Erika Ronchin

Impoundment of the Zipingpu reservoir and triggering of the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, China

Abstract Impoundment of the Zipingpu reservoir (ZR), China, began in September 2005 and was followed 2.7 years later by the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake (WE) rupturing the Longmen Shan Fault (LSF), with its epicenter ~12 km away from the ZR. Based on the poroelastic theory, we employ three‐dimensional finite element models to simulate the evolution of stress and pore pressure due to reservoir impoundment, and its effect on the Coulomb failure stress on the LSF. The results indicate that the reservoir impoundment formed a pore pressure front that slowly propagated through the crust with fluid diffusion. The reservoir loading induced either moderate or no increase of the Coulomb failure stress at the hypocenter prior to the WE. The Coulomb failure stress, however, grew ~9.3–69.1 kPa in the depth range of 1–8 km on the LSF, which may have advanced tectonic loading of the fault system by ~60–450 years. Due to uncertainties of fault geometry and hypocenter location of the WE, it is inconclusive whether impoundment of the ZR directly triggered the WE. However, a small event at the hypocenter could have triggered large rupture elsewhere on fault, where the asperities were weakened by the ZR. The microseismicity around the ZR also showed an expanding pattern from the ZR since its impoundment, likely associated with diffusion of a positive pore pressure pulse. These results suggest a poroelastic triggering effect (even if indirectly) of the WE due to the impoundment of the ZR.

Solid modeling techniques to build 3D finite element models of volcanic systems: An example from the Rabaul Caldera system, Papua New Guinea

Simulating the deformation of active volcanoes is challenging due to inherent mechanical complexities associated with heterogeneous distributions of rheologic properties and irregular geometries associated with the topography and bathymetry. From geologic and tomographic studies we know that geologic bodies naturally have complex 3D shapes. Finite element models (FEMs) are capable of simulating the pressurization of magma intrusions into mechanical domains with arbitrary geometric and geologic complexity. We construct FEMs comprising pressurization (due to magma intrusion) within an assemblage of 3D parts having common mechanical properties for Rabaul Caldera, Papua New Guinea. We use information of material properties distributed on discrete points mainly deduced from topography, geology, seismicity, and tomography of Rabaul Caldera to first create contours of each part and successively to generate each 3D part shape by lofting the volume through the contours. The implementation of Abaqus CAE with Python scripts allows for automated execution of hundreds of commands necessary for the construction of the parts having substantial geometric complexity. The lofted solids are then assembled to form the composite model of Rabaul Caldera, having a geometrically complex loading configuration and distribution of rheologic properties. Comparison between predicted and observed deformation led us to identify multiple deformation sources (0.74MPa change in pressure in the magma chamber and 0.17m slip along the ring fault) responsible for the displacements measured at Matupit Island between August 1992 and August 1993.

Evaluating Topographic Effects on Ground Deformation: Insights from Finite Element Modeling

Ground deformation has been demonstrated to be one of the most common signals of volcanic unrest. Although volcanoes are commonly associated with significant topographic relief, most analytical models assume the Earth’s surface as flat. However, it has been confirmed that this approximation can lead to important misinterpretations of the recorded surface deformation data. Here we perform a systematic and quantitative analysis of how topography may influence ground deformation signals generated by a spherical pressure source embedded in an elastic homogeneous media and how these variations correlate with the different topographic parameters characterizing the terrain form (e.g., slope, aspect, curvature). For this, we bring together the results presented in previous published papers and complement them with new axisymmetric and 3D finite element (FE) model results. First, we study, in a parametric way, the influence of a volcanic edifice centered above the pressure source axis. Second, we carry out new 3D FE models simulating the real topography of three different volcanic areas representative of topographic scenarios common in volcanic regions: Rabaul caldera (Papua New Guinea) and the volcanic islands of Tenerife and El Hierro (Canary Islands). The calculated differences are then correlated with a series of topographic parameters. The final aim is to investigate the artifacts that might arise from the use of half-space models at volcanic areas due to diverse topographic features (e.g., collapse caldera structures, prominent central edifices, large landslide scars).