Esko Kuusisto

Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe

In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite-derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade−1) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors—from seasonally ice-covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade−1) to ice-free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade−1). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes.

Morphometry and average temperature affect lake stratification responses to climate change

Climate change is affecting lake stratification with consequences for water quality and the benefits that lakes provide to society. Here we use long-term temperature data (1970–2010) from 26 lakes around the world to show that climate change has altered lake stratification globally and that the magnitudes of lake stratification changes are primarily controlled by lake morphometry (mean depth, surface area, and volume) and mean lake temperature. Deep lakes and lakes with high average temperatures have experienced the largest changes in lake stratification even though their surface temperatures tend to be warming more slowly. These results confirm that the nonlinear relationship between water density and water temperature and the strong dependence of lake stratification on lake morphometry makes lake temperature trends relatively poor predictors of lake stratification trends.

A global database of lake surface temperatures collected by in situ and satellite methods from 1985–2009

Global environmental change has influenced lake surface temperatures, a key driver of ecosystem structure and function. Recent studies have suggested significant warming of water temperatures in individual lakes across many different regions around the world. However, the spatial and temporal coherence associated with the magnitude of these trends remains unclear. Thus, a global data set of water temperature is required to understand and synthesize global, long-term trends in surface water temperatures of inland bodies of water. We assembled a database of summer lake surface temperatures for 291 lakes collected in situ and/or by satellites for the period 1985–2009. In addition, corresponding climatic drivers (air temperatures, solar radiation, and cloud cover) and geomorphometric characteristics (latitude, longitude, elevation, lake surface area, maximum depth, mean depth, and volume) that influence lake surface temperatures were compiled for each lake. This unique dataset offers an invaluable baseline perspective on global-scale lake thermal conditions as environmental change continues.

Past and current climate change

This section describes long-term observed climatic changes in atmospheric parameters. The focus is on surface climate conditions, but changes in atmospheric circulation are discussed as they often are behind climatic variability seen on regional and local scales. For a summary introduction on mean atmospheric states and conditions in the Baltic Sea Basin see Annex 1.2 with sections on the general atmospheric circulation (A.1.2.1), surface air temperature (A.1.2.2), precipitation (A.1.2.3), clouds (A.1.2.4), and global radiation (A.1.2.5).

Climate and water

The International Conference on Climate and Water was held in Helsinki, Finland from September 11-15, 1989 and was attended by 250 specialists from 28 countries. It was convened by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) under the auspices of the Organizations Regional Association VI (Europe). The majority of the participants and scientific papers were from European countries; experts did, however, attend from as far away as Africa, India, the United States, and Australia. The organizers of the conference were Ministry of the Environment, Finland; Academy of Finland; National Committee for the International Hydrological Programme (IHP) and the Research Council for the Environmental Sciences; Finnish National Board of Waters and the Environment; Finnish Meteorological Institute and World Meteorological Organization. The cosponsors were the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).

Global patterns in lake ecosystem responses to warming based on the temperature dependence of metabolism.

Climate warming is expected to have large effects on ecosystems in part due to the temperature dependence of metabolism. The responses of metabolic rates to climate warming may be greatest in the tropics and at low elevations because mean temperatures are warmer there and metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature (with exponents >1). However, if warming rates are sufficiently fast in higher latitude/elevation lakes, metabolic rate responses to warming may still be greater there even though metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature. Thus, a wide range of global patterns in the magnitude of metabolic rate responses to warming could emerge depending on global patterns of temperature and warming rates. Here we use the Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation, published estimates of activation energy, and time series of temperature from 271 lakes to estimate long-term (1970-2010) changes in 64 metabolic processes in lakes. The estimated responses of metabolic processes to warming were usually greatest in tropical/low-elevation lakes even though surface temperatures in higher latitude/elevation lakes are warming faster. However, when the thermal sensitivity of a metabolic process is especially weak, higher latitude/elevation lakes had larger responses to warming in parallel with warming rates. Our results show that the sensitivity of a given response to temperature (as described by its activation energy) provides a simple heuristic for predicting whether tropical/low-elevation lakes will have larger or smaller metabolic responses to warming than higher latitude/elevation lakes. Overall, we conclude that the direct metabolic consequences of lake warming are likely to be felt most strongly at low latitudes and low elevations where metabolism-linked ecosystem services may be most affected.

Reconstructing lake ice cover in subarctic lakes using a diatom‐based inference model

A new quantitative diatom-based lake ice cover inference model was developed to reconstruct past ice cover histories and applied to four subarctic lakes. The used ice cover model is based on a calculated melting degree day value of +130 and a freezing degree day value of −30 for each lake. The reconstructed Holocene ice cover duration histories show similar trends to the independently reconstructed regional air temperature history. The ice cover duration was around 7 days shorter than the average ice cover duration during the warmer early Holocene (approximately 10 to 6.5 calibrated kyr B.P.) and around 3–5 days longer during the cool Little Ice Age (approximately 500 to 100 calibrated yr B.P.). Although the recent climate warming is represented by only 2–3 samples in the sediment series, these show a rising trend in the prolonged ice-free periods of up to 2 days. Diatom-based ice cover inference models can provide a powerful tool to reconstruct past ice cover histories in remote and sensitive areas where no measured data are available.