Eric Molin

Use and Effects of Advanced Traveller Information Services (ATIS): A Review of the Literature

Abstract Rapid technological developments in the field of personal communication services probe visions of a next generation in Advanced Traveller Information Services (ATIS). These technological developments provoke a renewed interest in the use and effect of such next‐generation ATIS among academia as well as practitioners. To understand better the potential use and effects of such next‐generation ATIS, a thorough review is warranted of contemporary conceptual ideas and empirical findings on the use of travel information (services) and their effects on travellers’ choices. This paper presents such a review and integrates behavioural determinants such as the role of decision strategies with manifest determinants such as trip contexts and socio‐economic variables into a coherent framework of information acquisition and its effect on travellers’ perceptions.

Different Cost Performance: Different Determinants? The Case of Cost Overruns in Dutch Transport Infrastructure Projects

This paper examines three independent explanatory variables and their relation with cost overrun in order to decide whether this is different for Dutch infrastructure projects compared to worldwide findings. The three independent variables are project type (road, rail, and fixed link projects), project size (measured in terms of estimated costs) and the length of the project implementation phase. For Dutch projects, average cost overrun is 10.6% for rail, 18.6% for roads and 21.7% for fixed links. For project size, small Dutch projects have the largest average percentage cost overruns but in terms of total overrun, large projects have a larger share. The length of the implementation phase and especially the length of the pre-construction phase are important determinants of cost overruns in the Netherlands. With each additional year of pre-construction, percentage cost overrun increases by five percentage points. In contrast, the length of the construction phase has hardly any influence on cost overruns. This is an important contribution to current knowledge about cost overruns, because the period in which projects are most prone to cost overruns is narrowed down considerably, at least in the Netherlands. This means that to determine the causes and cures of overruns one should focus on the period.

Testing a theory of aircraft noise annoyance: A structural equation analysis

Previous research has stressed the relevance of nonacoustical factors in the perception of aircraft noise. However, it is largely empirically driven and lacks a sound theoretical basis. In this paper, a theoretical model which explains noise annoyance based on the psychological stress theory is empirically tested. The model is estimated by applying structural equation modeling based on data from residents living in the vicinity of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol in The Netherlands. The model provides a good model fit and indicates that concern about the negative health effects of noise and pollution, perceived disturbance, and perceived control and coping capacity are the most important variables that explain noise annoyance. Furthermore, the model provides evidence for the existence of two reciprocal relationships between (1) perceived disturbance and noise annoyance and (2) perceived control and coping capacity and noise annoyance. Lastly, the model yielded two unexpected results. Firstly, the variables noise sensitivity and fear related to the noise source were unable to explain additional variance in the endogenous variables of the model and were therefore excluded from the model. And secondly, the size of the total effect of noise exposure on noise annoyance was relatively small. The paper concludes with some recommended directions for further research.

Responses to Transit Information among Car-drivers: Regret-based Models and Simulations

Abstract This article investigates the use and effects of transit information among car drivers that consider transit as a mode-option in their choice set. It does so by first presenting a theoretical model of travel information use and effect, based on the integration of notions of Bayesian updating into a regret-based framework of travel choice. Subsequently, numerical simulation of the model provides insights into the mechanisms behind information use and effect in a mode-choice context where a traveler has both car– as well as transit-options in their choice set, and prefers traveling by car over riding by transit. These simulations show that the perceived value of acquiring transit information is limited by a number of factors. Furthermore they demonstrate that, even in the case where transit information is acquired, and the message is favorable to transit, its impact on mode choices will also be limited. Given these results for non-habitual car-drivers, it is suggested that for car-drivers in general (thus including the large share of habitual drivers), conservative estimates regarding the impact of transit information provision on modal shift would be realistic.

The Choice of Park and Ride Facilities: An Analysis Using a Context-Dependent Hierarchical Choice Experiment

Park and ride (P&R) facilities have been proposed in several countries to alleviate the accessibility problems in cities. Despite growing accessibility problems, these facilities do not seem to attract the expected number of car drivers and are underused. In an attempt to measure consumer evaluations of the attributes of P&R facilities, a stated choice experiment, based on the method of hierarchical information integration, was conducted in the city of Nijmegen, The Netherlands. This paper documents the major results of this study, which differs from previous research in that a large range of attributes is examined, including accessibility of the facility, the quality of the facility, and the features of connecting transport. In addition, context variables affect the decisionmaking process of car drivers such as weather, having heavy luggage and travel purpose were incorporated in the study design. The results indicate that social safety, quality of the connecting public transport and relative travel times by transport modes are key attributes to the success of P&R facilities. Contextual variables seem to have only a minor impact.

Characteristics of Cost Overruns for Dutch Transport Infrastructure Projects and the Importance of the Decision to Build and Project Phases

Using a methodology similar to that used the in the worldwide research, the cost performance of Dutch large-scale transport infrastructure projects is determined. In the Netherlands, cost overruns are as common as cost underruns but because cost overruns are larger than cost underruns projects on average have a cost overrun of 16.5%. The focus on one country further enabled to consider cost overruns during different project development phases. It turned out that in the Netherlands the majority of the cost overrun occurs in the pre-construction phase (the period between the formal decision to build and the start of construction). The frequency as well as the magnitude of pre-construction cost overrun is significantly higher than in the construction phase. The used methodology of calculating cost overruns does however not take lock-in into account. This phenomenon shows that the real decision to build was taken much earlier in the decision-making process. Since estimated costs are usually lower during these earlier stages, the cost overruns based on this real decision to build are likely to be much higher. Cost overruns presented in studies are therefore often underestimated and the problem of cost overruns is much larger than we think.

Causal Analysis of Hydrogen Acceptance

This paper presents and discusses a structural equation model on hydrogen acceptance. This model unravels the direct and indirect effects among personal characteristics, knowledge about hydrogen, perceptions, attitudes, and willingness to use hydrogen applications. In addition, indicators of differently colored information that can be provided by mass media have been included as explanatory variables. The estimated model indicates that colored information directly influences perceptions of hydrogen and indirectly influences attitudes about hydrogen and willingness to use it. In particular, negatively colored information decreases hydrogen acceptance, which cannot be counterbalanced by providing positively colored information. Furthermore, the model suggests that more factual knowledge about hydrogen increases its acceptance. The paper further discusses the likely development of hydrogen acceptance in the future and how practitioners can influence this.

Lock-In and Its Influence on the Project Performance of Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Investigating the Way in Which Lock-In Can Emerge and Affect Cost Overruns

Lock-in, the escalating commitment of decision makers to an ineffective course of action, has the potential to explain the large cost overruns in large-scale transportation infrastructure projects. Lock-in can occur both at the decision-making level (before the decision to build) and at the project level (after the decision to build) and can influence the extent of overruns in two ways. The first involves the ‘methodology’ of calculating cost overruns according to the ‘formal decision to build’. Due to lock-in, however, the ‘real decision to build’ is made much earlier in the decision-making process and the costs estimated at that stage are often much lower than those that are estimated at a later stage in the decision-making process, thus increasing cost overruns. The second way that lock-in can affect cost overruns is through ‘practice’. Although decisions about the project (design and implementation) need to be made, lock-in can lead to inefficient decisions that involve higher costs. Sunk costs (in terms of both time and money), the need for justification, escalating commitment, and inflexibility and the closure of alternatives are indicators of lock-in. Two case studies, of the Betuweroute and the High Speed Link-South projects in the Netherlands, demonstrate the presence of lock-in and its influence on the extent of cost overruns at both the decision-making and project levels. This suggests that recognition of lock-in as an explanation for cost overruns contributes significantly to the understanding of the inadequate planning process of projects and allows development of more appropriate means.

Cognition and Relative Importance Underlying Consumer Valuation of Park-and-Ride Facilities

Results are reported of a study designed to identify the cognitive constructs underlying the valuation of park-and-ride (P&R) facilities and to measure the relative importance attached to the attributes of such facilities. Results show that the reliability of public transport is quite important. Furthermore, time and, to a lesser degree, costs considerably influence a traveler’s decision to use P&R or not. Parking aspects are less important, except for information about parking. Finally, respondents evaluated the attributes about staying at P&R facilities to be least important. These results do, however, seem to vary between user groups.

Consumer preferences for electric vehicles : a literature review

ABSTRACT Widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) may contribute to the alleviation of problems such as environmental pollution, global warming and oil dependency. However, the current market penetration of EV is relatively low in spite of many governments implementing strong promotion policies. This paper presents a comprehensive review of studies on consumer preferences for EV, aiming to better inform policy-makers and give direction to further research. First, we compare the economic and psychological approach towards this topic, followed by a conceptual framework of EV preferences which is then implemented to organise our review. We also briefly review the modelling techniques applied in the selected studies. Estimates of consumer preferences for financial, technical, infrastructure and policy attributes are then reviewed. A categorisation of influential factors for consumer preferences into groups such as socio-economic variables, psychological factors, mobility condition, social influence, etc. is then made and their effects are elaborated. Finally, we discuss a research agenda to improve EV consumer preference studies and give recommendations for further research. Abbreviations: AFV: alternative fuel vehicle; BEV: battery electric vehicle; CVs: conventional vehicles; EVs: electric vehicles; FCV: fuel cell vehicle; HCM: hybrid choice model; HEV: hybrid electric vehicle (non plug-in); HOV: high occupancy vehicle; MNL: MultiNomial logit; MXL: MiXed logit model; PHEV: plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; RP: revealed preference; SP: stated preference.