Ernst van der Maaten

Climate change and European forests: What do we know, what are the uncertainties, and what are the implications for forest management?

The knowledge about potential climate change impacts on forests is continuously expanding and some changes in growth, drought induced mortality and species distribution have been observed. However despite a significant body of research, a knowledge and communication gap exists between scientists and non-scientists as to how climate change impact scenarios can be interpreted and what they imply for European forests. It is still challenging to advise forest decision makers on how best to plan for climate change as many uncertainties and unknowns remain and it is difficult to communicate these to practitioners and other decision makers while retaining emphasis on the importance of planning for adaptation. In this paper, recent developments in climate change observations and projections, observed and projected impacts on European forests and the associated uncertainties are reviewed and synthesised with a view to understanding the implications for forest management. Current impact assessments with simulation models contain several simplifications, which explain the discrepancy between results of many simulation studies and the rapidly increasing body of evidence about already observed changes in forest productivity and species distribution. In simulation models uncertainties tend to cascade onto one another; from estimating what future societies will be like and general circulation models (GCMs) at the global level, down to forest models and forest management at the local level. Individual climate change impact studies should not be uncritically used for decision-making without reflection on possible shortcomings in system understanding, model accuracy and other assumptions made. It is important for decision makers in forest management to realise that they have to take long-lasting management decisions while uncertainty about climate change impacts are still large. We discuss how to communicate about uncertainty - which is imperative for decision making - without diluting the overall message. Considering the range of possible trends and uncertainties in adaptive forest management requires expert knowledge and enhanced efforts for providing science-based decision support.

Climate change impacts in European forests: the expert views of local observers

Forests respond differently to changes in climate depending on individual site characteristics and tree status. Site conditions may buffer or boost impacts of heat, drought, and storm events. Considering contemporary changes in climate (Christensen et al. 2007), warming may increase forest productivity in those parts of Europe where growth resources like soil water are not limiting (Nabuurs et al. 2002). However, under conditions of limited resource supply and changed disturbance regime, we may expect a reduction of forest productivity and vitality (Lindner et al. 2010). Major climatic impacts on forests include both singular extreme events (changing climate variability) that are difficult to predict in time and location, as well as less obvious gradual changes (changing mean values) (Bolte et al. 2010; Reyer et al. 2013). This study presents an analysis of the diverse aspects of climate change impacts on forests in Europe based on the expert views of local observers. Local expert knowledge provides additional (often overlooked) information on climate change impacts and fills knowledge gaps for less-described European regions. Furthermore, we used expert knowledge to highlight a set of priorities for pro- and reactive forest management, taking into account differences and similarities among regions. Finally, we wanted to define “hot spots” of climate change impacts, i.e., regions, or selected tree species/stands in these regions, which are highly vulnerable and considerably exposed to negative impacts of climate change.

Climate sensitivity of radial growth in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) at different aspects in southwestern Germany

The climate sensitivity of radial growth in European beech (Fagussylvatica L.) was analyzed within a narrow valley in the Swabian Alb (southwestern Germany). We collected stem disks from three aspects (NE, NW and SW) of trees belonging to different social classes. Common climatic factors limiting growth across the valley were identified using a principal component analysis (PCA). Further, we performed hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), redundancy analysis (RDA) and bootstrapped correlation analysis to reveal differences in chronologies and climate-growth relationships between aspect and social class. Climatic variables considered in our analyses were monthly and seasonal data on temperature and precipitation, as well as a self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI). We identified drought in the period June–August as the most prominent factor limiting growth across the valley. Dominant and co-dominant trees at the NW and SW aspects were found to be particularly drought sensitive, whereas intermediate trees were less susceptible to drought. Underlying causes of established climate–growth relationships are discussed in the context of drought susceptibility, tree-size modulation and tree physiological processes.

Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?

Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.

Tuning the Voices of a Choir: Detecting Ecological Gradients in Time-Series Populations.

This paper introduces a new approach–the Principal Component Gradient Analysis (PCGA)–to detect ecological gradients in time-series populations, i.e. several time-series originating from different individuals of a population. Detection of ecological gradients is of particular importance when dealing with time-series from heterogeneous populations which express differing trends. PCGA makes use of polar coordinates of loadings from the first two axes obtained by principal component analysis (PCA) to define groups of similar trends. Based on the mean inter-series correlation (rbar) the gain of increasing a common underlying signal by PCGA groups is quantified using Monte Carlo Simulations. In terms of validation PCGA is compared to three other existing approaches. Focusing on dendrochronological examples, PCGA is shown to correctly determine population gradients and in particular cases to be advantageous over other considered methods. Furthermore, PCGA groups in each example allowed for enhancing the strength of a common underlying signal and comparably well as hierarchical cluster analysis. Our results indicate that PCGA potentially allows for a better understanding of mechanisms causing time-series population gradients as well as objectively enhancing the performance of climate transfer functions in dendroclimatology. While our examples highlight the relevance of PCGA to the field of dendrochronology, we believe that also other disciplines working with data of comparable structure may benefit from PCGA.

Meteorological Drivers of Extremes in Daily Stem Radius Variations of Beech, Oak, and Pine in Northeastern Germany: An Event Coincidence Analysis

Observed recent and expected future increases in frequency and intensity of climatic extremes in central Europe may pose critical challenges for domestic tree species. Continuous dendrometer recordings provide a valuable source of information on tree stem radius variations, offering the possibility to study a trees response to environmental influences at a high temporal resolution. In this study, we analyze stem radius variations (SRV) of three domestic tree species (beech, oak, and pine) from 2012 to 2014. We use the novel statistical approach of event coincidence analysis (ECA) to investigate the simultaneous occurrence of extreme daily weather conditions and extreme SRVs, where extremes are defined with respect to the common values at a given phase of the annual growth period. Besides defining extreme events based on individual meteorological variables, we additionally introduce conditional and joint ECA as new multivariate extensions of the original methodology and apply them for testing 105 different combinations of variables regarding their impact on SRV extremes. Our results reveal a strong susceptibility of all three species to the extremes of several meteorological variables. Yet, the inter-species differences regarding their response to the meteorological extremes are comparatively low. The obtained results provide a thorough extension of previous correlation-based studies by emphasizing on the timings of climatic extremes only. We suggest that the employed methodological approach should be further promoted in forest research regarding the investigation of tree responses to changing environmental conditions.

Species distribution models predict temporal but not spatial variation in forest growth

Abstract Bioclimate envelope models have been widely used to illustrate the discrepancy between current species distributions and their potential habitat under climate change. However, the realism and correct interpretation of such projections has been the subject of considerable discussion. Here, we investigate whether climate suitability predictions correlate to tree growth, measured in permanent inventory plots and inferred from tree‐ring records. We use the ensemble classifier RandomForest and species occurrence data from ~200,000 inventory plots to build species distribution models for four important European forestry species: Norway spruce, Scots pine, European beech, and pedunculate oak. We then correlate climate‐based habitat suitability with volume measurements from ~50‐year‐old stands, available from ~11,000 inventory plots. Secondly, habitat projections based on annual historical climate are compared with ring width from ~300 tree‐ring chronologies. Our working hypothesis is that habitat suitability projections from species distribution models should to some degree be associated with temporal or spatial variation in these growth records. We find that the habitat projections are uncorrelated with spatial growth records (inventory plot data), but they do predict interannual variation in tree‐ring width, with an average correlation of .22. Correlation coefficients for individual chronologies range from values as high as .82 or as low as −.31. We conclude that tree responses to projected climate change are highly site‐specific and that local suitability of a species for reforestation is difficult to predict. That said, projected increase or decrease in climatic suitability may be interpreted as an average expectation of increased or reduced growth over larger geographic scales.

Common trends in elements? Within- and between-tree variations of wood-chemistry measured by X-ray fluorescence — A dendrochemical study

Element composition of annually resolved tree-rings constitutes a promising biological proxy for reconstructions of environmental conditions and pollution history. However, several methodological and physiological issues have to be addressed before sound conclusions can be drawn from dendrochemical time series. For example, radial and vertical translocation processes of elements in the wood might blur or obscure any dendrochemical signal. In this study, we tested the degree of synchronism of elemental time series within and between trees of one coniferous (Pinus sylvestris L.) and one broadleaf (Castanea sativa Mill.) species growing in conventionally managed forests without direct pollution sources in their surroundings. Micro X-ray fluorescence (μXRF) analysis was used to establish time series of relative concentrations of multiple elements (Mg, Al, P, Cl, K, Ca, Cr, Mn, Fe and Ni) for different stem heights and stem exposures. We found a common long-term (decadal) trend for most elements in both species, but only little coherence in the high frequency domain (inter-annual variations). Aligning the element curves by cambial age instead of year of ring formation reduced the standard deviations between the single measurements. This points at an influence of age on longer term trends and would require a detrending in order to extract any environmental signal from dendrochemical time series. The common signal was stronger for pine than for chestnut. In pine, many elements show a concentration gradient with higher values towards the tree crown. Mobility of elements in the stem leading to high within- and between-tree variability, as well as a potential age-trend apparently complicate the establishment of reliable dendrochemical chronologies. For future wood-chemical studies, we recommend to work with element ratios instead of single element time series, to consider potential age trends and to analyze more than one sample per tree to account for internal variability.

Tapping the tree-ring archive for studying effects of resin extraction on the growth and climate sensitivity of Scots pine

BackgroundIn the German Democratic Republic (GDR), resin tapping in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests was a major economic activity, and resin-tapped stands are frequently found up until this day. In this study, we investigate how the mechanical damage caused by resin tapping affects the growth and climate sensitivity of Scots pine using a dendroecological approach.MethodsTree-ring samples were collected from resin-tapped and non-tapped trees in two forest areas in northeastern Germany, and tree-growth patterns were analyzed. For elucidating effects of resin tapping on the climate sensitivity of pine growth, climate-growth relationships and pointer years were studied.ResultsWe observed that resin tapping positively affects tree growth at breast height, likely as wood formation is concentrated on the living part of the bole (i.e. after tapping there is no growth taking place on the tapping face due to the mechanical damage done to the cambium). We observed no differences in the climate sensitivity of tapped and non-tapped trees, nor in the occurrence of extreme growth responses.ConclusionOur results highlight that resin extraction is, apart from inflicting mechanical damage, not altering the sensitivity of Scots pine growth to climatic conditions.

Distinct growth phenology but similar daily stem dynamics in three co-occurring broadleaved tree species

Dendrometers offer a useful tool for long-term, high-resolution monitoring of tree responses to environmental fluctuations and climate change. Here, we analyze a 4-year dendrometer dataset (2014-17) on European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), common hornbeam (Carpinus betulus L.) and pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.), co-occuring in a mixed broadleaved forest in northeastern Germany. In our analyses, we focus both on seasonal growth dynamics as well as on the environmental forcing of daily stem-size variations. Over the study period with contrasting weather conditions, we observed species- and year-specific differences in growth phenology (i.e., growth onset, cessation and duration). Oak was characterized by early growth onset and long growth duration in all years as compared with beech and hornbeam. The analysis on the environmental forcing of daily stem dynamics revealed, however, highly similar responses for the studied species, with current-day vapor pressure deficit and sunshine duration negatively, and relative humidity and precipitation positively affecting stem size. When considering lagged effects, environmental conditions often oppositely affected stem-size changes. No consistent seasonality in environmental responses was detected, though specific weather conditions were found to affect temporal patterns in individual years. We suggest that the high similarity in environmental forcing observed between tree species can be explained by daily stem-size changes mainly reflecting tree water status rather than tree growth. Our results stress that correcting dendrometer series for reversible stem hydrological changes is of utmost importance to better quantify tree growth from dendrometers in future.