Ethel S. Gilbert

The 15-country collaborative study of cancer risk among radiation workers in the nuclear industry: Estimates of radiation-related cancer risks

Abstract Cardis, E., Vrijheid, M., Blettner, M., Gilbert, E., Hakama, M., Hill, C., Howe, G., Kaldor, J., Muirhead, C. R., Schubauer-Berigan, M., Yoshimura, T., Bermann, F., Cowper, G., Fix, J., Hacker, C., Heinmiller, B., Marshall, M., Thierry-Chef, I., Utterback, D., Ahn, Y-O., Amoros, E., Ashmore, P., Auvinen, A., Bae, J-M., Bernar, J. S., Biau, A., Combalot, E., Deboodt, P., Diez Sacristan, A., Eklöf, M., Engels, H., Engholm, G., Gulis, G., Habib, R. R., Holan, K., Hyvonen, H., Kerekes, A., Kurtinaitis, J., Malker, H., Martuzzi, M., Mastauskas, A., Monnet, A., Moser, M., Pearce, M. S., Richardson, D. B., Rodriguez-Artalejo, F., Rogel, A., Tardy, H., Telle-Lamberton, M., Turai, I., Usel, M. and Veress, K. The 15-Country Collaborative Study of Cancer Risk among Radiation Workers in the Nuclear Industry: Estimates of Radiation-Related Cancer Risks. Radiat. Res. 167, 396– 416 (2007). A 15-Country collaborative cohort study was conducted to provide direct estimates of cancer risk following protracted low doses of ionizing radiation. Analyses included 407,391 nuclear industry workers monitored individually for external radiation and 5.2 million person-years of follow-up. A significant association was seen between radiation dose and all-cause mortality [excess relative risk (ERR) 0.42 per Sv, 90% CI 0.07, 0.79; 18,993 deaths]. This was mainly attributable to a dose-related increase in all cancer mortality (ERR/Sv 0.97, 90% CI 0.28, 1.77; 5233 deaths). Among 31 specific types of malignancies studied, a significant association was found for lung cancer (ERR/Sv 1.86, 90% CI 0.49, 3.63; 1457 deaths) and a borderline significant (P = 0.06) association for multiple myeloma (ERR/Sv 6.15, 90% CI <0, 20.6; 83 deaths) and ill-defined and secondary cancers (ERR/Sv 1.96, 90% CI −0.26, 5.90; 328 deaths). Stratification on duration of employment had a large effect on the ERR/Sv, reflecting a strong healthy worker survivor effect in these cohorts. This is the largest analytical epidemiological study of the effects of low-dose protracted exposures to ionizing radiation to date. Further studies will be important to better assess the role of tobacco and other occupational exposures in our risk estimates.

Risk of cancer after low doses of ionising radiation: retrospective cohort study in 15 countries

Abstract Objectives To provide direct estimates of risk of cancer after protracted low doses of ionising radiation and to strengthen the scientific basis of radiation protection standards for environmental, occupational, and medical diagnostic exposures. Design Multinational retrospective cohort study of cancer mortality. Setting Cohorts of workers in the nuclear industry in 15 countries. Participants 407 391 workers individually monitored for external radiation with a total follow-up of 5.2 million person years. Main outcome measurements Estimates of excess relative risks per sievert (Sv) of radiation dose for mortality from cancers other than leukaemia and from leukaemia excluding chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, the main causes of death considered by radiation protection authorities. Results The excess relative risk for cancers other than leukaemia was 0.97 per Sv, 95% confidence interval 0.14 to 1.97. Analyses of causes of death related or unrelated to smoking indicate that, although confounding by smoking may be present, it is unlikely to explain all of this increased risk. The excess relative risk for leukaemia excluding chronic lymphocytic leukaemia was 1.93 per Sv (< 0 to 8.47). On the basis of these estimates, 1-2% of deaths from cancer among workers in this cohort may be attributable to radiation. Conclusions These estimates, from the largest study of nuclear workers ever conducted, are higher than, but statistically compatible with, the risk estimates used for current radiation protection standards. The results suggest that there is a small excess risk of cancer, even at the low doses and dose rates typically received by nuclear workers in this study.

Solid cancers after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation

Transplant recipients have been reported to have an increased risk of solid cancers but most studies are small and have limited ability to evaluate the interaction of host, disease, and treatment-related factors. In the largest study to date to evaluate risk factors for solid cancers, we studied a multi-institutional cohort of 28 874 allogeneic transplant recipients with 189 solid malignancies. Overall, patients developed new solid cancers at twice the rate expected based on general population rates (observed-to-expected ratio 2.1; 95% confidence interval 1.8-2.5), with the risk increasing over time (P trend < .001); the risk reached 3-fold among patients followed for 15 years or more after transplantation. New findings showed that the risk of developing a non-squamous cell carcinoma (non-SCC) following conditioning radiation was highly dependent on age at exposure. Among patients irradiated at ages under 30 years, the relative risk of non-SCC was 9 times that of nonirradiated patients, while the comparable risk for older patients was 1.1 (P interaction < .01). Chronic graft-versus-host disease and male sex were the main determinants for risk of SCC. These data indicate that allogeneic transplant survivors, particularly those irradiated at young ages, face increased risks of solid cancers, supporting strategies to promote lifelong surveillance among these patients.

Long-term solid cancer risk among 5-year survivors of Hodgkin's lymphoma.

PURPOSE Hodgkins lymphoma (HL) survivors are known to be at substantially increased risk of solid cancers (SC). However, no investigation has used multivariate modeling to estimate the relative risk (RR), excess absolute risk (EAR), and cumulative incidence for specific attained ages and ages at HL diagnosis. PATIENTS AND METHODS We identified 18,862 5-year HL survivors from 13 population-based cancer registries in North America and Europe. Poisson regression was used to evaluate the effects of age at diagnosis, attained age, latency, sex, treatment, and year of diagnosis on the RR and EAR of SC. RESULTS Among 1,490 identified SC, 850 were estimated to be in excess. For most cancer sites, both RR and EAR decreased with age at HL diagnosis and showed strong dependencies on attained age. For a patient diagnosed at age 30 years and survived to > or = 40 years, modeled risks were significantly elevated for cancers of the breast (RR = 6.1), other supradiaphragmatic sites (RR = 6.0), and infradiaphragmatic sites (RR = 3.7); the largest RR (20-fold) was observed for malignant mesothelioma. Thirty-year cumulative risks of SC for men and women diagnosed at 30 years were 18% and 26%, respectively, compared with 7% and 9%, respectively, in the general population. For young HL patients, risks of breast and colorectal cancers were elevated 10 to 25 years before the age when routine screening would be recommended in the general population. CONCLUSION Multivariable modeling demonstrates for the first time temporal changes in SC risk not evident in unadjusted analyses, and can facilitate the development of individualized risk assessment and the creation of screening strategies for early detection.

Risk factors for lymphoproliferative disorders after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation

We evaluated 26 901 patients who underwent allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) at 271 centers worldwide to define patterns of posttransplantation lymphoproliferative disorders (PTLDs). PTLDs developed in 127 recipients, with 105 (83%) cases occurring within 1 year after transplantation. In multivariate analyses, we confirmed that PTLD risks were strongly associated (P < .001) with T-cell depletion of the donor marrow, antithymocyte globulin (ATG) use, and unrelated or HLA-mismatched grafts (URD/HLA mismatch). Significant associations were also confirmed for acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease. The increased risk associated with URD/HLA-mismatched donors (RR = 3.8) was limited to patients with T-cell depletion or ATG use (P = .004). New findings were elevated risks for age 50 years or older at transplantation (RR = 5.1; P < .001) and second transplantation (RR = 3.5; P < .001). Lower risks were found for T-cell depletion methods that remove both T and B cells (alemtuzumab and elutriation, RR = 3.1; P = .025) compared with other methods (RR = 9.4; P = .005 for difference). The cumulative incidence of PTLDs was low (0.2%) among 21 686 patients with no major risk factors, but increased to 1.1%, 3.6%, and 8.1% with 1, 2, and more than 3 major risk factors, respectively. Our findings identify subgroups of patients who underwent allogeneic HCT at elevated risk of PTLDs for whom prospective monitoring of Epstein-Barr virus activation and early treatment intervention may be particularly beneficial.

Second solid cancers after radiotherapy for breast cancer in SEER cancer registries

Background:Radiotherapy for breast cancer reduces disease recurrence and breast cancer mortality. However, it has also been associated with increased second cancer risks in exposed sites.Methods:We evaluated long-term second cancer risks among 182 057 5-year survivors of locoregional invasive breast cancer diagnosed between 1973 and 2000 and reported to US NCI-SEER Program cancer registries. Multivariate Poisson regression was used to estimate the relative risk (RR) and excess cases of second cancer in women who had surgery and radiotherapy, compared with those who had surgery alone. Second cancer sites were grouped according to doses received from typical tangential breast fields.Results:By the end of 2005 (median follow-up=13.0 years), 15 498 second solid cancers had occurred, including 6491 contralateral breast cancers. The RRs for radiotherapy were 1.45 (95% confidence interval (CI)=1.33–1.58) for high-dose second cancer sites (1+ Gy: lung, oesophagus, pleura, bone and soft tissue) and 1.09 (1.04–1.15) for contralateral breast cancer (≈1 Gy). These risks decreased with increasing age and year of treatment. There was no evidence of elevated risks for sites receiving medium (0.5–0.99 Gy, RR=0.89 (0.74–1.06)) or low doses (<0.5 Gy, RR=1.01 (0.95–1.07)). The estimated excess cases of cancer in women treated with radiotherapy were as follows: 176 (95% CI=69–284) contralateral breast cancers or 5% (2–8%) of the total in all 1+year survivors, and 292 (222–362) other solid cancers or 6% (4–7%) of the total.Conclusions:Most second solid cancers in breast cancer survivors are not related to radiotherapy.

Second Malignant Neoplasms and Cardiovascular Disease Following Radiotherapy

Second malignant neoplasms (SMNs) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) are among the most serious and life-threatening late adverse effects experienced by the growing number of cancer survivors worldwide and are due in part to radiotherapy. The National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) convened an expert scientific committee to critically and comprehensively review associations between radiotherapy and SMNs and CVD, taking into account radiobiology; genomics; treatment (ie, radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy and other therapies); type of radiation; and quantitative considerations (ie, dose-response relationships). Major conclusions of the NCRP include: 1) the relevance of older technologies for current risk assessment when organ-specific absorbed dose and the appropriate relative biological effectiveness are taken into account and 2) the identification of critical research needs with regard to newer radiation modalities, dose-response relationships, and genetic susceptibility. Recommendation for research priorities and infrastructural requirements include 1) long-term large-scale follow-up of extant cancer survivors and prospectively treated patients to characterize risks of SMNs and CVD in terms of radiation dose and type; 2) biological sample collection to integrate epidemiological studies with molecular and genetic evaluations; 3) investigation of interactions between radiotherapy and other potential confounding factors, such as age, sex, race, tobacco and alcohol use, dietary intake, energy balance, and other cofactors, as well as genetic susceptibility; 4) focusing on adolescent and young adult cancer survivors, given the sparse research in this population; and 5) construction of comprehensive risk prediction models for SMNs and CVD to permit the development of follow-up guidelines and prevention and intervention strategies.

Cancer Mortality Risk among Workers at the Mayak Nuclear Complex

Abstract Shilnikova, N. S., Preston, D. L., Ron, E., Gilbert, E. S., Vassilenko, E. K., Romanov, S. A., Kuznetsova, I. S., Sokolnikov, M. E., Okatenko, P. V., Kreslov, V. V. and Koshurnikova, N. A. Cancer Mortality Risk among Workers at the Mayak Nuclear Complex. Radiat. Res. 159, 787–798 (2003). At present, direct data on risk from protracted or fractionated radiation exposure at low dose rates have been limited largely to studies of populations exposed to low cumulative doses with resulting low statistical power. We evaluated the cancer risks associated with protracted exposure to external whole-body γ radiation at high cumulative doses (the average dose is 0.8 Gy and the highest doses exceed 10 Gy) in Russian nuclear workers. Cancer deaths in a cohort of about 21,500 nuclear workers who began working at the Mayak complex between 1948 and 1972 were ascertained from death certificates and autopsy reports with follow-up through December 1997. Excess relative risk models were used to estimate solid cancer and leukemia risks associated with external γ-radiation dose with adjustment for effects of plutonium exposures. Both solid cancer and leukemia death rates increased significantly with increasing γ-ray dose (P < 0.001). Under a linear dose–response model, the excess relative risk for lung, liver and skeletal cancers as a group (668 deaths) adjusted for plutonium exposure is 0.30 per gray (P < 0.001) and 0.08 per gray (P < 0.001) for all other solid cancers (1062 deaths). The solid cancer dose–response functions appear to be nonlinear, with the excess risk estimates at doses of less than 3 Gy being about twice those predicted by the linear model. Plutonium exposure was associated with increased risks both for lung, liver and skeletal cancers (the sites of primary plutonium deposition) and for other solid cancers as a group. A significant dose response, with no indication of plutonium exposure effects, was found for leukemia. Excess risks for leukemia exhibited a significant dependence on the time since the dose was received. For doses received within 3 to 5 years of death the excess relative risk per gray was estimated to be about 7 (P < 0.001), but this risk was only 0.45 (P = 0.02) for doses received 5 to 45 years prior to death. External γ-ray exposures significantly increased risks of both solid cancers and leukemia in this large cohort of men and women with occupational radiation exposures. Risks at doses of less than 1 Gy may be slightly lower than those seen for doses arising from acute exposures in the atomic bomb survivors. As dose estimates for the Mayak workers are improved, it should be possible to obtain more precise estimates of solid cancer and leukemia risks from protracted external radiation exposure in this cohort.

The 15-country collaborative study of cancer risk among radiation workers in the nuclear industry: Design, epidemiological methods and descriptive results

Abstract Vrijheid, M., Cardis, E., Blettner, M., Gilbert, E., Hakama, M., Hill, C., Howe, G., Kaldor, J., Muirhead, C. R., Schubauer-Berigan, M., Yoshimura, T., Ahn, Y-O., Ashmore, P., Auvinen, A., Bae, J-M., Engels, H., Gulis, G., Habib, R., Hosoda, Y., Kurtinaitis, J., Malker H., Moser, M., Rodriguez-Artalejo, F., Rogel, A., Tardy, H., Telle-Lamberton, M., Turai, I., Usel, M. and Veress, K. The 15-Country Collaborative Study of Cancer Risk among Radiation Workers in the Nuclear Industry: Design, Epidemiological Methods and Descriptive Results. Radiat. Res. 167, 361–379 (2007). Radiation protection standards are based mainly on risk estimates from studies of atomic bomb survivors in Japan. The validity of extrapolations from the relatively high-dose acute exposures in this population to the low-dose, protracted or fractionated environmental and occupational exposures of primary public health concern has long been the subject of controversy. A collaborative retrospective cohort study was conducted to provide direct estimates of cancer risk after low-dose protracted exposures. The study included nearly 600,000 workers employed in 154 facilities in 15 countries. This paper describes the design, methods and results of descriptive analyses of the study. The main analyses included 407,391 nuclear industry workers employed for at least 1 year in a participating facility who were monitored individually for external radiation exposure and whose doses resulted predominantly from exposure to higher-energy photon radiation. The total duration of follow-up was 5,192,710 person-years. There were 24,158 deaths from all causes, including 6,734 deaths from cancer. The total collective dose was 7,892 Sv. The overall average cumulative recorded dose was 19.4 mSv. A strong healthy worker effect was observed in most countries. This study provides the largest body of direct evidence to date on the effects of low-dose protracted exposures to external photon radiation.

Second Solid Cancers After Radiation Therapy: A Systematic Review of the Epidemiologic Studies of the Radiation Dose-Response Relationship

Rapid innovations in radiation therapy techniques have resulted in an urgent need for risk projection models for second cancer risks from high-dose radiation exposure, because direct observation of the late effects of newer treatments will require patient follow-up for a decade or more. However, the patterns of cancer risk after fractionated high-dose radiation are much less well understood than those after lower-dose exposures (0.1-5 Gy). In particular, there is uncertainty about the shape of the dose-response curve at high doses and about the magnitude of the second cancer risk per unit dose. We reviewed the available evidence from epidemiologic studies of second solid cancers in organs that received high-dose exposure (>5 Gy) from radiation therapy where dose-response curves were estimated from individual organ-specific doses. We included 28 eligible studies with 3434 second cancer patients across 11 second solid cancers. Overall, there was little evidence that the dose-response curve was nonlinear in the direction of a downturn in risk, even at organ doses of ≥60 Gy. Thyroid cancer was the only exception, with evidence of a downturn after 20 Gy. Generally the excess relative risk per Gray, taking account of age and sex, was 5 to 10 times lower than the risk from acute exposures of <2 Gy among the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. However, the magnitude of the reduction in risk varied according to the second cancer. The results of our review provide insights into radiation carcinogenesis from fractionated high-dose exposures and are generally consistent with current theoretical models. The results can be used to refine the development of second solid cancer risk projection models for novel radiation therapy techniques.