Erxu Pi

BP-ANN for Fitting the Temperature-Germination Model and Its Application in Predicting Sowing Time and Region for Bermudagrass

Temperature is one of the most significant environmental factors that affects germination of grass seeds. Reliable prediction of the optimal temperature for seed germination is crucial for determining the suitable regions and favorable sowing timing for turf grass cultivation. In this study, a back-propagation-artificial-neural-network-aided dual quintic equation (BP-ANN-QE) model was developed to improve the prediction of the optimal temperature for seed germination. This BP-ANN-QE model was used to determine optimal sowing times and suitable regions for three Cynodon dactylon cultivars (C. dactylon, ‘Savannah’ and ‘Princess VII’). Prediction of the optimal temperature for these seeds was based on comprehensive germination tests using 36 day/night (high/low) temperature regimes (both ranging from 5/5 to 40/40°C with 5°C increments). Seed germination data from these temperature regimes were used to construct temperature-germination correlation models for estimating germination percentage with confidence intervals. Our tests revealed that the optimal high/low temperature regimes required for all the three bermudagrass cultivars are 30/5, 30/10, 35/5, 35/10, 35/15, 35/20, 40/15 and 40/20°C; constant temperatures ranging from 5 to 40°C inhibited the germination of all three cultivars. While comparing different simulating methods, including DQEM, Bisquare ANN-QE, and BP-ANN-QE in establishing temperature based germination percentage rules, we found that the R2 values of germination prediction function could be significantly improved from about 0.6940–0.8177 (DQEM approach) to 0.9439–0.9813 (BP-ANN-QE). These results indicated that our BP-ANN-QE model has better performance than the rests of the compared models. Furthermore, data of the national temperature grids generated from monthly-average temperature for 25 years were fit into these functions and we were able to map the germination percentage of these C. dactylon cultivars in the national scale of China, and suggested the optimum sowing regions and times for them.

Application of Genetic Algorithm to Predict Optimal Sowing Region and Timing for Kentucky Bluegrass in China

Temperature is a predominant environmental factor affecting grass germination and distribution. Various thermal-germination models for prediction of grass seed germination have been reported, in which the relationship between temperature and germination were defined with kernel functions, such as quadratic or quintic function. However, their prediction accuracies warrant further improvements. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the relative prediction accuracies of genetic algorithm (GA) models, which are automatically parameterized with observed germination data. The seeds of five P. pratensis (Kentucky bluegrass, KB) cultivars were germinated under 36 day/night temperature regimes ranging from 5/5 to 40/40°C with 5°C increments. Results showed that optimal germination percentages of all five tested KB cultivars were observed under a fluctuating temperature regime of 20/25°C. Meanwhile, the constant temperature regimes (e.g., 5/5, 10/10, 15/15°C, etc.) suppressed the germination of all five cultivars. Furthermore, the back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) algorithm was integrated to optimize temperature-germination response models from these observed germination data. It was found that integrations of GA-BP-ANN (back propagation aided genetic algorithm artificial neural network) significantly reduced the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values from 0.21~0.23 to 0.02~0.09. In an effort to provide a more reliable prediction of optimum sowing time for the tested KB cultivars in various regions in the country, the optimized GA-BP-ANN models were applied to map spatial and temporal germination percentages of blue grass cultivars in China. Our results demonstrate that the GA-BP-ANN model is a convenient and reliable option for constructing thermal-germination response models since it automates model parameterization and has excellent prediction accuracy.