Erik Ingelsson

Vitamin D Deficiency and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease

Background— Vitamin D receptors have a broad tissue distribution that includes vascular smooth muscle, endothelium, and cardiomyocytes. A growing body of evidence suggests that vitamin D deficiency may adversely affect the cardiovascular system, but data from longitudinal studies are lacking. Methods and Results— We studied 1739 Framingham Offspring Study participants (mean age 59 years; 55% women; all white) without prior cardiovascular disease. Vitamin D status was assessed by measuring 25-dihydroxyvitamin D (25-OH D) levels. Prespecified thresholds were used to characterize varying degrees of 25-OH D deficiency (<15 ng/mL, <10 ng/mL). Multivariable Cox regression models were adjusted for conventional risk factors. Overall, 28% of individuals had levels <15 ng/mL, and 9% had levels <10 ng/mL. During a mean follow-up of 5.4 years, 120 individuals developed a first cardiovascular event. Individuals with 25-OH D <15 ng/mL had a multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio of 1.62 (95% confidence interval 1.11 to 2.36, P=0.01) for incident cardiovascular events compared with those with 25-OH D ≥15 ng/mL. This effect was evident in participants with hypertension (hazard ratio 2.13, 95% confidence interval 1.30 to 3.48) but not in those without hypertension (hazard ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 0.55 to 1.96). There was a graded increase in cardiovascular risk across categories of 25-OH D, with multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios of 1.53 (95% confidence interval 1.00 to 2.36) for levels 10 to <15 ng/mL and 1.80 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 3.08) for levels <10 ng/mL (P for linear trend=0.01). Further adjustment for C-reactive protein, physical activity, or vitamin use did not affect the findings. Conclusions— Vitamin D deficiency is associated with incident cardiovascular disease. Further clinical and experimental studies may be warranted to determine whether correction of vitamin D deficiency could contribute to the prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Diabetes mellitus, fasting blood glucose concentration, and risk of vascular disease: a collaborative meta-analysis of 102 prospective studies

Summary Background Uncertainties persist about the magnitude of associations of diabetes mellitus and fasting glucose concentration with risk of coronary heart disease and major stroke subtypes. We aimed to quantify these associations for a wide range of circumstances. Methods We undertook a meta-analysis of individual records of diabetes, fasting blood glucose concentration, and other risk factors in people without initial vascular disease from studies in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. We combined within-study regressions that were adjusted for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and body-mass index to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for vascular disease. Findings Analyses included data for 698 782 people (52 765 non-fatal or fatal vascular outcomes; 8·49 million person-years at risk) from 102 prospective studies. Adjusted HRs with diabetes were: 2·00 (95% CI 1·83–2·19) for coronary heart disease; 2·27 (1·95–2·65) for ischaemic stroke; 1·56 (1·19–2·05) for haemorrhagic stroke; 1·84 (1·59–2·13) for unclassified stroke; and 1·73 (1·51–1·98) for the aggregate of other vascular deaths. HRs did not change appreciably after further adjustment for lipid, inflammatory, or renal markers. HRs for coronary heart disease were higher in women than in men, at 40–59 years than at 70 years and older, and with fatal than with non-fatal disease. At an adult population-wide prevalence of 10%, diabetes was estimated to account for 11% (10–12%) of vascular deaths. Fasting blood glucose concentration was non-linearly related to vascular risk, with no significant associations between 3·90 mmol/L and 5·59 mmol/L. Compared with fasting blood glucose concentrations of 3·90–5·59 mmol/L, HRs for coronary heart disease were: 1·07 (0·97–1·18) for lower than 3·90 mmol/L; 1·11 (1·04–1·18) for 5·60–6·09 mmol/L; and 1·17 (1·08–1·26) for 6·10–6·99 mmol/L. In people without a history of diabetes, information about fasting blood glucose concentration or impaired fasting glucose status did not significantly improve metrics of vascular disease prediction when added to information about several conventional risk factors. Interpretation Diabetes confers about a two-fold excess risk for a wide range of vascular diseases, independently from other conventional risk factors. In people without diabetes, fasting blood glucose concentration is modestly and non-linearly associated with risk of vascular disease. Funding British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, and Pfizer.BACKGROUND Uncertainties persist about the magnitude of associations of diabetes mellitus and fasting glucose concentration with risk of coronary heart disease and major stroke subtypes. We aimed to quantify these associations for a wide range of circumstances. METHODS We undertook a meta-analysis of individual records of diabetes, fasting blood glucose concentration, and other risk factors in people without initial vascular disease from studies in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. We combined within-study regressions that were adjusted for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and body-mass index to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for vascular disease. FINDINGS Analyses included data for 698 782 people (52 765 non-fatal or fatal vascular outcomes; 8.49 million person-years at risk) from 102 prospective studies. Adjusted HRs with diabetes were: 2.00 (95% CI 1.83-2.19) for coronary heart disease; 2.27 (1.95-2.65) for ischaemic stroke; 1.56 (1.19-2.05) for haemorrhagic stroke; 1.84 (1.59-2.13) for unclassified stroke; and 1.73 (1.51-1.98) for the aggregate of other vascular deaths. HRs did not change appreciably after further adjustment for lipid, inflammatory, or renal markers. HRs for coronary heart disease were higher in women than in men, at 40-59 years than at 70 years and older, and with fatal than with non-fatal disease. At an adult population-wide prevalence of 10%, diabetes was estimated to account for 11% (10-12%) of vascular deaths. Fasting blood glucose concentration was non-linearly related to vascular risk, with no significant associations between 3.90 mmol/L and 5.59 mmol/L. Compared with fasting blood glucose concentrations of 3.90-5.59 mmol/L, HRs for coronary heart disease were: 1.07 (0.97-1.18) for lower than 3.90 mmol/L; 1.11 (1.04-1.18) for 5.60-6.09 mmol/L; and 1.17 (1.08-1.26) for 6.10-6.99 mmol/L. In people without a history of diabetes, information about fasting blood glucose concentration or impaired fasting glucose status did not significantly improve metrics of vascular disease prediction when added to information about several conventional risk factors. INTERPRETATION Diabetes confers about a two-fold excess risk for a wide range of vascular diseases, independently from other conventional risk factors. In people without diabetes, fasting blood glucose concentration is modestly and non-linearly associated with risk of vascular disease. FUNDING British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, and Pfizer.

Use of Multiple Biomarkers to Improve the Prediction of Death from Cardiovascular Causes

BACKGROUND The incremental usefulness of adding multiple biomarkers from different disease pathways for predicting the risk of death from cardiovascular causes has not, to our knowledge, been evaluated among the elderly. METHODS We used data from the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM), a community-based cohort of elderly men, to investigate whether a combination of biomarkers that reflect myocardial cell damage, left ventricular dysfunction, renal failure, and inflammation (troponin I, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, cystatin C, and C-reactive protein, respectively) improved the risk stratification of a person beyond an assessment that was based on the established risk factors for cardiovascular disease (age, systolic blood pressure, use or nonuse of antihypertensive treatment, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, use or nonuse of lipid-lowering treatment, presence or absence of diabetes, smoking status, and body-mass index). RESULTS During follow-up (median, 10.0 years), 315 of the 1135 participants in our study (mean age, 71 years at baseline) died; 136 deaths were the result of cardiovascular disease. In Cox proportional-hazards models adjusted for established risk factors, all of the biomarkers significantly predicted the risk of death from cardiovascular causes. The C statistic increased significantly when the four biomarkers were incorporated into a model with established risk factors, both in the whole cohort (C statistic with biomarkers vs. without biomarkers, 0.766 vs. 0.664; P<0.001) and in the group of 661 participants who did not have cardiovascular disease at baseline (0.748 vs. 0.688, P=0.03). The improvement in risk assessment remained strong when it was estimated by other statistical measures of model discrimination, calibration, and global fit. CONCLUSIONS Our data suggest that in elderly men with or without prevalent cardiovascular disease, the simultaneous addition of several biomarkers of cardiovascular and renal abnormalities substantially improves the risk stratification for death from cardiovascular causes beyond that of a model that is based only on established risk factors.

Variants in ELL2 influencing immunoglobulin levels associate with multiple myeloma

Multiple myeloma (MM) is characterized by an uninhibited, clonal growth of plasma cells. While first-degree relatives of patients with MM show an increased risk of MM, the genetic basis of inherited MM susceptibility is incompletely understood. Here we report a genome-wide association study in the Nordic region identifying a novel MM risk locus at ELL2 (rs56219066T; odds ratio (OR)=1.25; P=9.6 × 10−10). This gene encodes a stoichiometrically limiting component of the super-elongation complex that drives secretory-specific immunoglobulin mRNA production and transcriptional regulation in plasma cells. We find that the MM risk allele harbours a Thr298Ala missense variant in an ELL2 domain required for transcription elongation. Consistent with a hypomorphic effect, we find that the MM risk allele also associates with reduced levels of immunoglobulin A (IgA) and G (IgG) in healthy subjects (P=8.6 × 10−9 and P=6.4 × 10−3, respectively) and, potentially, with an increased risk of bacterial meningitis (OR=1.30; P=0.0024).

Impact of Body Mass Index and the Metabolic Syndrome on the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Death in Middle-Aged Men

Background— The purpose of this study was to investigate associations between combinations of body mass index (BMI) categories and metabolic syndrome (MetS) and the risk of cardiovascular disease and death in middle-aged men. Methods and Results— At age 50 years, cardiovascular risk factors were assessed in 1758 participants without diabetes in the community-based Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM). According to BMI-MetS status, they were categorized as normal weight (BMI <25 kg/m2) without MetS (National Cholesterol Education Program criteria; n=891), normal weight with MetS (n=64), overweight (BMI 25 to 30 kg/m2) without MetS (n=582), overweight with MetS (n=125), obese (BMI >30 kg/m2) without MetS (n=30), or obese with MetS (n=66). During follow-up (median 30 years), 788 participants died, and 681 developed cardiovascular disease (composite of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure). In Cox proportional-hazards models that adjusted for age, smoking, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, an increased risk for cardiovascular disease was observed in normal-weight participants with MetS (hazard ratio 1.63, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 2.37), overweight participants without MetS (hazard ratio 1.52, 95% confidence interval 1.28 to 1.80), overweight participants with MetS (hazard ratio 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.32 to 2.30), obese participants without MetS (hazard ratio 1.95, 95% confidence interval 1.14 to 3.34), and obese participants with MetS (hazard ratio 2.55, 95% confidence interval 1.81 to 3.58) compared with normal-weight individuals without MetS. These BMI-MetS categories significantly predicted total mortality rate in a similar pattern. Conclusions— Middle-aged men with MetS had increased risk for cardiovascular events and total death regardless of BMI status during more than 30 years of follow-up. In contrast to previous reports, overweight and obese individuals without MetS also had an increased risk. The present data refute the notion that overweight and obesity without MetS are benign conditions.

Interleukin-6 receptor pathways in coronary heart disease: a collaborative meta-analysis of 82 studies.

Summary Background Persistent inflammation has been proposed to contribute to various stages in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease. Interleukin-6 receptor (IL6R) signalling propagates downstream inflammation cascades. To assess whether this pathway is causally relevant to coronary heart disease, we studied a functional genetic variant known to affect IL6R signalling. Methods In a collaborative meta-analysis, we studied Asp358Ala (rs2228145) in IL6R in relation to a panel of conventional risk factors and inflammation biomarkers in 125 222 participants. We also compared the frequency of Asp358Ala in 51 441 patients with coronary heart disease and in 136 226 controls. To gain insight into possible mechanisms, we assessed Asp358Ala in relation to localised gene expression and to postlipopolysaccharide stimulation of interleukin 6. Findings The minor allele frequency of Asp358Ala was 39%. Asp358Ala was not associated with lipid concentrations, blood pressure, adiposity, dysglycaemia, or smoking (p value for association per minor allele ≥0·04 for each). By contrast, for every copy of 358Ala inherited, mean concentration of IL6R increased by 34·3% (95% CI 30·4–38·2) and of interleukin 6 by 14·6% (10·7–18·4), and mean concentration of C-reactive protein was reduced by 7·5% (5·9–9·1) and of fibrinogen by 1·0% (0·7–1·3). For every copy of 358Ala inherited, risk of coronary heart disease was reduced by 3·4% (1·8–5·0). Asp358Ala was not related to IL6R mRNA levels or interleukin-6 production in monocytes. Interpretation Large-scale human genetic and biomarker data are consistent with a causal association between IL6R-related pathways and coronary heart disease. Funding British Heart Foundation; UK Medical Research Council; UK National Institute of Health Research, Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre; BUPA Foundation.

Plasma parathyroid hormone and the risk of cardiovascular mortality in the community

Background— Diseases with elevated levels of parathyroid hormone (PTH) such as primary and secondary hyperparathyroidism are associated with increased incidence of cardiovascular disease and death. However, data on the prospective association between circulating PTH levels and cardiovascular mortality in the community are lacking. Methods and Results— The Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM), a community-based cohort of elderly men (mean age, 71 years; n=958), was used to investigate the association between plasma PTH and cardiovascular mortality. During follow-up (median, 9.7 years), 117 participants died of cardiovascular causes. In Cox proportional-hazards models adjusted for established cardiovascular risk factors (age, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, smoking, body mass index, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, antihypertensive treatment, lipid-lowering treatment, and history of cardiovascular disease), higher plasma PTH was associated with higher risk for cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio for 1-SD increase in PTH, 1.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.18 to 1.60; P<0.001). This association remained essentially unaltered in participants without previous cardiovascular disease and in participants with normal PTH (<6.8 pmol/L) with no other signs of a disturbed mineral metabolism (normal serum calcium, 2.2 to 2.6 mmol/L; normal glomerular filtration rate, >50 mL · min−1 · 1.73 m−2 and without vitamin D deficiency, plasma 25-OH vitamin D >37.5 nmol/L). Interestingly, elevated plasma PTH (>5.27 pmol/L) accounted for 20% (95% confidence interval, 10 to 26) of the population-attributable risk proportion for cardiovascular mortality. Conclusions— Plasma PTH levels predict cardiovascular mortality in the community, even in individuals with PTH within the normal range. Further studies are warranted to evaluate the clinical implications of measuring PTH in cardiovascular risk prediction and to elucidate whether PTH is a modifiable risk factor.

The validity of a diagnosis of heart failure in a hospital discharge register.

The accuracy of a diagnosis of heart failure (HF) in hospital discharge registers is largely unknown. We aimed to determine the validity of such a diagnosis in the Swedish hospital discharge register.

Loss-of-function mutations in SLC30A8 protect against type 2 diabetes

Loss-of-function mutations protective against human disease provide in vivo validation of therapeutic targets, but none have yet been described for type 2 diabetes (T2D). Through sequencing or genotyping of ∼150,000 individuals across 5 ancestry groups, we identified 12 rare protein-truncating variants in SLC30A8, which encodes an islet zinc transporter (ZnT8) and harbors a common variant (p.Trp325Arg) associated with T2D risk and glucose and proinsulin levels. Collectively, carriers of protein-truncating variants had 65% reduced T2D risk (P = 1.7 × 10−6), and non-diabetic Icelandic carriers of a frameshift variant (p.Lys34Serfs*50) demonstrated reduced glucose levels (−0.17 s.d., P = 4.6 × 10−4). The two most common protein-truncating variants (p.Arg138* and p.Lys34Serfs*50) individually associate with T2D protection and encode unstable ZnT8 proteins. Previous functional study of SLC30A8 suggested that reduced zinc transport increases T2D risk, and phenotypic heterogeneity was observed in mouse Slc30a8 knockouts. In contrast, loss-of-function mutations in humans provide strong evidence that SLC30A8 haploinsufficiency protects against T2D, suggesting ZnT8 inhibition as a therapeutic strategy in T2D prevention.

Genetic variance estimation with imputed variants finds negligible missing heritability for human height and body mass index

We propose a method (GREML-LDMS) to estimate heritability for human complex traits in unrelated individuals using whole-genome sequencing data. We demonstrate using simulations based on whole-genome sequencing data that ∼97% and ∼68% of variation at common and rare variants, respectively, can be captured by imputation. Using the GREML-LDMS method, we estimate from 44,126 unrelated individuals that all ∼17 million imputed variants explain 56% (standard error (s.e.) = 2.3%) of variance for height and 27% (s.e. = 2.5%) of variance for body mass index (BMI), and we find evidence that height- and BMI-associated variants have been under natural selection. Considering the imperfect tagging of imputation and potential overestimation of heritability from previous family-based studies, heritability is likely to be 60–70% for height and 30–40% for BMI. Therefore, the missing heritability is small for both traits. For further discovery of genes associated with complex traits, a study design with SNP arrays followed by imputation is more cost-effective than whole-genome sequencing at current prices.