Erly Cardoso Teixeira

Impactos dos acordos de liberalização comercial Alca e Mercoeuro sobre os países membros

The objective of this paper is to determine the impacts on the international agricultural market of potential trade liberalization agreements such as Americas Free Trade Area (Afta) and Mercosul and European Union Free Trade Area (Mercoeuro). The general equilibrium model from the Global Trade Analysis Project (Gtap) is applied to run the simulations. The results suggest that Afta increases agricultural production and trade balance for the Mercosul countries, but for manufactures the effects are negative on both production and trade balance. The U.S. and Canada show a small reduction on trade balance. Brazil is the only Mercosul country to obtain welfare gains with Afta. The impacts of Mercoeuro on its member country are similar to those of Afta, but they are greater in magnitude. Also, all countries have welfare gains in the Mercoeuro, which presents greater benefits than Afta to their respective.

Investimentos em infra-estrutura e produtividade total dos fatores na agricultura brasileira: 1985-2004

Infrastructure investments reduced significantly since the decade of 1980, compromising Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and Brazilian agricultural competitivity. Solow’s growth model with panel data is used to estimate TFP. An adaptation of the model of Zhang and Fan (2004) for India, using the Generalized Method of Moments, was applied to verify the effect of infrastructure investments on TFP. Estimations suggest that these investments affect agriculture TFP in the first years and its return occurs in the period of 0 to 2 years. Road investments have the highest impact on TFP, followed by investments on research, telecommunications, irrigation, and electric energy.

Determinantes da adoção da tecnologia de despolpamento na cafeicultura

Objetivou-se, neste trabalho, identificar os determinantes da adocao da tecnologia pos-colheita de despolpamento pelos produtores rurais na atividade cafeeira de Vicosa, MG. Os cafeicultores que despolpam o cafe foram considerados adotantes de tal tecnologia. Aplicou-se o modelo Logit para identificar os determinantes da adocao da despolpa do cafe. Os resultados apresentam as variaveis associativismo, capital proprio, escolaridade, rentabilidade e treinamento como fatores que determinam a adocao da tecnologia de despolpamento, sendo o treinamento e o associativismo os fatores que mais contribuem na adocao---The objective of this paper was to identify some determinants for the adoption of pulping technology by coffee producers in Vicosa, MG. The Logit model has been applied to identify the determinants for the adoption of pulping technology. The results present the variables coop affiliation, own capital stock, years of school, profitability, and training as factors that determine the adoption of pulping technology. Training and coop affiliation are the variables that most contribute for the adoption.

Impactos da integração econômica nas commodities da economia brasileira e da União Européia

The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), a general equilibrium model, is applied to evaluate the effects that a hypothetical free trade agreement between the European Union (EU) and Latin America and the Caribbean would have on the economies of Brazil and the EU. Four scenarios are simulated taking different values for agricultural production subsidies and the common external tariff (CET). All scenarios impose the elimination of exports subsidies. The results indicate that a free trade agreement of the type envisioned by this paper would increase Brazilian economic growth, varying from 3.9% and 6.3%, and EU economic growth, between 0.3% and 1.8%. The benefits of trade liberalization would be concentrated in the economic sectors with the greatest comparative advantage - Brazilian agribusiness and EU manufactures - with trade creation.

Gasto público e crescimento econômico no Brasil: uma análise comparativa dos gastos das esferas de governo

The objective of this paper is to determine which sphere of government – federal, state or municipal – presented greater apacity to influence the Brazilian economic growth with its expenses in the period of 1948 the 1998. It is also intended to determine which category of expense is more productive (CST – Consumption, subsidies and transferences or GT – total Investments of the government). Such objectives are reached with the use of the Feder model (1983), that disaggregates the economy in two sectors. The results indicate that the investment is the expense most relevant and the state sphere the one that presents greater capacity to stimulate the economic growth.

Avaliação de uma política de estabilização de renda para a agricultura familiar

For decades, the Brazilian agriculture sector has suffered strong income transfers to many of the countrys other economic sectors, which caused the impoverishment of many Brazilian farmers. Government sponsored rural credit assistance programs have somewhat redressed this inequity and ameliorated the farmers plight. However, due to the structure of these credit assistance programs, the majority of their benefits have gone to the countrys largest agricultural producers, thereby increasing income disparity found between family and commercial farms. New policies are needed that actually assist the majority of those that work in the Brazilian agriculture sector: the family farmers. This work evaluates effects of implementation of an Income Stabilization Policy (ISP) intended to support family farmers, focusing on cassava, milk, and bean producers. The evaluation is based on the costs and benefits of ISP, with reference to the theory of economic surplus. This article also considers the policys negative effect on the surplus generated by commercial producers. Study results indicate that implementation of the proposed ISP would increase the prices received for cassava, milk and beans, improve the income of Brazilian family farmers producing these products, and lead to consumer gains that more than offset the losses suffered by large, commercial agriculture producers.

Aumento da oferta e redução de impostos nos serviços de infra-estrutura na economia brasileira: uma abordagem de equilíbrio geral

A baixa qualidade da infra-estrutura e a elevada carga tributaria que incide sobre esses setores oneram a utilizacao de seus servicos. O objetivo desta pesquisa e analisar os impactos do aumento na oferta de infra-estrutura e da reducao nos impostos sobre os servicos de infra-estrutura na economia brasileira. Para isso, foi utilizado um Modelo Aplicado de Equilibrio Geral. Essas politicas proporcionariam crescimento da atividade agregada e ganhos de competitividade que levariam ao crescimento das exportacoes; elevacao na remuneracao aos fatores, ocasionando elevacao na renda das familias e nos investimentos; e aumento na receita do governo e no PIB, alem dos ganhos de utilidade pelos consumidores.

Impactos dos encargos sociais na economia brasileira

The objective of this study is to analyze the impacts of a reduction in researched labor costs over some macroeconomic indicators. To do this, a multi-sector applied general equilibrium model was used. Six scenarios were built, including a reduction in social expenditures and increases in labor supply. It is noted that two aliquots had been used (25.10% and 45%) as representative of labor costs in Brazil. In general, the results indicate that the reduction of labor costs, considering the labor cost as 45%, is sufficient to generate new jobs.

Política de estabilização de renda para a agricultura familiar: uma análise de risco

Os produtores familiares foram prejudicados pelas politicas de substituicao de importacoes e de modernizacao da agricultura, sofrendo com elevadas transferencias de renda para fora do setor. Uma forma de ressarci-los seria implementando uma politica de estabilizacao de renda que asseguraria rentabilidade estavel aos produtores. O objetivo deste artigo e determinar os beneficios de uma politica de estabilizacao de renda implementada na agricultura familiar para agricultores e consumidores de arroz, feijao, milho e mandioca, e os custos para agricultores comerciais nesses mercados. Utilizou-se o modelo de Newbery e Stiglitz, que considera a reducao do risco com a politica de estabilizacao de renda. A politica implicaria aumento de receita para produtores familiares. Os beneficios de transferencia superariam os de eficiencia para produtores familiares e consumidores. Os beneficios para a agricultura familiar superariam os custos da agricultura comercial com a politica nos mercados de feijao, mandioca e milho, e os beneficios totais superariam os custos totais nos mercados de feijao e milho, ao contrario ocorreria nos mercados de arroz e mandioca, embora neste fosse pequena a diferenca. Conclui-se que a implementacao da politica seria viavel nos mercados onde a participacao da agricultura familiar fosse maior que a da comercial e naqueles importadores.

Efeito da desvalorização cambial na oferta, no preço de insumos e na relação entre os fatores na cultura do café

The objective of this paper is to analyze the 1999 exchange rate (real/dollar) devaluation impact on coffee and intermediate input prices. Input price increased with exchange rate devaluation, reducing the positive effect of the exchange rate on coffee production, compared with the scenario which did not take the impact on input price into account. Coffee supply increased by 19.75% when the exchange rate devaluation impact on input price was not considered and by 17. 69 % when the devaluation impact on the price of fertilizers and machinery was considered.