Eric P. Chael

SALSA3D: A Tomographic Model of Compressional Wave Slowness in the Earth’s Mantle for Improved Travel‐Time Prediction and Travel‐Time Prediction Uncertainty

Abstract The task of monitoring the Earth for nuclear explosions relies heavily on seismic data to detect, locate, and characterize suspected nuclear tests. Motivated by the need to locate suspected explosions as accurately and precisely as possible, we developed a tomographic model of the compressional wave slowness in the Earth’s mantle with primary focus on the accuracy and precision of travel‐time predictions for P and Pn ray paths through the model. Path‐dependent travel‐time prediction uncertainties are obtained by computing the full 3D model covariance matrix and then integrating slowness variance and covariance along ray paths from source to receiver. Path‐dependent travel‐time prediction uncertainties reflect the amount of seismic data that was used in tomography with very low values for paths represented by abundant data in the tomographic data set and very high values for paths through portions of the model that were poorly sampled by the tomography data set. The pattern of travel‐time prediction uncertainty is a direct result of the off‐diagonal terms of the model covariance matrix and underscores the importance of incorporating the full model covariance matrix in the determination of travel‐time prediction uncertainty. The computed pattern of uncertainty differs significantly from that of 1D distance‐dependent travel‐time uncertainties computed using traditional methods, which are only appropriate for use with travel times computed through 1D velocity models.

NetMOD Version 2.0 Mathematical Framework

NetMOD ( Net work M onitoring for O ptimal D etection) is a Java-based software package for conducting simulation of seismic, hydroacoustic and infrasonic networks. Network simulations have long been used to study network resilience to station outages and to determine where additional stations are needed to reduce monitoring thresholds. NetMOD makes use of geophysical models to determine the source characteristics, signal attenuation along the path between the source and station, and the performance and noise properties of the station. These geophysical models are combined to simulate the relative amplitudes of signal and noise that are observed at each of the stations. From these signal-to-noise ratios (SNR), the probabilities of signal detection at each station and event detection across the network of stations can be computed given a detection threshold. The purpose of this document is to clearly and comprehensively present the mathematical framework used by NetMOD, the software package developed by Sandia National Laboratories to assess the monitoring capability of ground-based sensor networks. Many of the NetMOD equations used for simulations are inherited from the NetSim network capability assessment package developed in the late 1980s by SAIC (Sereno et al., 1990).

Seismic data acquisition at the FACT site for the CASPAR project.

Since May 2010, we have been recording continuous seismic data at Sandias FACT site. The collected signals provide us with a realistic archive for testing algorithms under development for local monitoring of explosive testing. Numerous small explosive tests are routinely conducted around Kirtland AFB by different organizations. Our goal is to identify effective methods for distinguishing these events from normal daily activity on and near the base, such as vehicles, aircraft, and storms. In this report, we describe the recording system, and present some observations of the varying ambient noise conditions at FACT. We present examples of various common, non-explosive, sources. Next we show signals from several small explosions, and discuss their characteristic features.