Erik Hurst

Consumption Versus Expenditure

Previous authors have documented a dramatic decline in food expenditures at the time of retirement. We show that this is matched by an equally dramatic rise in time spent shopping for and preparing meals. Using a novel data set that collects detailed food diaries for a large cross section of U.S. households, we show that neither the quality nor the quantity of food intake deteriorates with retirement status. We also show that unemployed households experience a decline in food expenditure and food consumption commensurate with the impact of job displacement on permanent income. These results highlight how direct measures of consumption distinguish between anticipated and unanticipated shocks to income whereas measures of expenditures obscure the distinction.

The Household Bankruptcy Decision

Personal bankruptcy filings have risen from 0.3 percent of households per year in 1984 to around 1.35 percent in 1998 and 1999, transforming bankruptcy from a rare occurrence to a routine event. Lenders lost about

Home Is Where the Equity Is: Mortgage Refinancing and Household Consumption

39 billion in 1998 due to personal bankruptcy filings. But economists have little understanding of why households file for bankruptcy or why filings have increased so rapidly. Until very recently, studying the household bankruptcy decision was very difficult, because no household-level data set existed that included information on bankruptcy filings. In this paper, we use new data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, which includes information on bankruptcy filings, to estimate a model of households’ bankruptcy decisions. We find support for the strategic model of bankruptcy, which predicts that households are more likely to file when their financial benefit from filing is higher. Our model predicts that an increase of

What Do Small Businesses Do

1,000 in households’ financial benefit from bankruptcy would result in a 7-percent increase in the number of bankruptcy filings. Our model also predicts that if the 1997 National Bankruptcy Review Commission’s proposed changes in bankruptcy exemption levels were implemented, there would be a 16-percent increase in the number of bankruptcy filings each year. But if the

The Transition to Home Ownership and the Black-White Wealth Gap

100,000 cap on homestead exemptions recently passed by the U.S. Senate were adopted, our model predicts that there would be only a negligible effect on the number of filings. We find little support for the nonstrategic model of bankruptcy which predicts that households file when adverse events occur which reduce their ability to repay. Finally, controlling for state and time fixed effects, our model shows that households are more likely to file for bankruptcy if they live in districts with higher aggregate filing rates.

The Wealth Dynamics of American Families, 1984-94

Applying a permanent income model with exogenous liquidity constraints and mortgage behavior, household refinancing when mortgage interest rates are historically high and rising, a persistent empirical puzzle, is explained. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, households experiencing an unemployment shock and having limited initial liquid assets to draw upon are shown to have been 25% more likely to refinance, 1991-94. On average, such liquidity-constrained households converted over two-thirds of every dollar of equity they removed into current consumption as mortgage rates plummeted, 1991-94, producing an estimated expenditure stimulus of at least

Deconstructing Life Cycle Expenditure

28 billion.

The Importance of Business Owners in Assessing the Size of Precautionary Savings

We show that most small business owners are very different from the entrepreneurs that economic models and policymakers often have in mind. Using new data that sample entrepreneurs just before they start their businesses, we show that few small businesses intend to bring a new idea to market or to enter an unserved market. Instead, most intend to provide an existing service to an existing market. Further, we find that most small businesses have little desire to grow big or to innovate in any observable way. We show that such behavior is consistent with the industry characteristics of the majority of small businesses, which are concentrated among skilled craftspeople, lawyers, real estate agents, health care providers, small shopkeepers, and restaurateurs. Lastly, we show that nonpecuniary benefits (being ones own boss, having flexibility of hours, and the like) play a first-order role in the business formation decision. Our findings suggest that the importance of entrepreneurial talent, entrepreneurial luck, and financial frictions in explaining the firm size distribution may be overstated. We conclude by discussing the potential policy implications of our findings.

Precautionary Savings and the Importance of Business Owners

This paper analyzes differences in the likelihood that black and white families become homeowners. By following a sample of black and white renters over time, we are able to separately study racial differences in the likelihood of applying for a mortgage and in the likelihood that a mortgage application is accepted. Although its effect on the race gap in housing transitions is small, we find strong evidence that black applicants are almost twice as likely as comparable white households to be rejected, even when credit history proxies and measures of household wealth are accounted for. We show that the housing transition gap exists primarily because blacks are less likely to apply for mortgages in the first place. The analysis suggests that differences in income, family structure, and in the ability and willingness of parents to provide down-payment assistance are the primary reasons for this applications gap. We speculate that the portion of the gap that remains unexplained after controlling for income, demographics, and wealth may be the result of blacks anticipating a greater chance of rejection when they apply for mortgages.

Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy

DURING THE 1990s, the United States has experienced substantial economic growth in both family income and wealth. The rise in wealth has occurred despite the well-documented decline in traditional saving and investment since the mid1980s. However, because of the lack of panel data on the composition of individual wealth holdings, it has not so far been possible to analyze properly the changing patterns in household wealth accumulation or the distribution of these changes across the population. This paper introduces features of the comprehensive measures of wealth, saving, and income in the Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), in particular, the supplements on household family wealth funded by the National Institute on Aging. These datacurrently available for 1984, 1989, and 1994-permit an improved understanding of a number of issues, such as generational differences in long-term saving and wealth accumulation, differences in the accumulation of wealth between African American and other households, regional differences in accumulation, and the importance for wealth