Erkki Lehto

Population, income and ecological conditions as determinants of forest area variation in the tropics

Abstract The underlying causes of forest area variation were studied by using data from the original forest assessments between 1970 and 1991 of FAO FORIS database representing 477 subnational geographical units in 67 tropical countries. Multiple regression modelling was applied to measure the effects. Five ecological variables were used to control the varying ecological conditions in the subnational units. Three variables were used to control the varying reliability of forest inventory data. Population and income variables were found to be significant factors explaining forest area variation after controlling for ecological variation. In particular population density and income per capita turned out to be significant underlying factors of deforestation. The overall conclusion is that determining the factors behind forest area variation helps explaining the causes of deforestation.

Forest-based Development in Finland — a Unique Success?

Japan, the Republic of Korea, Sweden and Finland are unique among the industrialized countries in the sense that, in these countries, economically sustainable forest management has been achieved at a high level of forest cover. In fact, 59-77% of their land areas are forest covered, while the world average is 27% (FAO 1997).

Rationale of the Book

Tropical deforestation of natural forests was assessed by the FAO as 11 million ha/year in 1980 and as 12 million ha/year in 2000 – 2005. Deforestation has expanded in spite of the multitude of global, international, and national political efforts to decelerate it. Our fundamental question here is why? Why did Finland succeed in stopping deforestation over a century ago, and why is the same not possible in the contemporary tropical countries? In this book we have applied a novel approach in our analyses, which has brought some theory-based fresh findings. We do not compare Finland directly with the tropics but via our integrated theory of forest transition.

Summary of the Book

Tropical deforestation of natural forests was assessed by FAO as 11 million ha/year in 1980 and as 12 million ha/year in 2000–2005. Deforestation has expanded in spite of the multitude of global, international, and national political efforts to decelerate it. Our fundamental question here is why? Why did Finland succeed in stopping deforestation a century ago and why the same not possible in the contemporary tropical countries? In this book we have applied a novel approach in our analyses, which has brought some new theory-based findings. We do not compare Finland directly with the tropics but via our integrated theory of forest transition.

Evolution of Preindustrial Forestry in Finland

The purpose of this chapter is to review preindustrial forestry in Finland by identifying the relevant pre-historical and historical facts via the application of the theory developed in the previous chapter in order to understand the evolution of forestry towards forest transition. Preindustrial forestry in Finland through the end of the 19th century had many similarities with the contemporary tropical countries. Therefore, it has been described in some detail. We have selected the relevant information from the masses of pre-historical and historical data and information by applying our universal system causality model of forest transition. However, the external world was different in Finland then from today in the tropical countries.

Transition to Industrial Forestry in Finland

The purpose of this chapter is to analyze the underlying causes of the historical forest transition in Finland by applying our universal system causality model of forest transition. We have selected the relevant information on Finland from the masses of historical occasions and data by applying this model. Finland had the transition from preindustrial to sustainable industrial forestry during the first half of the twentieth century based firstly on the transitions to de jure and de facto sustained yield forestry, and secondly on the excess of the industrial use to the non-industrial use of roundwood. Unexpectedly, de facto transition to SYF took place a few decades prior to de jure transition. This finding indicates the important role of informal institutions, such as the markets and forest-based development.

Deforestation in the Tropics

The model of forest transition from Chap. 2 is operational both ex ante for deforestation modeling and ex post reforestation modeling. Equally, it appeared relevant both in modeling among the maximum of 74 tropical countries as well as among the 32 sub-national units (states) of Mexico. Chapter 5 is composed of seven different sub-studies, which have various interactions and support of each other. The first section analyzed the roles of corruption and underpricing of stumpage on deforestation theoretically, with empiric data and literature review. The statistically significant role of corruption in increasing deforestation became supported by the modeling 74 tropical countries with seven other independent variables and by the modeling of 64 tropical countries with six other independent variables. Corruption was also significant in the reforestation or plantation forest model.

Private Forestry, Community Forestry, or Socialistic Forestry for Forest Transition?

Public forests cover 86% of the total global forest area. A deduction is drawn that private forests are more effective and efficient in timber production than public forests. The growing stock both in the United States and Finland have been increasing for some decades. It was also discovered earlier that the growing stock in the European forests has been continuously increasing since 1951. Because private forests were dominating in this part of Europe (previous non-Soviet Union), it was inferred that private forestry was oriented towards sustainable forestry and socialistic forestry towards deforestation.

Theory, Method and Data

Our aim in this chapter is to describe the forest transition from preindustrial to industrial forestry, to review the existing theories of forest transition, and to integrate them with the theories of ecological economics, new institutional economics, property rights, public goods, and forest-based development into a universal system causality theory of forest transition. The comparison of a historical transition from deforestation to sustained yield forestry (SYF) in Finland with continuous deforestation in the tropics required relevant theory. Otherwise, the direct comparison of the countries in different development stages, cultures, and ecological conditions would be risky. Therefore, the existing relevant theories are reviewed and an integration of them is made.