Erwin Corong

Doha scenarios, trade reforms, and poverty in the Philippines : a CGE analysis

Since the early 1980s, the Philippines have undertaken substantial trade reform. The current Doha round of WTO negotiations is now likely to bring further reform and shocks to world import and export prices and world export demand. The impact of all these developments on the poor is not very clear and is the subject of very intense debate. A detailed economy-wide CGE model is used to run a series of policy experiments. Poverty is found to increase slightly with the implementation of the Doha scenario. These effects are focused primarily among rural households in the wake of falling world prices and demand for Philippines agricultural exports. The impacts of full liberalization involving free world trade and complete domestic liberalization are found to depend strongly on the mechanism the government adopts to offset forgone tariff revenue. If an indirect tax is used, the incidence of poverty falls marginally, but the depth (poverty gap) and severity (squared poverty gap) increase substantially. If, instead, an income tax is used, all measures of poverty increase. In both cases, full liberalization favors urban households, as exports, which are primarily non-agricultural, expand. In separate simulations, we discover that free world trade is poverty reducing and favors rural households, whereas domestic liberalization is poverty-increasing and favors urban households. Under free world trade, rural households benefit from increasing world agricultural export prices and demand. The anti-rural bias of domestic liberalization stems from the fact that import prices fall more for agricultural goods than for industrial goods, as initial import-weighted average tariffs rates are higher for the former. In conclusion, the current Doha agreement appears likely to slightly increase poverty, especially in rural areas and among the unemployed, self-employed and rural low-educated. The Philippines is found to have an interest in pushing for more ambitious world trade liberalization, as free world trade holds out promise for reducing poverty.

Tariff Reductions, Carbon Emissions, and Poverty: An Economy-wide Assessment of the Philippines

This study investigates the potential impact of a carbon tax on the economy of the Philippines and on the livelihood of its people. It focuses on the interaction between such a tax and the countrys ongoing trade liberalization programme. With energy use on the rise in the Philippines, increases in greenhouse gas emissions are almost inevitable. The policy most widely recommended by economists —a carbon tax —may be an efficient way to deal with the problem, but there is concern about its distributional effects. The study finds that a carbon tax would compensate for any tariff revenues lost through a reduction in trade tariffs. It also finds that the tax would reduce poverty and increase peoples welfare. Imposing a carbon tax during the ongoing trade liberalization process —provided the carbon tax is used to reduce income taxes —is a sensible approach that could meet the countrys economic, environmental and equity objectives.

Rice Land Designation Policy in Vietnam and the Implications of Policy Reform for Food Security and Economic Welfare

Abstract With the aim of promoting national food security, the Vietnamese government enforces the designation of around 35 per cent of agricultural land strictly for paddy rice cultivation. We investigate the economic effects of adjusting this policy, using an economy-wide model of Vietnam with detailed modelling of region-specific land use, agricultural activity, poverty and food security measures. Our results show that the removal of the rice land designation policy increases real private consumption by an average of 0.35 per cent per annum over 2011–2030, while also reducing poverty, improving food security and contributing to more nutritionally balanced diets among Vietnamese households.

Agriculture-Sector Policies and Poverty in the Philippines: A Computable General-Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis

The Philippines has undertaken substantial trade-policy reforms since the 1980s. However, the poverty impact is not very clear and has been the subject of intense debate, most crucial of which is the likely poverty effects of liberalizing the highly protected agricultural sector. A CGE micro-simulation model is employed to estimate and explain these impacts. Tariff reduction induces consumers to substitute cheaper imported agricultural products for domestic goods, thereby resulting in a contraction in agricultural output. In contrast, the prevalence of cheap, imported inputs reduces the domestic cost of production, benefiting the outward-oriented and import-dependent industrial sector as their output and export increases. The national poverty headcount decreases marginally as lower consumer prices outweigh the income reduction experienced by the majority of households. However, both the poverty gap and severity of poverty worsens, implying that the poorest of the poor become even poorer.

Economic and Poverty Impacts of a Voluntary Carbon Reduction for a Small Liberalized Developing Economy: The Case of the Philippines

This paper analyzes the economic and poverty effects of a voluntary carbon emission reduction for a small liberalized economy—the Philippines. The simulation results indicate that tariff reductions undertaken by the Philippine government between 1994 and 2005 reduced the cost of fossil fuels thereby resulting in an increase in carbon emissions. The economic cost of reducing carbon emissions by imposing a carbon tax appears minimal as the reduction in consumer prices due to tariff reductions outweigh the increase in production cost from the imposition of a carbon tax. Overall results suggest that maintaining carbon emissions relative to 1994 levels appears to be a sensible alternative for the country

The Gender and Poverty Impacts of Trade Liberalization in Senegal

Developing countries are deeply engaged in trade negotiations at the bilateral, regional and international (WTO) levels. As imports, exports and tariff duties all occupy an important part of their economies, far-reaching impacts on production, labor and capital markets, household incomes and, perhaps most importantly, economic growth will indubitably ensue. As men and women occupy very different roles in these economies, particularly in terms of the import and export orientation of the sectors in which they work, they will be affected very differently by these reforms. To anticipate these changes, a dynamic economy-wide model is developed with an application to Senegal. Whereas most similar existing studies consider the comparative static resource reallocation effects of trade reforms, ours is the first to focus on the growth effects (“dynamic gains from trade”), which are thought to be possibly much larger. The trade-productivity link is revealed to be the strongest growth channel, raising GDP by over three percentage points by the end of our 15 year simulation period. Trade liberalization is found to increase the gender wage gap in favor of men, especially among unskilled workers, as men are more active in export-oriented sectors such as cash crops and mining whereas women contribute more to import-competing sectors such as food crops. Furthermore, the ensuing growth effects further widen the over-all gender wage gap, as the productivity gains from increased openness are greatest in female-intensive sectors in which imports rise markedly. Thus, this suggests the need to implement policies aimed at increasing both unskilled and skilled women’s exposure in labor-intensive export industries, which is currently male dominated. A linked microsimulation analysis, based on a survey of Senegalese households, show that trade liberalization reduces poverty in Senegal, particularly in rural areas. While the fall in the relative wages of rural workers would initially lead us to believe that rural households would lose the most from trade liberalization, they are in fact compensated by greater consumer price savings, given that they consume more goods from the initially protected agricultural and agro-industrial sectors.

Taxation policy and gender employment in the Middle East and North Africa Region: A comparative analysis of Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia

Empirical evidence suggests that women are more vulnerable to chronic poverty and gender inequality is likely to condition the impacts of policies on the rest of the economy and consequently on poverty itself. While gender-responsive budgeting has made significant headway into economic policy, taxation has lagged behind. Because tax policy is the most economically direct way by which governments can influence individual behavior, requests have been made for gender-responsive tax policy that promote gender equality. This study applied to Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia aims to contribute to this debate by assessing the induced gender employment bias of current taxation policies in these countries. It explores the pattern of male and female employment and discusses the indirect tax distortions across sectors within each country and between countries. The possible impact of the indirect tax distortion on male and female employment is quantitatively assessed using a gender-focused computable general equilibrium model. The analysis reveals that indirect taxes, in particular import duties, are biased for female employment in Algeria and Egypt, but not in Morocco and Tunisia. Female labor–intensive industries in Algeria and Egypt are highly protected in the benchmark and are not competitive internationally so that removing protection would increase competition with cheaper import substitutes and cause the sector to contract and lay off workers. In contrast, the same female labor–intensive industries are less protected in Morocco and Tunisia. Hence, removal of indirect taxes in these countries would result in quasi-neutral effects between male and female salary and wage earnings. The taxation policies in the Middle East and North Africa region have changed over the last decade and may undergo significant changes in the coming years. In light of this unpredictability, an assessment of the tax-related relative price bias on men and women constitutes a crucial step toward providing adequate guidance to planners, policymakers, and other stakeholders.

The Growth and Distributive Impacts of Public Infrastructure Investments in the Philippines

This study investigates the role of public infrastructure investment on economic growth and poverty reduction in the Philippines. Using a dynamic general equilibrium-microsimulation model that explicitly models public capital as a production input, we find that the positive supply side effects of higher public investment expenditure manifest over time, through higher capital accumulation and improved productivity. Our findings reveal that higher public infrastructure investment not only positively impacts real GDP, but also reduces poverty and inequality in the short and long run. In this context, the Philippine government needs to become more proactive in finding ways to finance higher public investment expenditures. This is especially relevant with respect to international financing, given the narrow tax base in the country. Our simulation results confirm that international financing is a better alternative than tax financing when considered in terms of its ability to improve the economy’s physical infrastructure in order to create job opportunities, improve productivity and complement its social protection measures.