynamics and other purposes. To build the groundwork for a more advanced satellite-based gravity survey, we must estimate the level of accuracy needed for precise estimation of fault slip in earthquakes. We turn to numerical simulations of earthquake fault systems and use these to estimate gravity changes. The current generation of Virtual California (VC) simulates faults of any orientation, dip, and rake. In this work, we discuss these computations and the implications they have for accuracies needed for a dedicated gravity monitoring mission. Preliminary results are in agreement with previous results calculated from an older and simpler version of VC. Computed gravity changes are in the range of tens of μGal over distances up to a few hundred kilometers, near the detection threshold for GRACE.

Virtual Quake: Statistics, Co-seismic Deformations and Gravity Changes for Driven Earthquake Fault Systems

With the ever increasing number of geodetic monitoring satellites, it is vital to have a variety of geophysical simulations produce synthetic datasets. Furthermore, just as hurricane forecasts are derived from the consensus among multiple atmospheric models, earthquake forecasts cannot be derived from a single comprehensive model. Here we present the functionality of Virtual Quake (formerly known as Virtual California), a numerical simulator that can generate sample co-seismic deformations, gravity changes, and InSAR interferograms in addition to producing probabilities for earthquake scenarios.Virtual Quake is now hosted by the Computational Infrastructure for Geodynamics. It is available for download and comes with a user manual. The manual includes a description of the simulator physics, instructions for generating fault models from scratch, and a guide to deploying the simulator in a parallel computing environment. http://geodynamics.org/cig/software/vq/.

Parametrizing Physics-Based Earthquake Simulations

Utilizing earthquake source parameter scaling relations, we formulate an extensible slip weakening friction law for quasi-static earthquake simulations. This algorithm is based on the method used to generate fault strengths for a recent earthquake simulator comparison study of the California fault system. Here we focus on the application of this algorithm in the Virtual Quake earthquake simulator. As a case study we probe the effects of the friction law’s parameters on simulated earthquake rates for the UCERF3 California fault model, and present the resulting conditional probabilities for California earthquake scenarios. The new friction model significantly extends the moment magnitude range over which simulated earthquake rates match observed rates in California, as well as substantially improving the agreement between simulated and observed scaling relations for mean slip and total rupture area.

Integrating remotely sensed and ground observations for modeling, analysis, and decision support

Earthquake science and emergency response require integration of many data types and models that cover a broad range of scales in time and space. Timely and efficient earthquake analysis and response require automated processes and a system in which the interfaces between models and applications are established and well defined. Geodetic imaging data provide observations of crustal deformation from which strain accumulation and release associated with earthquakes can be inferred. Data products are growing and tend to be either relatively large in size, on the order of 1 GB per image with hundreds or thousands of images, or high data rate, such as from 1 second GPS solutions. The products can be computationally intensive to manipulate, analyze, or model, and are unwieldy to transfer across wide area networks. Required computing resources can be large, even for a few users, and can spike when new data are made available or when an earthquake occurs. A cloud computing environment is the natural extension for some components of QuakeSim as an increasing number of data products and model applications become available to users. Storing the data near the model applications improves performance for the user.

Forecasting Earthquakes with the Virtual Quake Simulator: Regional and Fault-Partitioned Catalogs

We introduce a framework for forecasting earthquakes using Virtual Quake (VQ), the generalized successor to the perhaps better known Virtual California earthquake simulator. We briefly introduce the VQ simulator, including its availability to research organizations and statistics relevant to earthquake forecasting applications. We discuss contemporary, regional type, forecasts and also show that forecasts can be significantly improved by partitioning catalogs along fault sections.

Accelerating earthquake simulations on general-purpose graphics processors

Parallelization strategies are presented for Virtual Quake, a numerical simulation code for earthquakes based on topologically realistic systems of interacting earthquake faults. One of the demands placed upon the simulation is the accurate reproduction of the observed earthquake statistics over three to four decades. This requires the use of a high‐resolution fault model in computations, which demands computational power that is well beyond the scope of off‐the‐shelf multi‐core CPU computers. However, the recent advances in general‐purpose graphic processing units have the potential to address this problem at moderate cost increments. A functional decomposition of Virtual Quake is performed, and opportunities for parallelization are discussed in this work. Computationally intensive modules are identified, and these are implemented on graphics processing units, significantly speeding up earthquake simulations. In the current best case scenario, a computer with six graphics processing units can simulate 500 years of fault activity in California at 1.5 km × 1.5 km element resolution in less than 1 hour, whereas a single CPU requires more than 2 days to perform the same simulation. Copyright