Ernesto Salzano

Seismic risk of atmospheric storage tanks in the framework of quantitative risk analysis

Abstract The quantitative risk assessment of industrial facilities is based on integrated procedures to quantify human, environmental and economical losses related to relevant accidents. Accordingly, seismic risk analysis has to be integrated in order to obtain reliable results. In this work, some considerations regarding the intensity and probability of occurrence of earthquakes and the vulnerability of atmospheric storage tanks subjected to seismic actions are given. Structural vulnerability based on observational data has been processed in the form of “probit analysis”, a simple and useful statistic tool. Suggestions concerning industrial seismic-related accidental scenarios are also given.

The development of an inherent safety approach to the prevention of domino accidents

The severity of industrial accidents in which a domino effect takes place is well known in the chemical and process industry. The application of an inherent safety approach for the prevention of escalation events leading to domino accidents was explored in the present study. Reference primary scenarios were analyzed and escalation vectors were defined. Inherent safety distances were defined and proposed as a metric to express the intensity of the escalation vectors. Simple rules of thumb were presented for a preliminary screening of these distances. Swift reference indices for layout screening with respect to escalation hazard were also defined. Two case studies derived from existing layouts of oil refineries were selected to understand the potentialities coming from the application in the methodology. The results evidenced that the approach allows a first comparative assessment of the actual domino hazard in a layout, and the identification of critical primary units with respect to escalation events. The methodology developed also represents a useful screening tool to identify were to dedicate major efforts in the design of add-on measures, optimizing conventional passive and active measures for the prevention of severe domino accidents.

Extending the Quantitative Assessment of Industrial Risks to Earthquake Effects

In the general framework of quantitative methods for natural-technological (NaTech) risk analysis, a specific methodology was developed for assessing risks caused by hazardous substances released due to earthquakes. The contribution of accidental scenarios initiated by seismic events to the overall industrial risk was assessed in three case studies derived from the actual plant layout of existing oil refineries. Several specific vulnerability models for different equipment classes were compared and assessed. The effect of differing structural resistances for process equipment on the final risk results was also investigated. The main factors influencing the final risk values resulted from the models for equipment vulnerability and the assumptions for the reference damage states of the process equipment. The analysis of case studies showed that in seismic zones the additional risk deriving from damage caused by earthquakes may be up to more than one order of magnitude higher than that associated to internal failure causes. Critical equipment was determined to be mainly pressurized tanks, even though atmospheric tanks were more vulnerable to containment loss. Failure of minor process equipment having a limited hold-up of hazardous substances (such as pumps) was shown to have limited influence on the final values of the risk increase caused by earthquakes.

Lessons Learned from Toulouse and Buncefield Disasters: From Risk Analysis Failures to the Identification of Atypical Scenarios Through a Better Knowledge Management

The recent occurrence of severe major accidents has brought to light flaws and limitations of hazard identification (HAZID) processes performed for safety reports, as in the accidents at Toulouse (France) and Buncefield (UK), where the accident scenarios that occurred were not captured by HAZID techniques. This study focuses on this type of atypical accident scenario deviating from normal expectations. The main purpose is to analyze the examples of atypical accidents mentioned and to attempt to identify them through the application of a well-known methodology such as the bow-tie analysis. To these aims, the concept of atypical event is accurately defined. Early warnings, causes, consequences, and occurrence mechanisms of the specific events are widely studied and general failures of risk assessment, management, and governance isolated. These activities contribute to outline a set of targeted recommendations, addressing transversal common deficiencies and also demonstrating how a better management of knowledge from the study of past events can support future risk assessment processes in the identification of atypical accident scenarios. Thus, a new methodology is not suggested; rather, a specific approach coordinating a more effective use of experience and available information is described, to suggest that lessons to be learned from past accidents can be effectively translated into actions of prevention.

Numerical simulation of turbulent gas flames in tubes.

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is an emerging technique to predict possible consequences of gas explosion and it is often considered a powerful and accurate tool to obtain detailed results. However, systematic analyses of the reliability of this approach to real-scale industrial configurations are still needed. Furthermore, few experimental data are available for comparison and validation. In this work, a set of well documented experimental data related to the flame acceleration obtained within obstacle-filled tubes filled with flammable gas-air mixtures, has been simulated. In these experiments, terminal steady flame speeds corresponding to different propagation regimes were observed, thus, allowing a clear and prompt characterisation of the numerical results with respect to numerical parameters, as grid definition, geometrical parameters, as blockage ratio and to mixture parameters, as mixture reactivity. The CFD code AutoReagas was used for the simulations. Numerical predictions were compared with available experimental data and some insights into the code accuracy were determined. Computational results are satisfactory for the relatively slower turbulent deflagration regimes and became fair when choking regime is observed, whereas transition to quasi-detonation or Chapman-Jogouet (CJ) were never predicted.

Risk assessment and early warning systems for industrial facilities in seismic zones

Abstract Industrial equipments and systems can suffer structural damage when hit by earthquakes, so that accidental scenarios as fire, explosion and dispersion of toxic substances can take place. As a result, overall damage to people, environment and properties increases. The present paper deals with seismic risk analysis of industrial facilities where atmospheric storage tanks (anchored or unanchored to ground), horizontal pressurised tanks, reactors and pumps are installed. Simplified procedures and methodologies based on historical database and literature data on natural-technological (Na-Tech) accidents for seismic risk assessment are discussed. Equipment-specific fragility curves have been thus derived depending on a single earthquake measure, peak ground acceleration (PGA). Fragility parameters have been then transformed to linear probit coefficients in order to obtain reliable threshold values for earthquake intensity measure, both for structural damage and loss of containment. These threshold values are of great interest when development of active and passive mitigation actions and systems, safety management, and the implementation of early warning system are concerned. The approach is general and can be implemented in any available code or procedure for risk assessment. Some results of seismic analysis of atmospheric storage tanks are also presented for validation.

Venting of gas explosion through relief ducts: Interaction between internal and external explosions

Relief ducts fitted to venting openings is a widespread configuration in the industrial practice. The presence of a duct has been reported to severely increase the violence of the vented explosion posing a problem for the proper design of the venting device. Several studies have reported the leading importance--in the whole complex explosion phenomenology--of a secondary explosion in the duct. Modern approaches in the study of simply vented explosions (without ducts) have focused on the study of the interaction between internal and external explosion as a key issue in the mechanisms of pressure generation. The issue is even more relevant when a duct is fitted to the vent due the confined nature of the external explosion. In this work the interaction between internal and external events is experimentally investigated for gas explosions vented through a relief duct. The work has aimed at studying mechanisms underlying the pressure rise of this venting configuration. The study has put the emphasis on the mutual nature of the interaction. A larger scale than laboratory has been investigated allowing drawing results with a greater degree of generality with respect to data so far presented in literature.

Numerical simulation of gas explosions in linked vessels

The ability of the CFD code AutoReaGas to simulate a gas explosion in two linked vessels was investigated. These explosions present an anomalous destructive power because both peak pressures and rates of pressure rise are much higher than those generated in single vessel explosions. A fair agreement was observed between the computed results and experimental data taken from literature. Moreover, the computed values of the turbulence intensity at varying diameters of the connecting pipe demonstrate that turbulence induced in both vessels represent a major factor affecting the explosion violence.

The analysis of domino accidents triggered by vapor cloud explosions

Domino effect is a well-known cause of severe accidents in the chemical and process industry. Several studies pointed out that the more critical step in the quantitative assessment of domino hazards is the availability of reliable models to estimate the possibility and probability of the escalation of primary accidents. This work focused on the revision of available models for the quantitative estimation of damage probability to plant equipment caused by pressure waves generated by a primary accident. Available data on damages to process equipment caused by pressure waves were analyzed. Several specific probit functions for different elements of process equipment were obtained from the analysis of failure data. The analysis of blast wave propagation in different types of explosions allowed the estimation of the expected damage probability as a function of distance from the explosion center and of explosion strength. The results obtained were used to assess safety distance criteria and to evaluate the contribution to individual risk of domino effect due to pressure waves.

Seismic vulnerability of natural gas pipelines

Abstract This work deals with the analysis of the interaction of earthquakes with pipelines transporting and distributing natural gas for industrial and civil use. To this aim, a new large data-set of seismic information classified on the basis of selected seismological, geotechnical and structural parameters is presented and analyzed. Particular attention is devoted to continuous pipelines under strong ground shaking, which is the geotechnical effect due to passage of waves in soil. Results are provided in terms of the likelihood of the loss of containment with respect to Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), a seismic intensity parameter which may be easily retrieved either from local authorities and public databases or from site dependent hazard analysis. Fragility functions and seismic intensity threshold values for the failure and for the loss of containment of gas from pipeline systems are also given. The obtained functions can be easily implemented in existing codes and guidelines for industrial risk assessment, land-use planning, and for the design of public distribution network, with specific reference to Natural—Technological interaction (Na-Tech).