Erika Ebranati

Phylogeography and epidemiological history of West Nile virus genotype 1a in Europe and the Mediterranean basin.

Aim of this study was to reconstruct the temporal and spatial phylodynamics of WNV-1a, the genotype to which the majority of European/Mediterranean viral strains belongs, by using sequences retrieved from public databases. WNV-1a isolates segregated into two major clades: the recent West Mediterranean sequences formed a single monophyletic group within clade A. Clade B included sequences from East Mediterranean and America. Phylogeographic analysis suggested that WNV-1a probably originated in sub-Saharan Africa in the early XXth century, and then spread northwards since the late 1970s, via two routes: one crossing Eastern Mediterranean and the other the Western Mediterranean countries. Our data suggest that the circulation of the virus in a given geographical area usually precedes the onset of the outbreak by one year or more, and underline the importance of the spatial-temporal phylodynamics reconstruction in clarifying the recent epidemiology and in setting up an efficient surveillance system for emerging/reemerging zoonosis.

Population dynamics of HIV-1 subtype B in a cohort of men-having-sex-with- men in Rome, Italy

A recent increase in HIV diagnoses among men-having-sex-with-men (MSM) has been shown by surveillance data from Europe and Italy, and new approaches to inferring viral population dynamics from heterochronously sampled gene sequences have been developed. The aim of this study was to reconstruct the epidemiological history of HIV-1 subtype B in a homogeneous group of Italian MSM using a coalescent-based Bayesian framework. A total of 125 HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences were analyzed using Bayesian methods and a relaxed molecular clock to reconstruct their dated phylogeny and estimate population dynamics. At least 10 epidemiological clusters of 3-9 isolates were identified: half including the largest clades originated in the early 1990s and the other half radiated from 1999. Demographic analysis showed that the HIV epidemic grew in accordance with a logistic model characterized by a rapid exponential increase in the effective number of infections (r = 1.54 year−1) starting from the early 1980s and reaching a plateau 10 years later. Our data suggest that the HIV B epidemic entered our MSM population through multiple transmission chains about 20 years later than in other Western European country. Epidemiological clusters originating in the early 2000s suggest a recent re-emergence of HIV in Italian MSM.

Enigmatic origin of hepatitis B virus: An ancient travelling companion or a recent encounter?

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is the leading cause of liver disease and infects an estimated 240 million people worldwide. It is characterised by a high degree of genetic heterogeneity because of the use of a reverse transcriptase during viral replication. The ten genotypes (A-J) that have been described so far further segregate into a number of subgenotypes which have distinct ethno-geographic distribution. Genotypes A and D are ubiquitous and the most prevalent genotypes in Europe (mainly represented by subgenotypes D1-3 and A2); genotypes B and C are restricted to eastern Asia and Oceania; genotype E to central and western Africa; and genotypes H and F (classified into 4 subgenotypes) to Latin America and Alaska. This review summarises the data obtained by studying the global phylodynamics and phylogeography of HBV genotypes, particularly those concerning the origin and dispersion histories of genotypes A, D, E and F and their subgenotypes. The lack of any consensus concerning the HBV substitution rate and the conflicting data obtained using different calibration approaches make the time of origin and divergence of the various genotypes and subgenotypes largely uncertain. It is hypothesised that HBV evolutionary rates are time dependent, and that the changes depend on the main transmission routes of the genotypes and the dynamics of the infected populations.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Hepatitis B Virus D Genotype in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin

Hepatitis B virus genotype D can be found in many parts of the world and is the most prevalent strain in south-eastern Europe, the Mediterranean Basin, the Middle East, and the Indian sub-continent. The epidemiological history of the D genotype and its subgenotypes is still obscure because of the scarcity of appropriate studies. We retrieved from public databases a total of 312 gene P sequences of HBV genotype D isolated in various countries throughout the world, and reconstructed the spatio-temporal evolutionary dynamics of the HBV-D epidemic using a Bayesian framework. The phylogeographical analysis showed that India had the highest posterior probability of being the location of the tree root, whereas central Asia was the most probable location of the common ancestor of subgenotypes D1–D3. HBV-D5 (identified in native Indian populations) diverged from the tree root earlier than D1–D3. The time of the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of the tree root was 128 years ago, which suggests that the common ancestor of the currently circulating subgenotypes existed in the second half of the XIX century. The mean tMRCA of subgenotypes D1–D3 was between the 1940s and the 1950–60s. On the basis of our phylogeographic reconstruction, it seems that HBV-D reached the Mediterranean area in the middle of the XX century by means of at least two routes: the first pathway (mainly due to the spread of subgenotype D1) crossing the Middle East and reaching north Africa and the eastern Mediterranean, and the second pathway (closely associated with D2) that crossed the former Soviet Union and reached eastern Europe and the Mediterranean through Albania. We hypothesise that the main route of dispersion of genotype D was the unsafe use of injections and drug addiction.

Extended Genetic Diversity of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus and Frequency of Genotypes and Subtypes in Cattle in Italy between 1995 and 2013

Genetic typing of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) has distinguished BVDV-1 and BVDV-2 species and an emerging putative third species (HoBi-like virus), recently detected in southern Italy, signaling the occurrence of natural infection in Europe. Recognizing the need to update the data on BVDV genetic variability in Italy for mounting local and European alerts, a wide collection of 5′ UTR sequences (n = 371) was selected to identify the frequency of genotypes and subtypes at the herd level. BVDV-1 had the highest frequency, followed by sporadic BVDV-2. No novel HoBi-like viruses were identified. Four distribution patterns of BVDV-1 subtypes were observed: highly prevalent subtypes with a wide temporal-spatial distribution (1b and 1e), low prevalent subtypes with a widespread geographic distribution (1a, 1d, 1g, 1h, and 1k) or a restricted geographic distribution (1f), and sporadic subtypes detected only in single herds (1c, 1j, and 1l). BVDV-1c, k, and l are reported for the first time in Italy. A unique genetic variant was detected in the majority of herds, but cocirculation of genetic variants was also observed. Northern Italy ranked first for BVDV introduction, prevalence, and dispersion. Nevertheless, the presence of sporadic variants in other restricted areas suggests the risk of different routes of BVDV introduction.

Within-host dynamics of the hepatitis C virus quasispecies population in HIV-1/HCV coinfected patients

HIV/HCV coinfected individuals under highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) represent an interesting model for the investigation of the role played by the immune system in driving the evolution of the HCV quasispecies. We prospectively studied the intra-host evolution of the HCV heterogeneity in 8 coinfected subjects, selected from a cohort of 32 patients initiating HAART: 5 immunological responders (group A) and 3 immunological non-responders (group B), and in two HCV singly infected controls not assuming drugs (group C). For all these subjects at least two serial samples obtained at the first observation (before HAART) and more than 1 year later, underwent clonal sequence analysis of partial E1/E2 sequences, encompassing the whole HVR1. Evolutionary rates, dated phylogenies and population dynamics were co-estimated by using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach, and site specific selection pressures were estimated by maximum likelihood-based methods. The intra-host evolutionary rates of HCV quasispecies was 10 times higher in subjects treated with HAART than in controls without immunodeficiency (1.9 and 2.3×10−3 sub/site/month in group A and B and 0.29×10−3 sub/site/month in group C individuals). The within-host Bayesian Skyline plot analysis showed an exponential growth of the quasispecies populations in immunological responders, coinciding with a peak in CD4 cell counts. On the contrary, quasispecies population remained constant in group B and in group C controls. A significant positive selection pressure was detected in a half of the patients under HAART and in none of the group C controls. Several sites under significant positive selection were described, mainly included in the HVR1. Our data indicate that different forces, in addition to the selection pressure, drive an exceptionally fast evolution of HCV during HAART immune restoration. We hypothesize that an important role is played by the enlargement of the viral replicative space.

Phylogeography and phylodynamics of European genotype 3 hepatitis E virus.

Hepatitis E virus is classified into four genotypes that have different geographical and host distributions. The main cause of sporadic autochthonous type E acute hepatitis in developed countries is genotype 3, which has a worldwide distribution and widely infects pigs. The aim of this study was to make hypotheses concerning the origin and global dispersion routes of this genotype by reconstructing the spatial and temporal dynamics of 208 HEV genotype 3 ORF-2 sequences (retrieved from public databases) isolated in different geographical areas. The evolutionary rates, time of the most recent common ancestors (tMRCAs), epidemic growth and phylogeography of HEV-3 were co-estimated using a MCMC Bayesian method. The maximum clade credibility tree showed the existence of two distinct main clades: clade A, which consists of only European subtypes (HEV-3e and 3f), and clade B, which consists of European subtype 3c and all of the Asian subtypes (3a, 3b and 3d) sharing a common ancestor, which most probably existed in Asia in 1920s. All of the North American isolates belonged to Asian subtype 3a. On the basis of our time-scaled phylogeographical reconstruction, we hypothesise that after originating in the early 1800s in Europe, HEV reached Asia in the first decades of 1900, and then moved to America probably in the 1970s-1980s. Analysis of the skyline plot showed a sharp increase of the number of infections between the 1980s and 2005, thus suggesting the intervention of new and highly efficient routes of transmission possibly related to changes in the pig industry.

Bayesian Phylogeography of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus in Europe

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a zoonosis mainly transmitted by ticks that causes severe hemorrhagic fever and has a mortality rate of 5-60%. The first outbreak of CCHF occurred in the Crimean peninsula in 1944-45 and it has recently emerged in the Balkans and eastern Mediterranean. In order to reconstruct the origin and pathway of the worldwide dispersion of the virus at global and regional (eastern European) level, we investigated the phylogeography of the infection by analysing 121 publicly available CCHFV S gene sequences including two recently characterised Albanian isolates. The spatial and temporal phylogeny was reconstructed using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo approach, which estimated a mean evolutionary rate of 2.96 x 10-4 (95%HPD=1.6 and 4.7 x 10-4) substitutions/site/year for the analysed fragment. All of the isolates segregated into seven highly significant clades that correspond to the known geographical clades: in particular the two new isolates from northern Albania clustered significantly within the Europe 1 clade. Our phylogeographical reconstruction suggests that the global CCHFV clades originated about one thousand years ago from a common ancestor probably located in Africa. The virus then spread to Asia in the XV century and entered Europe on at least two occasions: the first in the early 1800s, when a still circulating but less or non-pathogenic virus emerged in Greece and Turkey, and the second in the early 1900s, when a pathogenic CCHFV strain began to spread in eastern Europe. The most probable location for the origin of this European clade 1 was Russia, but Turkey played a central role in spreading the virus throughout Europe. Given the close proximity of the infected areas, our data suggest that the movement of wild and domestic ungulates from endemic areas was probably the main cause of the dissemination of the virus in eastern Europe.

Phylogeny and population dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (Rsv) A and B

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract infections in infants and young children. RSV is characterised by high variability, especially in the G glycoprotein, which may play a significant role in RSV pathogenicity by allowing immune evasion. To reconstruct the origin and phylodynamic history of RSV, we evaluated the genetic diversity and evolutionary dynamics of RSV A and RSV B isolated from children under 3 years old infected in Italy from 2006 to 2012. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that most of the RSV A sequences clustered with the NA1 genotype, and RSV B sequences were included in the Buenos Aires genotype. The mean evolutionary rates for RSV A and RSV B were estimated to be 2.1 × 10(-3) substitutions (subs)/site/year and 3.03 × 10(-3) subs/site/year, respectively. The time of most recent common ancestor for the tree root went back to the 1940s (95% highest posterior density-HPD: 1927-1951) for RSV A and the 1950s (95%HPD: 1951-1960) for RSV B. The RSV A Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) showed a decrease in transmission events ending in about 2005, when a sharp growth restored the original viral population size. RSV B BSP showed a similar trend. Site-specific selection analysis identified 10 codons under positive selection in RSV A sequences and only one site in RSV B sequences. Although RSV remains difficult to control due to its antigenic diversity, it is important to monitor changes in its coding sequences, to permit the identification of future epidemic strains and to implement vaccine and therapy strategies.

Reconstruction of the evolutionary dynamics of hepatitis C virus subtypes in Montenegro and the Balkan region

More than 20 million hepatitis C virus (HCV) carriers live in the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean. We determined HCV genotype distribution among chronically infected patients in Montenegro and investigated the phylodynamics and phylogeography of the most represented HCV subtypes. The HCV-NS5b sequences of the Montenegrin patients were compared with sequences isolated in different known localities of the Mediterranean area, Europe and Asia. A Bayesian approach was used in order to allow the simultaneous estimate of the evolutionary rate, time-scaled phylogeny, demography and ancestral spatial status. The most frequent HCV subtypes among the Montenegrin patients, were 1b (34.7%) and 3a (24.7%), but there was also a significant prevalence of 1a and 4d (19.5%). Subtype 3a was significantly more frequent among younger patients and intravenous drug users (IDUs), whereas subtype 1b was more frequently associated with iatrogenic exposure and older ages. The spatio-temporal analysis of the epidemic suggested that HCV-1b penetrated Europe at the beginning of the XX century, probably through Greece and Cyprus and in the 1920s reached Montenegro, where there was an exponential increase in the effective number of infections between the 1950s and 1970s. The phylogeographic and phylodynamic analysis of HCV 3a showed that its most probable origin was in the Indian sub-continent (Pakistan in our reconstruction) about 300years ago. The evolutionary dynamics analysis showed that HCV-3a reached Montenegro more recently in the late 1970s and underwent multi-phasic growth still persisting. Our data suggest multiple introduction of HCV subtypes in the area, supported by different causes of dispersion: adverse social conditions and unsafe medical practices for HCV-1b and i.v. drug use for HCV-3a.