Eric Maisonnave

The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation

A new version of the general circulation model CNRM-CM has been developed jointly by CNRM-GAME (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques—Groupe d’études de l’Atmosphère Météorologique) and Cerfacs (Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée) in order to contribute to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The purpose of the study is to describe its main features and to provide a preliminary assessment of its mean climatology. CNRM-CM5.1 includes the atmospheric model ARPEGE-Climat (v5.2), the ocean model NEMO (v3.2), the land surface scheme ISBA and the sea ice model GELATO (v5) coupled through the OASIS (v3) system. The main improvements since CMIP3 are the following. Horizontal resolution has been increased both in the atmosphere (from 2.8° to 1.4°) and in the ocean (from 2° to 1°). The dynamical core of the atmospheric component has been revised. A new radiation scheme has been introduced and the treatments of tropospheric and stratospheric aerosols have been improved. Particular care has been devoted to ensure mass/water conservation in the atmospheric component. The land surface scheme ISBA has been externalised from the atmospheric model through the SURFEX platform and includes new developments such as a parameterization of sub-grid hydrology, a new freezing scheme and a new bulk parameterisation for ocean surface fluxes. The ocean model is based on the state-of-the-art version of NEMO, which has greatly progressed since the OPA8.0 version used in the CMIP3 version of CNRM-CM. Finally, the coupling between the different components through OASIS has also received a particular attention to avoid energy loss and spurious drifts. These developments generally lead to a more realistic representation of the mean recent climate and to a reduction of drifts in a preindustrial integration. The large-scale dynamics is generally improved both in the atmosphere and in the ocean, and the bias in mean surface temperature is clearly reduced. However, some flaws remain such as significant precipitation and radiative biases in many regions, or a pronounced drift in three dimensional salinity.

Simulation of Late-Twenty-First-Century Changes in Wintertime Atmospheric Circulation over Europe Due to Anthropogenic Causes

Abstract Evidence is presented, based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios performed with a global general circulation model of the atmosphere with high horizontal resolution over Europe, to suggest that the end-of-century anthropogenic climate change over the North Atlantic–European region strongly projects onto the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation during wintertime. It is reflected in a doubling of the residence frequency of the climate system in the associated circulation regime, in agreement with the nonlinear climate perspective. The strong increase in the amplitude of the response, compared to coarse-resolution coupled model studies, suggests that improved model representation of regional climate is needed to achieve more reliable projections of anthropogenic climate change on European climate.

Influence of small-scale North Atlantic sea surface temperature patterns on the marine boundary layer and free troposphere: a study using the atmospheric ARPEGE model

A high-resolution global atmospheric model is used to investigate the influence of the representation of small-scale North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) patterns on the atmosphere during boreal winter. Two ensembles of forced simulations are performed and compared. In the first ensemble (HRES), the full spatial resolution of the SST is maintained while small-scale features are smoothed out in the Gulf Stream region for the second ensemble (SMTH). The model shows a reasonable climatology in term of large-scale circulation and air–sea interaction coefficient when compared to reanalyses and satellite observations, respectively. The impact of small-scale SST patterns as depicted by differences between HRES and SMTH shows a strong meso-scale local mean response in terms of surface heat fluxes, convective precipitation, and to a lesser extent cloudiness. The main mechanism behind these statistical differences is that of a simple hydrostatic pressure adjustment related to increased SST and marine atmospheric boundary layer temperature gradient along the North Atlantic SST front. The model response to small-scale SST patterns also includes remote large-scale effects: upper tropospheric winds show a decrease downstream of the eddy-driven jet maxima over the central North Atlantic, while the subtropical jet exhibits a significant northward shift in particular over the eastern Mediterranean region. Significant changes are simulated in regard to the North Atlantic storm track, such as a southward shift of the storm density off the coast of North America towards the maximum SST gradient. A storm density decrease is also depicted over Greenland and the Nordic seas while a significant increase is seen over the northern part of the Mediterranean basin. Changes in Rossby wave breaking frequencies and weather regimes spatial patterns are shown to be associated to the jets and storm track changes.

Is land surface processes representation a possible weak link in current Regional Climate Models

The representation of land surface processes and fluxes in climate models critically affects the simulation of near-surface climate over land. Here we present an evaluation ofCOSMO-CLM2, a model which couples theCOSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model to the Community Land Model (CLM4.0). CLM4.0 provides a more detailed representation of land processes compared to the native land surface scheme in COSMO-CLM.Weperform historical reanalysis-driven simulations over Europe with COSMO-CLM2 following the EURO-CORDEX intercomparison protocol.Wethen evaluate simulations performed withCOSMO-CLM2, the standard COSMO-CLM and other EUROCORDEXRCMs against various observational datasets of temperature, precipitation and surface fluxes. Overall, the results indicate thatCOSMO-CLM2 outperforms both the standard COSMOCLMand the other EURO-CORDEX models in simulating sensible, latent and surface radiative fluxes as well as 2-meter temperature across different seasons and regions. The performance improvement is particularly strong for turbulent fluxes and for daily maximum temperatures and more modest for daily minimum temperature, suggesting that land surface processes affect daytime even more than nighttime conditions.COSMO-CLM2 also alleviates a long-standing issue of overestimation of interannual summer temperature variability present in most EURO-CORDEX RCMs. Finally, we show that several factors contribute to these improvements, including the representation of evapotranspiration, radiative fluxes and ground heat flux. Overall, these results demonstrate that land processes represent a key area of development to tackle current deficiencies in RCMs.

Decadal prediction skill using a high-resolution climate model

The ability of a high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (with a horizontal resolution of a quarter of a degree in the ocean and of about 0.5° in the atmosphere) to predict the annual means of temperature, precipitation, sea-ice volume and extent is assessed based on initialized hindcasts over the 1993–2009 period. Significant skill in predicting sea surface temperatures is obtained, especially over the North Atlantic, the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean. The Sea Ice Extent and volume are also reasonably predicted in winter (March) and summer (September). The model skill is mainly due to the external forcing associated with well-mixed greenhouse gases. A decrease in the global warming rate associated with a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is simulated by the model over a suite of 10-year periods when initialized from starting dates between 1999 and 2003. The model ability to predict regional change is investigated by focusing on the mid-90’s Atlantic Ocean subpolar gyre warming. The model simulates the North Atlantic warming associated with a meridional heat transport increase, a strengthening of the North Atlantic current and a deepening of the mixed layer over the Labrador Sea. The atmosphere plays a role in the warming through a modulation of the North Atlantic Oscillation: a negative sea level pressure anomaly, located south of the subpolar gyre is associated with a wind speed decrease over the subpolar gyre. This leads to a reduced oceanic heat-loss and favors a northward displacement of anomalously warm and salty subtropical water that both concur to the subpolar gyre warming. We finally conclude that the subpolar gyre warming is mainly triggered by ocean dynamics with a possible contribution of atmospheric circulation favoring its persistence.