Ersen B. Colkesen

Systematic Review of Guidelines on Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: Which Recommendations Should Clinicians Follow for a Cardiovascular Health Check?

OBJECTIVE To appraise guidelines on cardiovascular risk assessment to guide selection of screening interventions for a health check. DATA SOURCES Guidelines in the English language published between January 1, 2003, and May 2, 2009, were retrieved using MEDLINE and CINAHL. This was supplemented by searching the National Guideline Clearinghouse, National Library for Health, Canadian Medical Association Infobase, and G-I-N International Guideline Library. STUDY SELECTION We included guidelines developed on behalf of professional organizations from Western countries, containing recommendations on cardiovascular risk assessment for the apparently healthy population. Titles and abstracts were assessed by 2 independent reviewers. Of 1984 titles identified, 27 guidelines met our criteria. DATA EXTRACTION Rigor of guideline development was assessed by 2 independent reviewers. One reviewer extracted information on conflicts of interest and recommendations. RESULTS Sixteen of 27 guidelines reported conflicts of interest and 17 showed considerable rigor. These included recommendations on assessment of total cardiovascular risk (7 guidelines), dyslipidemia (2), hypertension (2), and dysglycemia (7). Recommendations on total cardiovascular risk and dyslipidemia included prediction models integrating multiple risk factors, whereas remaining recommendations were focused on single risk factors. No consensus was found on recommended target populations, treatment thresholds, and screening tests. CONCLUSIONS Differences among the guidelines imply important variation in allocation of preventive interventions. To make informed decisions, physicians should use only the recommendations from rigorously developed guidelines.

Systematic review of guidelines on imaging of asymptomatic coronary artery disease.

OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study was to critically appraise guidelines on imaging of asymptomatic coronary artery disease (CAD). BACKGROUND Various imaging tests exist to detect CAD in asymptomatic persons. Because randomized controlled trials are lacking, guidelines that address the use of CAD imaging tests may disagree. METHODS Guidelines in English published between January 1, 2003, and February 26, 2010, were retrieved using MEDLINE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, the National Guideline Clearinghouse, the National Library for Health, the Canadian Medication Association Infobase, and the Guidelines International Network International Guideline Library. Guidelines developed by national and international medical societies from Western countries, containing recommendations on imaging of asymptomatic CAD were included. Rigor of development was scored by 2 independent reviewers using the Appraisal of Guidelines Research and Evaluation (AGREE) instrument. One reviewer performed full extraction of recommendations, which was checked by a second reviewer. RESULTS Of 2,415 titles identified, 14 guidelines met our inclusion criteria. Eleven of 14 guidelines reported relationship with industry. The AGREE scores varied across guidelines from 21% to 93%. Two guidelines considered cost effectiveness. Eight guidelines recommended against or found insufficient evidence for testing of asymptomatic CAD. The other 6 guidelines recommended imaging patients at intermediate or high CAD risk based on the Framingham risk score, and 5 considered computed tomography calcium scoring useful for this purpose. CONCLUSIONS Guidelines on risk assessment by imaging of asymptomatic CAD contain conflicting recommendations. More research, including randomized controlled trials, evaluating the impact of imaging on clinical outcomes and costs is needed.

Systematic review of guidelines on abdominal aortic aneurysm screening

OBJECTIVE Usually, physicians base their practice on guidelines, but recommendations on the same topic may vary across guidelines. Given the uncertainties regarding abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening, physicians should be able to identify systematically and transparently developed recommendations. We performed a systematic review of AAA screening guidelines to assist physicians in their choice of recommendations. METHODS Guidelines in English published between January 1, 2003 and February 26, 2010 were retrieved using MEDLINE, CINAHL, the National Guideline Clearinghouse, the National Library for Health, the Canadian Medication Association Infobase, and the G-I-N International Guideline Library. Guidelines developed by national and international medical societies from Western countries, containing recommendations on AAA screening were included. Three reviewers independently assessed rigor of guideline development using the Appraisal of Guidelines Research and Evaluation (AGREE) instrument. Two independent reviewers performed extraction of recommendations. RESULTS Of 2415 titles identified, seven guidelines were included in this review. Three guidelines were less rigorously developed based on AGREE scores below 40%. All seven guidelines contained a recommendation for one-time screening of elderly men by ultrasonography to select AAAs ≥ 5.5 cm for elective surgical repair. Four guidelines, of which three were less rigorously developed, contained disparate recommendations on screening of women and middle-aged men at elevated risk. There was no agreement on the management of smaller AAAs. CONCLUSIONS Consensus exists across guidelines on one-time screening of elderly men to detect and treat AAAs ≥ 5.5 cm. For other target groups and management of small AAAs, prediction models and cost-effectiveness analyses are needed to provide guidance.

Systematic Review of Guidelines on Peripheral Artery Disease Screening

BACKGROUND Peripheral artery disease (PAD) screening may be performed to prevent progression of PAD or future cardiovascular disease in general. Recommendations for PAD screening have to be derived indirectly because no randomized trials comparing screening versus no screening have been performed. We performed a systematic review of guidelines to evaluate the value of PAD screening in asymptomatic adults. METHODS Guidelines in English published between January 1, 2003 and January 20, 2011 were retrieved using MEDLINE, CINAHL, the National Guideline Clearinghouse, the National Library for Health, the Canadian Medication Association Infobase, and the G-I-N International Guideline Library. Guidelines developed by national and international medical societies from Western countries, containing recommendations on PAD screening, were included. Two reviewers independently assessed rigor of guideline development using the Appraisal of Guidelines Research and Evaluation (AGREE) instrument. One reviewer performed full extraction of recommendations, which was validated by a second reviewer. RESULTS Of 2779 titles identified, 8 guidelines were included. AGREE scores varied from 33% to 81%. Five guidelines advocated PAD screening, others found insufficient evidence for PAD screening or were against it. Measurement of the ankle-brachial index (ABI) was generally recommended for middle-aged populations with elevated cardiovascular risk levels. Those identified as having PAD are reclassified as high risk, warranting intensive preventive interventions to reduce their risk of a cardiovascular event. The underlying evidence mainly consisted of studies performed in patients with established PAD. A meta-analysis that evaluated ABI testing in the context of traditional cardiovascular risk assessment was interpreted differently. CONCLUSIONS Recommendations on PAD screening vary across current guidelines, making the value of PAD screening uncertain. The variation seems to reflect lack of studies that show added value of detection of early PAD beyond expectant management and traditional risk assessment.

Effects on cardiovascular disease risk of a web-based health risk assessment with tailored health advice: A follow-up study

Introduction: A large proportion of the cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden can potentially be prevented by primary prevention programs addressing major causal risk factors. A Web-based health risk assessment (HRA) with tailored feedback for individual health promotion is a promising strategy. We evaluated the effect on CVD risk of such a program among employees of a Dutch worksite. Methods: We conducted a prospective follow-up study among 368 employees who voluntarily participated in a Web-based HRA program at a single Dutch worksite in 2008. The program included a multicomponent HRA through a Web-based electronic questionnaire, biometrics, and laboratory evaluation. The results were combined with health behavior change theory to generate tailored motivational and educational health advice. On request, a health counseling session with the program physician was available. Follow-up data on CVD risk were collected 1 year after initial participation. The primary outcome was a change in Framingham CVD risk at 6 months relative to baseline. We checked for a possible background effect of an increased health consciousness as a consequence of program introduction at the worksite by comparing baseline measurements of early program participants with baseline measurements of participants who completed the program 6 months later. Results: A total of 176 employees completed follow-up measurements after a mean of 7 months. There was a graded relation between CVD risk changes and baseline risk, with a relative reduction of 17.9% (P = 0.001) in the high-risk category (baseline CVD risk ≥20%). Changes were not explained by additional health counseling, medication, or an increase in health consciousness within the company. Conclusions: Voluntary participation in a Web-based HRA with tailored feedback at the worksite reduced CVD risk by nearly 18% among participants at high CVD risk and by nearly 5% among all participants. Web-based HRA could improve CVD risk in similar populations. Future research should focus on the persistence of the effects underlying the CVD risk reduction.

Initiation of health-behaviour change among employees participating in a web-based health risk assessment with tailored feedback

BackgroundPrimary prevention programs at the worksite can improve employee health and reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease. Programs that include a web-based health risk assessment (HRA) with tailored feedback hold the advantage of simultaneously increasing awareness of risk and enhancing initiation of health-behaviour change. In this study we evaluated initial health-behaviour change among employees who voluntarily participated in such a HRA program.MethodsWe conducted a questionnaire survey among 2289 employees who voluntarily participated in a HRA program at seven Dutch worksites between 2007 and 2009. The HRA included a web-based questionnaire, biometric measurements, laboratory evaluation, and tailored feedback. The survey questionnaire assessed initial self-reported health-behaviour change and satisfaction with the web-based HRA, and was e-mailed four weeks after employees completed the HRA.ResultsResponse was received from 638 (28%) employees. Of all, 86% rated the program as positive, 74% recommended it to others, and 58% reported to have initiated overall health-behaviour change. Compared with employees at low CVD risk, those at high risk more often reported to have increased physical activity (OR 3.36, 95% CI 1.52-7.45). Obese employees more frequently reported to have increased physical activity (OR 3.35, 95% CI 1.72-6.54) and improved diet (OR 3.38, 95% CI 1.50-7.60). Being satisfied with the HRA program in general was associated with more frequent self-reported initiation of overall health-behaviour change (OR 2.77, 95% CI 1.73-4.44), increased physical activity (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.06-3.39), and improved diet (OR 2.89, 95% CI 1.61-5.17).ConclusionsMore than half of the employees who voluntarily participated in a web-based HRA with tailored feedback, reported to have initiated health-behaviour change. Self-reported initiation of health-behaviour change was more frequent among those at high CVD risk and BMI levels. In general employees reported to be satisfied with the HRA, which was also positively associated with initiation of health-behaviour change. These findings indicate that among voluntary participating employees a web-based HRA with tailored feedback may motivate those in greatest need of health-behaviour change and may be a valuable component of workplace health promotion programs.

Estimated 10-year cardiovascular mortality seriously underestimates overall cardiovascular risk

Objective The European Society of Cardiologys prevention guideline suggests that the risk of total (fatal plus non-fatal) cardiovascular disease (CVD) may be calculated from the risk of CVD mortality using a fixed multiplier (3×). However, the proposed multiplier has not been validated. We investigated the ratio of total CVD to CVD mortality in a large population-based cohort. Methods CVD mortality and total CVD (fatal plus non-fatal CVD requiring hospitalisation) were analysed using Kaplan-Meier estimates among 24 014 men and women aged 39–79 years without baseline CVD or diabetes mellitus in the prospective population-based European Prospective Investigation of Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk cohort. CVD outcomes included death and hospitalisations for ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease or aortic aneurysm. The main study outcome was the ratio of 10-year total CVD to 10-year CVD mortality stratified by age and sex. Results Ten year CVD mortality was 3.9% (900 CVD deaths, 95% CI 3.6% to 4.1%); the rate of total CVD outcomes was 21.2% (4978 fatal or non-fatal CVD outcomes, 95% CI 20.7% to 21.8%). The overall ratio of total CVD to CVD mortality was 5.4. However, we found major differences in this ratio when stratified by gender and age. In young women (39–50 years), the ratio of total CVD to CVD mortality was 28.5, in young men (39–50 years) 11.7. In the oldest age group, these ratios were considerably lower (3.2 in women and 2.4 in men aged 75–79 years). Conclusions The relationship between 10-year total CVD and CVD mortality is dependent on age and sex, and cannot be estimated using a fixed multiplier. Using CVD mortality to estimate total CVD risk leads to serious underestimation of risk, particularly in younger age groups, and particularly in women.

Validation of a model to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD: the rotterdam ischemic heart disease and stroke computer simulation (RISC) model

BackgroundWe developed a Monte Carlo Markov model designed to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD. Internal, predictive, and external validity of the model have not yet been established.MethodsThe Rotterdam Ischemic Heart Disease and Stroke Computer Simulation (RISC) model was developed using data covering 5 years of follow-up from the Rotterdam Study. To prove 1) internal and 2) predictive validity, the incidences of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, CVD death, and non-CVD death simulated by the model over a 13-year period were compared with those recorded for 3,478 participants in the Rotterdam Study with at least 13 years of follow-up. 3) External validity was verified using 10 years of follow-up data from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study of 25,492 participants, for whom CVD and non-CVD mortality was compared.ResultsAt year 5, the observed incidences (with simulated incidences in brackets) of CHD, stroke, and CVD and non-CVD mortality for the 3,478 Rotterdam Study participants were 5.30% (4.68%), 3.60% (3.23%), 4.70% (4.80%), and 7.50% (7.96%), respectively. At year 13, these percentages were 10.60% (10.91%), 9.90% (9.13%), 14.20% (15.12%), and 24.30% (23.42%). After recalibrating the model for the EPIC-Norfolk population, the 10-year observed (simulated) incidences of CVD and non-CVD mortality were 3.70% (4.95%) and 6.50% (6.29%). All observed incidences fell well within the 95% credibility intervals of the simulated incidences.ConclusionsWe have confirmed the internal, predictive, and external validity of the RISC model. These findings provide a basis for analyzing the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease risk factors on the burden of CVD with the RISC model.

Evaluation of End-User Satisfaction Among Employees Participating in a Web-based Health Risk Assessment With Tailored Feedback

Background Web technology is increasingly being used to provide individuals with health risk assessments (HRAs) with tailored feedback. End-user satisfaction is an important determinant of the potential impact of HRAs, as this influences program attrition and adherence to behavioral advice. Objective The aim of this study was to evaluate end-user satisfaction with a web-based HRA with tailored feedback applied in worksite settings, using mixed (quantitative and qualitative) methods. Methods Employees of seven companies in the Netherlands participated in a commercial, web-based, HRA with tailored feedback. The HRA consisted of four components: 1) a health and lifestyle assessment questionnaire, 2) a biometric evaluation, 3) a laboratory evaluation, and 4) tailored feedback consisting of a personal health risk profile and lifestyle behavior advice communicated through a web portal. HRA respondents received an evaluation questionnaire after six weeks. Satisfaction with different parts of the HRA was measured on 5-point Likert scales. A free-text field provided the opportunity to make additional comments. Results In total, 2289 employees participated in the HRA program, of which 637 (27.8%) completed the evaluation questionnaire. Quantitative analysis showed that 85.6% of the respondents evaluated the overall HRA positively. The free-text field was filled in by 29.7 % of the respondents (189 out of 637), who made 315 separate remarks. Qualitative evaluation of these data showed that these respondents made critical remarks. Respondents felt restricted by the answer categories of the health and lifestyle assessment questionnaire, which resulted in the feeling that the corresponding feedback could be inadequate. Some respondents perceived the personal risk profile as unnecessarily alarming or suggested providing more explanations, reference values, and a justification of the behavioral advice given. Respondents also requested the opportunity to discuss the feedback with a health professional. Conclusions Most people were satisfied with the web-based HRA with tailored feedback. Sources of dissatisfaction were limited opportunities for providing additional health information outside of the predefined health and lifestyle assessment questionnaire and insufficient transparency on the generation of the feedback. Information regarding the aim and content of the HRA should be clear and accurate to prevent unrealistic expectations among end-users. Involving trusted health professionals in the implementation of web-based HRAs may enhance the use of and confidence in the HRA.

The Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) in a large UK population: 10-year follow-up in the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population study

Background The European Society of Cardiology endorses cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification using the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm, with separate algorithms for high-risk and low-risk countries. In the 2012 European Guidelines on CVD Prevention in Clinical Practice, the UK has been reclassified as a low-risk country. However, the performance of the SCORE algorithm has not been validated in the UK. Design We compared CVD mortality as predicted by SCORE with the observed CVD mortality in the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) prospective population study, a cohort representative of the general population. Methods Individuals without known CVD or diabetes mellitus, aged 39–65 years at baseline, were included in our analysis. CVD mortality was defined as death due to ischaemic heart disease, cardiac failure, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease and aortic aneurysm. Predicted CVD mortality was calculated at baseline using the SCORE high-risk and low-risk algorithms. Results A total of 15,171 individuals (57.1% female) with a mean age of 53.9 (SD 6.2) years were included. Predicted CVD mortality was 2.85% (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.80–2.90) with the SCORE high-risk algorithm and 1.55% (95% CI 1.52–1.58) with the low-risk algorithm. The observed 10-year CVD mortality was 1.25% (95% CI 1.08–1.44). Similar results were observed across sex and age subgroups. Conclusion In the large EPIC-Norfolk cohort representative of the UK population, the SCORE low-risk algorithm performed better than the high-risk algorithm in predicting 10-year CVD mortality. Our findings indicate that the UK has been correctly reclassified as a low-risk country.