Erik R. Ivins

A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance

Warming and Melting Mass loss from the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica account for a large fraction of global sea-level rise. Part of this loss is because of the effects of warmer air temperatures, and another because of the rising ocean temperatures to which they are being exposed. Joughin et al. (p. 1172) review how ocean-ice interactions are impacting ice sheets and discuss the possible ways that exposure of floating ice shelves and grounded ice margins are subject to the influences of warming ocean currents. Estimates of the mass balance of the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have differed greatly—in some cases, not even agreeing about whether there is a net loss or a net gain—making it more difficult to project accurately future sea-level change. Shepherd et al. (p. 1183) combined data sets produced by satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry to construct a more robust ice-sheet mass balance for the period between 1992 and 2011. All major regions of the two ice sheets appear to be losing mass, except for East Antarctica. All told, mass loss from the polar ice sheets is contributing about 0.6 millimeters per year (roughly 20% of the total) to the current rate of global sea-level rise. The mass balance of the polar ice sheets is estimated by combining the results of existing independent techniques. We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth’s polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods—especially in Greenland and West Antarctica—and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by –142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, –65 ± 26, and –20 ± 14 gigatonnes year−1, respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year−1 to the rate of global sea-level rise.

Antarctic glacial isostatic adjustment: a new assessment

The prediction of crustal motions and gravity change driven by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in Antarctica is critically dependent on the reconstruction of the configuration and thickness of the ice sheet during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. The collection and analysis of field data to improve the reconstruction has occurred at an accelerated pace during the past decade. At the same time, space-based imaging and altimetry, combined with on-ice velocity measurements using Global Positioning System (GPS) geodesy, has provided better assessments of the present-day mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet. Present-day mass change appears to be dominated by deglaciation that is, in large part, a continuation of late-Holocene evolution. Here a new ice load model is constructed, based on a synthesis of the current constraints on past ice history and present-day mass balance. The load is used to predict GIA crustal motion and geoid change. Compared to existing glacioisostatic models, the new ice history model is significantly improved in four aspects: (i) the timing of volume losses in the region ranging from the Ross Sea sector to the Antarctic Peninsula, (ii) the maximum ice heights in parts of the Ellsworth and Transantarctic Mountains, (iii) maximum grounding line position in Pine Island Bay, the Antarctic Peninsula, and in the Ross Sea, (iv) incorporation of present-day net mass balance estimates. The predicted present-day GIA uplift rates peak at 14–18 mm yr−1 and geoid rates peak at 4–5 mm yr−1 for two contrasting viscosity models. If the asthenosphere underlying West Antarctica has a low viscosity then the predictions could change substantially due to the extreme sensitivity to recent (past two millennia) ice mass variability. Future observations of crustal motion and gravity change will substantially improve the understanding of sub-Antarctic lithospheric and mantle rheology.

Ice-sheet mass balance and climate change

Since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, new observations of ice-sheet mass balance and improved computer simulations of ice-sheet response to continuing climate change have been published. Whereas Greenland is losing ice mass at an increasing pace, current Antarctic ice loss is likely to be less than some recently published estimates. It remains unclear whether East Antarctica has been gaining or losing ice mass over the past 20 years, and uncertainties in ice-mass change for West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula remain large. We discuss the past six years of progress and examine the key problems that remain.

Patagonia Icefield melting observed by Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)

[1] Using recently released reprocessed gravity solutions from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), we estimate the ice loss rate for the Patagonia Icefield (PIF) of South America, for the period April 2002 through December 2006. After postglacial rebound and hydrological effects are corrected, the estimated rate is - 27.9 ± 11 km 3 /year, equivalent to an average loss of ∼-1.6 m/year ice thickness change if evenly distributed over the entire PIF area. The estimated contribution to global sea level rise is 0.078 ± 0.031 mm/year. This is an independent confirmation of relatively large melting rate estimates from earlier studies employing topographic and cartographic data.

Transient Creep of a Composite Lower Crust. 2; A Polymineralic Basis for Rapidly Evolving Postseismic Deformation Modes

Postseismic horizontal strain and displacement following the June 28, 1992, Landers, California, earthquake (MW 7.3) is broad scale and cannot be explained solely by delayed afterslip located at the rupturing fault trace. Both the observed strain at Pinon Flat Observatory (PFO) and observed Global Positioning System receiver velocities evolve rapidly after the Landers-Big Bear earthquake sequence. The observed exponential decay of these motions, with timescales of 4–34 days, may reflect a soft creep rheology in the lower crust and brittle-ductile transition zone or even within the seismogenic crust itself. Here a simple model of a two-dimensional screw dislocation in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic Earth is employed in conjunction with a composite rheology to demonstrate that the short timescale transient response modes (≈4–34 days) are consistent with the behavior of a biviscous lower crust. The lowest viscosity of this system is derivable from laboratory experimental data on the long-term creep of natural quarztites, and the highest viscosity is consistent with isostasy-related lower crustal flow in a continental extensional tectonic environment. The model predicts significant stress relaxation at the base of the seismogenic crust. Near the base of the seismogenic zone, and about 4 km away from the mainshock, the rate of predicted relaxation is of the order of 0.01 MPa d−1 during the first 20 days of postseismic flow. Oblate spheroidal inclusions at 5% concentration levels that are both aligned and fairly flat in shape and that have a viscosity of 3–4 × 1015 Pa s are consistent with both the amplitude and decay time of horizontal crustal strain observed at PFO after the Landers mainshock. It is speculated that the structures exposed in cross sections and in seismic reflection profiles of the lower crust that have mylonitic associations are, in part, the cause of such rapid postseismic evolution in southeastern California. Unmylonitized quartz-rich rock at sufficiently elevated temperatures could also contribute to the rapid decay modes.

Site distribution and aliasing effects in the inversion for load coefficients and geocenter motion from GPS data

Precise GPS measurements of elastic relative site displacements due to surface mass loading offer important constraints on global surface mass transport. We investigate effects of site distribution and aliasing by higher-degree (n greater than or equal 2) loading terms on inversion of GPS data for n = 1 load coefficients and geocenter motion. Covariance and simulation analyses are conducted to assess the sensitivity of the inversion to aliasing and mismodeling errors and possible uncertainties in the n = 1 load coefficient determination. We found that the use of center-of-figure approximation in the inverse formulation could cause 10- 15% errors in the inverted load coefficients. n = 1 load estimates may be contaminated significantly by unknown higher-degree terms, depending on the load scenario and the GPS site distribution. The uncertainty in n = 1 zonal load estimate is at the level of 80 - 95% for two load scenarios.

Present‐day Antarctic ice mass changes and crustal motion

The peak vertical velocities predicted by three realistic, but contrasting, present-day scenarios of Antarctic ice sheet mass balance are found to be of the order of several mm/a. One scenario predicts local uplift rates in excess of 5 mm/a. These rates are small compared to the peak Antarctic vertical velocities of the ICE-3G glacial rebound model, which are in excess of 20 mm/a. If the Holocene Antarctic deglaciation history portrayed in ICE-3G is realistic, and if regional upper mantle viscosity is not an order of magnitude below 10(exp 21) pa s, then a vast geographical region in West Antarctica is uplifting at a rate that could be detected by a future Global Positioning System (GPS) campaign. While present-day scenarios predict small vertical crustal velocities, their overall continent-ocean mass exchange is large enough to account for a substantial portion of the observed secular polar motion ((Omega)m(bar)) and time-varying zonal gravity field J(sub 1).

The influence of 5000 year-old and younger glacial mass variability on present-day crustal rebound in the Antarctic Peninsula

Assessment of Antarctic rebound is complicated by two issues: (1) The total ice volume at Last Glacial Maximum is contentious, with estimates ranging from just a few meters to several tens of meters of equivalent eustatic sea level rise. (2) The late-Holocene mass budget is also uncertain. Space-based geodesy may provide important data in the coming years for estimating the recent ice mass balance state of Antarctica. Toward this end, GPS has an important role for isolating the solid earth movements that are associated with postglacial rebound. Here we provide numerical examples of vertical motions that are predicted by coupling realistic glacial load histories to 20th century ice mass imbalance estimates for the Antarctic Peninsula. The main complexity revealed by these examples is the striking difference among predictions that have an oscillatory mass change during the last 5000 to 50 years, as opposed to those having a continuous (non-oscillatory) mass drawdown of the grounded ice sheet.

Climate-driven polar motion: 2003-2015.

Ice sheets and continental hydrology changes on decadal time scales are the dominant drivers of decadal scale polar motion. Earth’s spin axis has been wandering along the Greenwich meridian since about 2000, representing a 75° eastward shift from its long-term drift direction. The past 115 years have seen unequivocal evidence for a quasi-decadal periodicity, and these motions persist throughout the recent record of pole position, in spite of the new drift direction. We analyze space geodetic and satellite gravimetric data for the period 2003–2015 to show that all of the main features of polar motion are explained by global-scale continent-ocean mass transport. The changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) and global cryosphere together explain nearly the entire amplitude (83 ± 23%) and mean directional shift (within 5.9° ± 7.6°) of the observed motion. We also find that the TWS variability fully explains the decadal-like changes in polar motion observed during the study period, thus offering a clue to resolving the long-standing quest for determining the origins of decadal oscillations. This newly discovered link between polar motion and global-scale TWS variability has broad implications for the study of past and future climate.

Extensional reactivation of an abandoned thrust: a bound on shallowing in the brittle regime

Abstract Shallow dip angles (⩽45°) suggested by field observations of continental extensional faults are not predicted by classical isotropic Mohr-Coulomb-Anderson theory. Earthquake data indicate that normal faults exist in the upper crust with dip angles commonly as shallow as 30°. Some structural evidence suggests brittle-normal faulting with dip angles as shallow as 10°. One explanation of the apparent conflict between theory and structural/seismic observations is that intrinsically weak, shallow-dipping pre-existing faults are preferentially reactivated. Any reduction in frictional strength of the pre-existing structure below that of surrounding rock increases the likelihood that such structures will be first breaking when extension is initiated. Enhanced fluid pore pressure on the pre-existing fault reduces the effective strength and can further enhance shallow fault reactivation. An analytical treatment clarifies the roles of geometry, intact/pre-existing fault strengths and fluid pore pressures. Frictional strength ratios of 3 or greater could account for extremely shallow normal faults (dips 10–20°) without consideration of pore pressures in excess of the least principal stress or of principal stress systems rotated away from the gravity vector. Moderate reduction in friction ( 3 4 ) with respect to wall rock can reduce the dip to 30° and can account for shallow normal-slip earthquakes.