Erik Holmberg

Mortality results from the Göteborg randomised population-based prostate-cancer screening trial

BACKGROUND Prostate cancer is one of the leading causes of death from malignant disease among men in the developed world. One strategy to decrease the risk of death from this disease is screening with prostate-specific antigen (PSA); however, the extent of benefit and harm with such screening is under continuous debate. METHODS In December, 1994, 20,000 men born between 1930 and 1944, randomly sampled from the population register, were randomised by computer in a 1:1 ratio to either a screening group invited for PSA testing every 2 years (n=10,000) or to a control group not invited (n=10,000). Men in the screening group were invited up to the upper age limit (median 69, range 67-71 years) and only men with raised PSA concentrations were offered additional tests such as digital rectal examination and prostate biopsies. The primary endpoint was prostate-cancer specific mortality, analysed according to the intention-to-screen principle. The study is ongoing, with men who have not reached the upper age limit invited for PSA testing. This is the first planned report on cumulative prostate-cancer incidence and mortality calculated up to Dec 31, 2008. This study is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial ISRCTN54449243. FINDINGS In each group, 48 men were excluded from the analysis because of death or emigration before the randomisation date, or prevalent prostate cancer. In men randomised to screening, 7578 (76%) of 9952 attended at least once. During a median follow-up of 14 years, 1138 men in the screening group and 718 in the control group were diagnosed with prostate cancer, resulting in a cumulative prostate-cancer incidence of 12.7% in the screening group and 8.2% in the control group (hazard ratio 1.64; 95% CI 1.50-1.80; p<0.0001). The absolute cumulative risk reduction of death from prostate cancer at 14 years was 0.40% (95% CI 0.17-0.64), from 0.90% in the control group to 0.50% in the screening group. The rate ratio for death from prostate cancer was 0.56 (95% CI 0.39-0.82; p=0.002) in the screening compared with the control group. The rate ratio of death from prostate cancer for attendees compared with the control group was 0.44 (95% CI 0.28-0.68; p=0.0002). Overall, 293 (95% CI 177-799) men needed to be invited for screening and 12 to be diagnosed to prevent one prostate cancer death. INTERPRETATION This study shows that prostate cancer mortality was reduced almost by half over 14 years. However, the risk of over-diagnosis is substantial and the number needed to treat is at least as high as in breast-cancer screening programmes. The benefit of prostate-cancer screening compares favourably to other cancer screening programs. FUNDING The Swedish Cancer Society, the Swedish Research Council, and the National Cancer Institute.

Radiation Effects on Breast Cancer Risk: A Pooled Analysis of Eight Cohorts

Abstract Preston, D. L., Mattsson, A., Holmberg, E., Shore, R., Hildreth, N. G. and Boice, J. D., Jr. Radiation Effects on Breast Cancer Risk: A Pooled Analysis of Eight Cohorts. Radiat. Res. 158, 220–235 (2002). Breast cancer incidence rates after radiation exposure in eight large cohorts are described and compared. The nature of the exposures varies appreciably, ranging from a single or a small number of high-dose-rate exposures (Japanese atomic bomb survivors, U.S. acute post-partum mastitis patients, Swedish benign breast disease patients, and U.S. infants with thymic enlargement) to highly fractionated high-dose-rate exposures (two U.S. tuberculosis cohorts) and protracted low-dose-rate exposure (two Swedish skin hemangioma cohorts). There were 1,502 breast cancers among 77,527 women (about 35,000 of whom were exposed) with 1.8 million woman-years of follow-up. The excess risk depends linearly on dose with a downturn at high doses. No simple unified summary model adequately describes the excess risks in all groups. Excess risks for the thymus, tuberculosis, and atomic bomb survivor cohorts have similar temporal patterns, depending on attained age for relative risk models and on both attained age and age at exposure for excess rate models. Excess rates were similar in these cohorts, whereas, related in part to the low breast cancer background rates for Japanese women, the excess relative risk per unit dose in the bomb survivors was four times that in the tuberculosis or thymus cohorts. Excess rates were higher for the mastitis and benign breast disease cohorts. The hemangioma cohorts showed lower excess risks suggesting ameliorating dose-rate effects for protracted low-dose-rate exposures. For comparable ages at exposure (∼0.5 years), the excess risk in the hemangioma cohorts was about one-seventh that in the thymus cohort, whose members received acute high-dose-rate exposures. The results support the linearity of the radiation dose response for breast cancer, highlight the importance of age and age at exposure on the risks, and suggest a similarity in risks for acute and fractionated high-dose-rate exposures with much smaller effects from low-dose-rate protracted exposures. There is also a suggestion that women with some benign breast conditions may be at elevated risk of radiation-associated breast cancer.

PROGNOSTIC FACTORS FOR ACUTE AND LATE SKIN REACTIONS IN RADIOTHERAPHY PATIENTS

PURPOSE Patients treated with identical radiotherapy schedules show a substantial variation in the degree of acute and late normal tissue reactions. To identify any possible contributing factors to this phenomenon, we have analyzed the treatments of 402 breast cancer patients. METHODS AND MATERIALS The patients received adjuvant postoperative radiotherapy between 1972 and 1985 and have been followed up since then. Multivariate analyses were performed with peak reflectance erythema and peak acute reaction score as endpoints for the acute reactions, and with progression rate of telangiectasia as well as telangiectasia score as endpoints for the late reactions. Twenty patient- and treatment-related factors were tested such as age, menopausal status, hemoglobin level, serum calcium, smoking habits, hypothyroidism, diabetes, hypertension, blood pressure, cardiovascular and autoimmune disease, the influence of hormone therapy and chemotherapy, pretreatment reflectance value, acute skin reactions, radiation quality, individual dose, bilateral fields, and the total effect (TE) for the dose schedule applied. RESULTS The TE was a strong prognostic factor for all endpoints. In addition to TE, blood pressure was prognostic for the peak erythema measured by reflectance spectrophotometry, and the pretreatment reflectance value was prognostic for the acute score. The only independent prognostic factors found for the progression of skin telangiectasia and telangiectasia score except for TE were the individual dose and the acute skin reactions. CONCLUSIONS These factors explained at most about 30% of the variance describing the total patient-to-patient variability for each endpoint. The remaining variability is still unexplained but may be related to individual differences in cellular radiosensitivity, partly determined by genetic variations and partly by unknown epigenetic factors.

Outcomes in Localized Prostate Cancer: National Prostate Cancer Register of Sweden Follow-up Study

Background Treatment for localized prostate cancer remains controversial. To our knowledge, there are no outcome studies from contemporary population-based cohorts that include data on stage, Gleason score, and serum levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA). Methods In the National Prostate Cancer Register of Sweden Follow-up Study, a nationwide cohort, we identified 6849 patients aged 70 years or younger. Inclusion criteria were diagnosis with local clinical stage T1–2 prostate cancer from January 1, 1997, through December 31, 2002, a Gleason score of 7 or less, a serum PSA level of less than 20 ng/mL, and treatment with surveillance (including active surveillance and watchful waiting, n = 2021) or curative intent (including radical prostatectomy, n = 3399, and radiation therapy, n = 1429). Among the 6849 patients, 2686 had low-risk prostate cancer (ie, clinical stage T1, Gleason score 2-6, and serum PSA level of <10 ng/mL). The study cohort was linked to the Cause of Death Register, and cumulative incidence of death from prostate cancer and competing causes was calculated. Results For the combination of low- and intermediate-risk prostate cancers, calculated cumulative 10-year prostate cancer–specific mortality was 3.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.7% to 4.8%) in the surveillance group and 2.7% (95% CI = 2.1% to 3.45) in the curative intent group. For those with low-risk disease, the corresponding values were 2.4% (95% CI = 1.2% to 4.1%) among the 1085 patients in the surveillance group and 0.7% (95% CI = 0.3% to 1.4%) among the 1601 patients in the curative intent group. The 10-year risk of dying from competing causes was 19.2% (95% CI = 17.2% to 21.3%) in the surveillance group and 10.2% (95% CI = 9.0% to 11.4%) in the curative intent group. Conclusion A 10-year prostate cancer–specific mortality of 2.4% among patients with low-risk prostate cancer in the surveillance group indicates that surveillance may be a suitable treatment option for many patients with low-risk disease.

Renal function in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma — A demographic study of 1353 patients

This study describes the occurrence of renal failure among 1353 newly diagnosed cases of multiple myeloma. Renal function was evaluated by serum creatinine concentration in 1353 cases, 31% of whom had renal failure at the time of diagnosis. In 1206 cases an estimation of creatinine clearance was made. When renal failure was defined by using creatinine clearance estimation, 49% had renal failure at the time of diagnosis. Renal failure was present in 24% of patients with an M component of IgG‐, 31% of IgA‐ and 100% of IgD‐type. 52% of patients with light chain disease had renal failure. The frequency of renal failure was similar in lambda‐and kappa‐light chain disease. Patients with a high excretion of Bence Jones protein in the urine (> 10 g/24 h) had renal failure significantly more often than patients with lower excretion. Renal failure was related to advanced disease; 41% of patients with stage III (Durie‐Salmon) disease had renal failure. Renal failure was found in 45% of patients with hypercalcaemia. When estimated creatinine clearance was used as a predictor of renal function, the same trends were found as mentioned above. In addition, the proportion of patients with renal failure was found to increase with advancing age.

Initial versus deferred melphalan‐prednisone therapy for asymptomatic multiple myeloma stage I — A randomized study

Abstract:  From October 1983 until December 1988, 50 patients with asymptomatic multiple myeloma stage I were included in a prospective randomized multi‐centre study comparing melphalan‐prednisone (MP) therapy started at the time of diagnosis with deferred therapy where MP was started at the time of disease progression. Twenty‐five patients were randomized to each group. The median time from diagnosis to start of therapy in the group with deferred therapy was 12 months. The reasons for starting therapy were increasing M‐protein in 8 cases, symptomatic bone disease in 9 and anaemia in 5. In 2 cases, disease progression was complicated by vertebral fractures necessitating radiotherapy. Two patients in the group in which MP was started at the time of diagnosis developed acute leukaemia. No differences in response rate, response duration or survival were observed between the treatment groups. We conclude that in asymptomatic myeloma deferral of chemotherapy is feasible in well‐informed and well‐controlled patients but conveys no advantage in survival. In clinical practice the benefits of treatment deferral are to some extent outweighed by disease progression before start of treatment.

Soft tissue sarcoma after treatment for breast cancer--a Swedish population-based study.

The aim was to quantify the risk of post-treatment sarcoma in breast cancer patients. All 122,991 women with a breast cancer from 1958 to 1992 in the Swedish Cancer Register were followed up for soft tissue sarcomas and 116 were found, giving a standardised incidence ratio of 1.9 (95% CI 1.5-2.2). The absolute risk was 1.3 per 10(4) person-years. The sarcomas were located in the breast region or on the ipsilateral arm in 63% (67/106). There were 40 angiosarcomas and 76 sarcomas of other types. In a case-control study, angiosarcoma correlated significantly with lymphoedema of the arm, odds ratio (OR) 9.5 (95% CI 3.2-28.0), but no correlation with radiotherapy was observed. For other types of sarcoma there was a correlation with the integral dose. The dose-response relationship indicated that the risk increased linearly with the integral dose to 150-200 J and stabilised at higher energies. The OR was 2.4 (95% CI 1.4-4.2) for an energy of 50 J, approximately corresponding to the radiation of the breast after breast-conserving surgery. Thus, only oedema of the arm correlated with angiosarcoma, but for other types of sarcoma the integral dose of radiotherapy was a predictor of the risk.

Intracranial tumors after exposure to ionizing radiation during infancy: a pooled analysis of two Swedish cohorts of 28,008 infants with skin hemangioma.

The risk of intracranial tumors after exposure to ionizing radiation during infancy has been studied in a pooled analysis of two Swedish hemangioma cohorts (n = 28,008). The mean absorbed intracranial dose was low (7 cGy, range 0-11.5 Gy). The cohorts were followed up in the Swedish Cancer Register for incident intracranial tumors during the period 1958-1993. Eighty-eight tumors were found in 86 individuals compared to 60.72 expected [standardized incidence ratio (SIR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-1.75]. The SIR increased significantly in ascending dose categories (P = 0.02). Dose-response analyses were performed with Poisson regression methods. There was a significant effect of dose, and the dose-effect relationship was negatively modified by age at first treatment. This indicates a higher risk for those exposed earlier in life. A linear dose-response model modified by age at first treatment resulted in the best fit. The excess relative risk (ERR) was 2.7/Gy (95% CI 1.0-5.6). The ERR/Gy was 4.5 if the treatment was given before 5 months of age, 1.5 if it was given at 5-7 months and 0.4 if it was given later. The study thus strongly indicates that there exists a dose-response relationship between absorbed dose in the brain and the subsequent risk of developing an intracranial tumor and that the risk is higher among infants exposed at younger ages.

Outcome Following Active Surveillance of Men with Screen-detected Prostate Cancer. Results from the Göteborg Randomised Population-based Prostate Cancer Screening Trial

BACKGROUND Active surveillance (AS) has emerged as a treatment strategy for reducing overtreatment of screen-detected, low-risk prostate cancer (PCa). OBJECTIVE To assess outcomes following AS of men with screen-detected PCa. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Of the 968 men who were diagnosed with screen-detected PCa between 1995 and 2010 in the Göteborg randomised, population-based PCa screening trial, 439 were managed with AS and were included in this study. Median age at diagnosis was 65.4 yr of age, and median follow-up was 6.0 yr from diagnosis. INTERVENTION The study participants were followed at intervals of 3-12 mo and were recommended to switch to deferred active treatment in case of a progression in prostate-specific antigen, grade, or stage. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS The end points-overall survival (OS), treatment-free survival, failure-free (no relapse after radical treatment) survival, and cancer-specific survival-were calculated for various risk groups (very low, low, intermediate, and high) with Kaplan-Meier estimates. A Cox proportional hazards model as well as a competing risk analysis were used to assess whether risk group or age at diagnosis was associated with failure after AS. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS Forty-five per cent of all screen-detected PCa were managed with AS, and very low-risk and low-risk PCa constituted 60% of all screen-detected PCa. Thirty-seven per cent (162 of 439) switched from surveillance to deferred active treatment, and 39 men failed AS. The 10-yr OS, treatment-free survival, and failure-free survival were 81.1%, 45.4%, and 86.4%, respectively (Kaplan-Meier estimates). Men with low-, intermediate-, and high-risk tumours had a hazard ratio for failure of 2.1 (p=0.09), 3.6 (p=0.002), and 4.6 (p=0.15), respectively, compared to very low-risk tumours (Cox regression). Only one PCa death occurred, and one patient developed metastasis (both in the intermediate-risk group). The main limitation of this study is the relatively short follow-up. CONCLUSIONS A large proportion of men with screen-detected PCa can be managed with AS. AS appears safe for men with low-risk PCa.

Breast conservation surgery, with and without radiotherapy, in women with lymph node-negative breast cancer: a randomised clinical trial in a population with access to public mammography screening

The effect of postoperative radiotherapy after sector resection for stage I-II lymph node-negative breast cancer was evaluated in a patient population with access to public mammographical screening. 1187 women were randomised to no further treatment or postoperative radiotherapy following a standardised sector resection and axillary dissection. Radiation was administered to a dose of 48-54 Gy. Median age was 60 years, and median size of the detected tumours was 12 mm. Of the women 65% had their tumours detected by mammographical screening. The relative risk (RR) of ipsilateral breast recurrence was significantly higher in the non-irradiated patients compared with the irradiated patients, RR=3.33 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 2.13-5.19, P<0.001). The corresponding cumulative incidence at 5 years was 14% versus 4%, respectively. Overall survival (OS) was similar, RR=1.16 (95% CI 0.81-1.65, P=0.41), with 5 year probabilities of 93 and 94%, respectively. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) at 5 years was significantly lower in the non-irradiated women, 77% versus 88% (P<0.001). Although women above 49 years of age, whose tumours were detected with mammographical screening, had the lowest rate of ipsilateral breast recurrence in this study, the cumulative incidence of such event amounted to 10% at 5 years if radiotherapy was not given. Such a recurrence rate has been considered as unacceptably high, but is, however, in the same range as that reported after lumpectomy and postoperative radiotherapy in published series.