Errol Noel

Predicting Dwell Time by Bus Stop Type and Time of the Day

Bus dwell time (DT), which is defined as the time interval between the opening and closing its doors to serve passengers at the bus stop, is an important element in improving the travel time between end terminals of bus routes. DT on bus routes in dense urban areas varies by time of day. Also, DT could be measured or estimated using mathematical models. This study aimed at developing innovative DT models for bus stops located in dense urban areas taking in consideration the bus stop type (located near intersections and at mid-blocks), and by time of the day (morning, mid-day and evening). The models were developed using simple ordinary least squares methods with all statistical inferences at 95% confidence interval. The results of the data analysis showed that DT, on average, was higher at bus stops near intersections than those at mid-blocks. The models obtained for DT were determined to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level, based on the R2, F-Statistic and model validation tests. The Kolmogorov-Smirnoff, normal probability and residual plots were used to confirm the adequacy of the models. The analysis also revealed that the models were significantly different by time of day and by bus stop type. It should also be noted that the models were based on bus transit operation in a dense urban area and may not be appropriate for predicting DT in non-similar settings.