Estelle C.C. Ågren

Probability of freedom from disease after the first detection and eradication of PRRS in Sweden: Scenario-tree modelling of the surveillance system

In July 2007, PRRS was detected for the first time in Sweden. A total of eight positive herds were identified and various measures were taken to eradicate the disease, including restrictions and slaughter of infected herds. Subsequently, both active and passive surveillance activities were undertaken. This study describes stochastic scenario-tree modelling of all the various surveillance system components, to estimate the current probability that Sweden is free from PRRS. The model includes all actions taken after the first positive herd was detected. The surveillance system components included in the model were as follows: investigations undertaken in association with the outbreak, a serological study based on samples collected at slaughter, samples collected in the national PRRS surveillance programme and passive clinical surveillance. The probability of freedom was estimated in time steps of 1 month, from July to December 2007. After each time step, the calculated posterior probability of freedom from the previous month, combined with the probability of introduction, was used as a prior probability for the next month. The result from the model showed a 99.8% probability that Sweden was free from PRRS at the end of December 2007. The estimated total sensitivity of the surveillance system varied between 81.2% and 94.3% and was highest during the first months after the outbreak. For sensitivity analysis purposes, the model was also applied using higher risks of introduction. However, this did not make considerable difference to the final estimates.

Possible means of introduction of bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) to Sweden in August 2008: comparison of results from two models for atmospheric transport of the Culicoides vector.

In September 2008, bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) infection was detected for the first time in Sweden, in a dairy herd on the west coast. Two different previously published operational atmospheric dispersion models indicate that midges from infected regions in Europe are likely to have reached Sweden by atmospheric transport during an estimated infection window. Both models indicated that the likely dates for the incursion of midges were overnight on August 6 to 7 and August 14 to 15; however, the less constrained model indicated a number of additional possible dates. The distribution of infected herds detected by active surveillance coincides with the regions that were indicated by the models to have been reached by midges from regions in Denmark and Germany with infected herds. It is likely that several points of introduction of infected midges occurred, possibly on different occasions. No alternative routes for introduction of the infection to Sweden were identified, supporting the theory that BTV-8 was introduced by infected midges carried by the wind.

Surveillance system sensitivities and probability of freedom from Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection in Swedish cattle.

Previous investigations suggest that the prevalence of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) in Swedish cattle is low and all recent cases have been linked to imported animals. The aim of this study was to evaluate the surveillance system for MAP infection in Swedish cattle and to estimate the probability that the Swedish cattle population is free from this infection. Calculations of surveillance sensitivities and probability of freedom were made using stochastic scenario-tree modelling, which allows inclusion of information from several different sources, of complex surveillance data including results from non-representative sampling, as well as of documentations of differences in risk of being infected. The surveillance components included in the model were: (1) clinical surveillance, (2) fallen stock investigations, (3) the national surveillance programme (mainly beef herds), (4) a survey involving dairy herds and (5) a risk-based survey targeting herds with imported cattle. Previous or current presence of imported animals and participation in the on-going control programme was specified for each tested herd, in order to adjust for differences in risk. Calculations were made for each year from the start of 2005 to the end of 2008, and this formed the basis for a final estimate covering the whole study period and predictions of future probabilities of freedom from MAP. Results show that when applying a design prevalence of one animal in 0.1% of the herds, the probability of freedom at the end of 2008 was 0.63. At the design prevalence of one animal in 0.5% of herds, the estimated probability is >95% and it is demonstrated that the prevalence of MAP in Swedish cattle is below this level or absent. In order to increase the annual surveillance sensitivity in the future and thereby improve the probability of freedom, new surveillance activities or an intensification of current ones are needed.

Low prevalence of Salmonella in Swedish dairy herds highlight differences between serotypes.

Legislated Salmonella control in Sweden has been in place since the 1960s. The purpose of this study was to investigate presence of Salmonella antibodies in dairy cattle herds and to provide a basis for decisions on how surveillance and control can be improved. Bulk milk samples from all Swedish dairy herds (n=4 683) were analysed with two different ELISAs; one detecting antibodies against Salmonella Dublin (Dublin ELISA), and one detecting antibodies against several of the serotypes causing bovine salmonellosis including S. Dublin (Bovine ELISA). Information about herds, i.e. geographical location, local animal density, number of test positive herds within 5km, animal trade and herd size, was based on register data. The results confirm a very low prevalence of Salmonella in Swedish dairy herds throughout the country with the exception of an island in the southeast. The test positive herds split into two groups; 41 herds (1%) positive in the Dublin ELISA, and 101 herds (2%) positive in the Bovine ELISA but negative in the Dublin ELISA. Geographical location of positive herds, and comparison of the results of the screening with serotypes previously isolated from some of the herds, indicated that the first group represents herds presently or previously infected with S. Dublin while the second group represents herds presently or previously infected with other serotypes. Differences in serological status between herds in different regions, of different size, with different animal purchase patterns et cetera, were tested using logistic regression. Presence of positive herds within 5km was significantly associated to testing positive. For herds testing positive in the Dublin ELISA, significant associations were also seen with herd size. Purchase of animals during the last year was not significantly associated with the outcome in the final models. We conclude that for future surveillance, the Bovine ELISA can be used to help in identifying infected herds, and the Dublin ELISA can be used to distinguish herds with S. Dublin infections. The geographical clustering of test positive herds could facilitate future surveillance and disease control interventions. The results highlight differences between S. Dublin and other serotypes, e.g. concerning prevalence and degree of geographical clustering. Further studies on risk factors and potential local spread of Salmonella is warranted, particularly in the regions with clustering of S. Dublin infected herds.

Infertility in the cycling queen: Seven cases

In this study we examined seven queens with normal oestrous cycles and a history of infertility after normal matings. We performed clinical examination, vaginal cytology, evaluation of oestradiol, progesterone and total T4 levels, vaginal bacterial culture, ultrasonography, and serum analyses for detection of antibodies against chlamydia and feline leukaemia virus (FeLV) antigenemia. Ovariohysterectomy (OHE) was recommended for 1/7 queens because of pathological uterine changes detected at ultrasonography and clinical examination. Four out of seven queens were treated with antibiotics and two of these had more litters. One of the queens that were treated was not mated again and one was mated without conceiving and was at a later OHE found to have degenerative uterine changes. No treatment was given and no diagnosis could be established in 2/7 queens. Both of them were later ovariohysterectomised and one showed degenerative uterine changes while the uterus of the other queen could not be obtained for follow-up. In summary, 4/7 cats were diagnosed with uterine pathology and no definitive diagnosis could be established for 3/7 queens.

Factors affecting costs for on-farm control of salmonella in Swedish dairy herds

BackgroundThe Swedish control program for salmonella includes restrictions and on-farm control measures when salmonella is detected in a herd. Required control measures are subsidised by the government. This provides an opportunity to study costs for on-farm salmonella control. The aim of this study was to describe the costs for on-farm salmonella control in Swedish cattle herds and to investigate the effects of herd factors on these costs in dairy herds.ResultsDuring the 15xa0years studied there had been a total of 124 restriction periods in 118 cattle herds; 89 dairy herds, 28 specialised fattening herds and three suckler herds. The average costs per herd for on-farm salmonella control was 4.60 million SEK with a median of 1.06 million SEK corresponding to approximately 490 000 and 110 000 EUR. The range was 0.01 to 41 million SEK corresponding to 1080 EUR to 4.44 million EUR per farm. The costs cover measures required in herd-specific control plans, generally measures improving herd hygiene. A mixed linear model was used to investigate associations between herd factors and costs for on-farm salmonella control in dairy herds. Herd size and length of the restriction period were both significantly associated with costs for on-farm control of salmonella with larger herds and longer periods of restrictions leading to higher costs. Serotype detected and administrative changes in the Swedish Board of Agriculture aiming at reducing costs were not associated with costs for on-farm salmonella control.ConclusionsOn-farm control of salmonella in Swedish cattle herds incurred high costs but the costs also varied largely between herds. Larger herds and longer restriction periods increased the costs for on-farm control of salmonella in Swedish dairy herds. This causes concern for future costs for the Swedish salmonella control program as herd sizes are increasing.

Comparison of whole genome sequencing typing results and epidemiological contact information from outbreaks of Salmonella Dublin in Swedish cattle herds

Background Whole genome sequencing (WGS) is becoming a routine tool for infectious disease outbreak investigations. The Swedish situation provides an excellent opportunity to test the usefulness of WGS for investigation of outbreaks with Salmonella Dublin (S. Dublin) as epidemiological investigations are always performed when Salmonella is detected in livestock production, and index isolates from all detected herds are stored and therefore available for analysis. This study was performed to evaluate WGS as a tool in forward and backward tracings from herds infected with S. Dublin. Material and methods In this study, 28 isolates from 26 cattle herds were analysed and the WGS results were compared with results from the epidemiological investigations, for example, information on contacts between herds. The isolates originated from herds in three different outbreaks separated geographically and to some extent also in time, and from the only region in Sweden where S. Dublin is endemic (Öland). Results The WGS results of isolates from the three non-endemic regions were reliably separated from each other and from the endemic isolates. Within the outbreaks, herds with known epidemiological contacts generally showed smaller differences between isolates as compared to when there were no known epidemiological contacts. Conclusion The results indicate that WGS can provide valuable supplemental information in S. Dublin outbreak investigations. The resolution of the WGS was sufficient to distinguish isolates from the different outbreaks and provided additional information to the investigations within an outbreak.

A questionnaire study of associations between potential risk factors and salmonella status in Swedish dairy herds

In this study associations between potential risk factors and salmonella status in Swedish dairy herds were investigated. A case-control study design was used, including existing as well as new cases. Herds were assigned a salmonella status on the basis of antibody analysis of bulk milk samples. Information on potential risk factors was collected from registry data and from farmers via a questionnaire. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to investigate associations between salmonella status and potential risk factors. In addition, multivariate analysis with Additive Bayesian Network (ABN) modelling was performed to improve understanding of the complex relationship between all the variables. Because of the difficulty in identifying associations between potential risk factors and infections with low prevalence and a large regional variation, exposure of potential risk factors in the high-prevalence region (Öland) were compared to exposure in other regions in Sweden. In total 483 of 996 (48%) farmers responded to the questionnaire, 69 herds had test-positive bulk milk samples. The strongest association with salmonella status was presence of salmonella test-positive herds <5 km (OR 4.3, 95% CI 2.0-9.4). Associations with salmonella status were also seen between feeding calves residue milk only (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2-4.6), certified organic herds (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.2-4.9) and frequently seeing signs of rodents (OR 0.4, 95% CI 0.13-0.97). The ABN model showed associations between Öland and four of the variables: salmonella status, presence of test-positive herds <5km, shared pastures and providing protective clothing for visitors. The latter is probably a reflection of increased disease awareness in Öland. The ABN model showed associations between herd size and housing as well as several management procedures. This provides an explanation why herd size frequently has been identified as a risk factor for salmonella by other studies. The study confirms the importance of local transmission routes for salmonella, but does not identify specific components in this local spread. Therefore, it supports the use of a broad biosecurity approach in the prevention of salmonella. In Öland, some potential risk factors are more common than in other parts of Sweden. Theoretically these could contribute to the spread of salmonella, but this was not confirmed in the present study. The study also highlights the difficulty in identifying associations between potential risk factors and infections with low prevalence and large regional variation.

Herd level estimation of probability of disease freedom applied on the Norwegian control program for bovine respiratory syncytial virus and bovine coronavirus

n Abstractn n A national control program against bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) and bovine coronavirus (BCV) was launched in Norway in 2016. A key strategy in the program is to test for presence of antibodies and protect test-negative herds from infection. Because these viruses are endemic, the rate of re-introduction can be high, and a disease-free status will become more uncertain as time from testing elapses. The aim of this study was to estimate the probability of freedom (PostPFree) from BRSV and BCV antibodies over time by use of bulk tank milk (BTM) antibody-testing, geographic information and animal movement data, and to validate the herd-level estimates against subsequent BTM testing.n BTM samples were collected from 1148 study herds in West Norway in 2013 and 2016, and these were analyzed for BRSV and BCV antibodies. PostPFree was calculated for herds that were negative in 2013/2014, and updated periodically with new probabilities every three months. Input variables were test sensitivity, the probability of introduction through animal purchase and local transmission. Probability of introduction through animal purchase was calculated by using real animal movement data and herd prevalence in the region of the source herd. The PostPFree from the final three months in 2015 was compared to BTM test results from March 2016 using a Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test.n The probability of freedom was generally high for test-negative herds immediately after testing, reflecting the high sensitivity of the tests. It did however, decrease with time since testing, and was greatly affected by purchase of livestock. When comparing the median PostPFree for the final three months to the test results in 2016, it was significantly lower (pu2009<u20090.01) for test positive herds. Furthermore, there was a large difference in the proportion of test positive herds between the first and fourth quartile of PostPFree. The results show that PostPFree provides a better estimate of herd-level BTM status for both BRSV and BCV than what can be achieved by relying solely on the previous test-result.n n

Evaluation of herd-level sampling strategies for control of Salmonella in Swedish cattle

Based on Swedish legislation, all herds where Salmonella of any serotype is detected are put under restrictions, and measures aiming at eradication are required. Costs for sampling and control have increased in recent years and the aim of this study was to investigate the efficiency of different sampling strategies. We also compiled test results from recent surveillance activities and used these to complement and compare with calculated results. Sensitivities and specificities at group and herd level were calculated for different test strategies. A scenario-tree modeling approach was used to account for the hierarchy of animals within herds, and different relative risk of salmonella in different age groups. Negative and positive predictive values (NPV and PPV), and probability of freedom from Salmonella were calculated to compare the added value of different sampling strategies. Results showed that more fecal samples than serological samples per group are needed to reach a group sensitivity >0.50. This also means that serological testing leads to a higher NPV. For example, with 10 negative test-results from a group of 25 animals in a herd with a suspicion of Salmonella, the NPV based on serology was 0.75 and based on culture was 0.56. For the PPV, testing based on culture from fecal sampling was superior, as specificity of such testing was close to perfect. By changing the threshold for considering a group positive, from 1 test-positive animal to 2, the PPV of serological results could be increased without substantial loss in NPV. The herd sensitivity based on (1) bulk milk sampling, (2) fecal sampling of all animals, and (3) bulk milk sampling and individual sera from 20 animals within each age group was 0.53, 0.88, and 0.95, respectively. In low-prevalence regions, this sensitivity was enough to verify a high probability of freedom (>0.99), as the probability of infection in such Swedish regions has been shown to be 0.01. For herds with a higher prior probability of infection, repeated sampling (2-9 sampling occasions) was needed to reach the same level of confidence. Analysis of surveillance data indicated that boot swabs can be used to replace the standard fecal sampling presently used in Sweden. It was also confirmed that the individual specificity of the tests used for serological testing of Swedish calves is high (0.99). The results can form a basis for fit-for-purpose testing strategies (e.g., surveillance or prepurchase testing).