Etienne K. Klein

Long‐distance gene flow and adaptation of forest trees to rapid climate change

Forest trees are the dominant species in many parts of the world and predicting how they might respond to climate change is a vital global concern. Trees are capable of long-distance gene flow, which can promote adaptive evolution in novel environments by increasing genetic variation for fitness. It is unclear, however, if this can compensate for maladaptive effects of gene flow and for the long-generation times of trees. We critically review data on the extent of long-distance gene flow and summarise theory that allows us to predict evolutionary responses of trees to climate change. Estimates of long-distance gene flow based both on direct observations and on genetic methods provide evidence that genes can move over spatial scales larger than habitat shifts predicted under climate change within one generation. Both theoretical and empirical data suggest that the positive effects of gene flow on adaptation may dominate in many instances. The balance of positive to negative consequences of gene flow may, however, differ for leading edge, core and rear sections of forest distributions. We propose future experimental and theoretical research that would better integrate dispersal biology with evolutionary quantitative genetics and improve predictions of tree responses to climate change.

Pollen flow in the wildservice tree, Sorbus torminalis (L.) Crantz. II. Pollen dispersal and heterogeneity in mating success inferred from parent–offspring analysis

Knowing the extent of gene movements from parents to offspring is essential to understand the potential of a species to adapt rapidly to a changing environment, and to design appropriate conservation strategies. In this study, we develop a nonlinear statistical model to jointly estimate the pollen dispersal kernel and the heterogeneity in fecundity among phenotypically or environmentally defined groups of males. This model uses genotype data from a sample of fruiting plants, a sample of seeds harvested on each of these plants, and all males within a circumscribed area. We apply this model to a scattered, entomophilous woody species, Sorbus torminalis (L.) Crantz, within a natural population covering more than 470 ha. We estimate a high heterogeneity in male fecundity among ecological groups, both due to phenotype (size of the trees and flowering intensity) and landscape factors (stand density within the neighbourhood). We also show that fat‐tailed kernels are the most appropriate to depict the important abilities of long‐distance pollen dispersal for this species. Finally, our results reveal that the spatial position of a male with respect to females affects as much its mating success as ecological determinants of male fecundity. Our study thus stresses the interest to account for the dispersal kernel when estimating heterogeneity in male fecundity, and reciprocally.

A pollen-dispersal experiment with transgenic oilseed rape. Estimation of the average pollen dispersal of an individual plant within a field

Abstract In order to help establish a basis for the assessment of gene flow associated with the large-scale release of transgenic oilseed rape, we previously designed a method which makes it possible to retrieve the average pollen dispersal of a single plant from that of a large source plot. The ‘individual’ pollen distribution thus obtained is less dependent on the experimental design than pollen distributions usually published and could therefore be used to model the possible escape of a transgene from commercial transgenic crops. In this study we report on a field experiment set up to study the pollen dispersal from an herbicide-resistant transgenic variety of oilseed rape and to test the applicability of the method on the experimental data. Two techniques were used to determine the individual pollen dispersal, and their outcomes are compared. The results suggest that approximately half of the pollen produced by an individual plant fell within 3 m and that the probability of fertilisation afterwards decreased slowly along a negative exponential of the distance. Comparison with the global pollen distribution from the source plot indicates that pollen-dispersal distributions based on dispersal from whole plots instead of individual plants would have underestimated the proportion of pollen that was dispersed over average or long distances.

Mixing of propagules from discrete sources at long distance: comparing a dispersal tail to an exponential

BackgroundRare long distance dispersal events impact the demography and the genetic structure of populations. When dispersal is modelled via a dispersal kernel, one possible characterisation of long-distance dispersal is given by the shape of the tail of the kernel, i.e. its type of decay. This characteristic is known to directly act on the speed and pattern of colonization, and on the spatial structure of genetic diversity during colonization. In particular, colonization waves behave differently depending on whether the kernel decreases faster or slower than an exponential (i.e. is thin-tailed vs. fat-tailed). To interpret and extend published results on the impact of long-distance dispersal on the genetic structure of populations, we examine a classification of dispersal kernels based on the shape of their tails and formally demonstrate qualitative differences among them that can influence the predicted diversity of a propagule pool sampled far from two distinct sources.ResultsWe show that a fat-tailed kernel leads asymptotically to a diverse propagule pool containing a balanced mixing of the propagules from the two sources, whereas a thin-tailed kernel results in all propagules originating from the closest source. We further show that these results hold for biologically relevant distances under certain circumstances, and in particular if the number of propagules is large enough, as would be the case for pollen or seeds.ConclusionTo understand the impact of long-distance dispersal on the structure and dynamics of a metapopulation, it might be less important to precisely estimate an average dispersal distance than to determine if the tail of the dispersal kernel is fatter or thinner than that of an exponential function. Depending solely on this characteristic, a metapopulation will behave similarly to an island model with a diverse immigrant pool or to a stepping-stone model with migrants from closest populations. Our results further help to understand why thin-tailed dispersal kernels lead to a colonization wave of constant speed, whereas fat-tailed dispersal kernels lead to a wave of increasing speed. Our results also suggest that the diversity of the pollen cloud of a mother plant should increase with increasing isolation for fat-tailed kernels, whereas it should decrease for thin-tailed kernels.

Modelling and estimating pollen movement in oilseed rape (Brassica napus) at the landscape scale using genetic markers

Understanding patterns of pollen movement at the landscape scale is important for establishing management rules following the release of genetically modified (GM) crops. We use here a mating model adapted to cultivated species to estimate dispersal kernels from the genotypes of the progenies of male‐sterile plants positioned at different sampling sites within a 10 × 10‐km oilseed rape production area. Half of the pollen clouds sampled by the male‐sterile plants originated from uncharacterized pollen sources that could consist of both large volunteer and feral populations, and fields within and outside the study area. The geometric dispersal kernel was the most appropriate to predict pollen movement in the study area. It predicted a much larger proportion of long‐distance pollination than previously fitted dispersal kernels. This best‐fitting mating model underestimated the level of differentiation among pollen clouds but could predict its spatial structure. The estimation method was validated on simulated genotypic data, and proved to provide good estimates of both the shape of the dispersal kernel and the rate and composition of pollen issued from uncharacterized pollen sources. The best dispersal kernel fitted here, the geometric kernel, should now be integrated into models that aim at predicting gene flow at the landscape level, in particular between GM and non‐GM crops.

Allee effect promotes diversity in traveling waves of colonization

Most mathematical studies on expanding populations have focused on the rate of range expansion of a population. However, the genetic consequences of population expansion remain an understudied body of theory. Describing an expanding population as a traveling wave solution derived from a classical reaction-diffusion model, we analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of its genetic structure. We show that the presence of an Allee effect (i.e., a lower per capita growth rate at low densities) drastically modifies genetic diversity, both in the colonization front and behind it. With an Allee effect (i.e., pushed colonization waves), all of the genetic diversity of a population is conserved in the colonization front. In the absence of an Allee effect (i.e., pulled waves), only the furthest forward members of the initial population persist in the colonization front, indicating a strong erosion of the diversity in this population. These results counteract commonly held notions that the Allee effect generally has adverse consequences. Our study contributes new knowledge to the surfing phenomenon in continuous models without random genetic drift. It also provides insight into the dynamics of traveling wave solutions and leads to a new interpretation of the mathematical notions of pulled and pushed waves.

High diversity of oilseed rape pollen clouds over an agro-ecosystem indicates long-distance dispersal

Estimating the frequency of long‐distance pollination is important in cultivated species, particularly to assess the risk of gene transfer following the release of genetically modified crops. For this purpose, we estimated the diversity and origin of fertilizing pollen in a 10 × 10 km French oilseed rape production area. First, the cultivar grown in each field was identified through surveys to farmers and using microsatellite markers. Examination of the seed set in fields indicated high rates of seed contamination (8.7%) and pollination from other sources (5%). Then, male‐sterile plants were scattered over the study area and their seed genotyped using the same markers. Most pollination was local: 65% of the seeds had a compatible sire in the closest field, i.e. at 50 or 300 m depending on site, but the nearest compatible field was found more than 1000 m away for 13% of the seeds. To assess the diversity of fertilizing pollen, each seed was assigned to the nearest putative siring cultivar. The observed diversity of pollen was then compared to that predicted by simulations using three empirical dispersal models with increasing proportion of long‐distance pollination. The diversity was sensitive to the dispersal kernel used in the simulations, fatter‐tailed functions predicting higher diversities. The dispersal kernel that was more consistent with our data predicted more long‐distance dispersal than the exponential function.

Comparing direct vs. indirect estimates of gene flow within a population of a scattered tree species

The comparison between historical estimates of gene flow, using variance in allelic frequencies, and contemporary estimates of gene flow, using parentage assignment, is expected to provide insights into ecological and evolutionary processes at work within and among populations. Genetic variation at six microsatellite loci was used to quantify genetic structure in the insect‐pollinated, animal‐dispersed, low‐density tree Sorbus torminalis L. Crantz, and to derive historical estimates of gene flow. The neighbourhood size and root‐mean‐squared dispersal distance inferred from seedling genotypes (Nb = 70 individuals, σe = 417 m) were similar to those inferred from adult genotypes (Nb = 114 individuals, σe = 472 m). We also used parentage analyses and a neighbourhood model approach after an evaluation of the statistical properties of this method on simulated data. From our data, we estimated even contributions of seed‐ and pollen‐mediated dispersal to the genetic composition of established seedlings, with both fat‐tailed pollen and seed dispersal kernels, and slightly higher mean distance of pollen dispersal (248 m) as compared to seed dispersal (135 m). The resulting contemporary estimate of gene dispersal distance (σc = 211 m) was ∼twofold smaller than the historical estimates. Besides different assumptions and statistical nuances of both approaches, this discrepancy is likely to reflect a recent restriction in the scale of gene flow which requires managers attention in a context of increasing forest fragmentation.

Assortative mating and differential male mating success in an ash hybrid zone population.

BackgroundThe structure and evolution of hybrid zones depend mainly on the relative importance of dispersal and local adaptation, and on the strength of assortative mating. Here, we study the influence of dispersal, temporal isolation, variability in phenotypic traits and parasite attacks on the male mating success of two parental species and hybrids by real-time pollen flow analysis. We focus on a hybrid zone population between the two closely related ash species Fraxinus excelsior L. (common ash) and F. angustifolia Vahl (narrow-leaved ash), which is composed of individuals of the two species and several hybrid types. This population is structured by flowering time: the F. excelsior individuals flower later than the F. angustifolia individuals, and the hybrid types flower in-between. Hybrids are scattered throughout the population, suggesting favorable conditions for their local adaptation. We estimate jointly the best-fitting dispersal kernel, the differences in male fecundity due to variation in phenotypic traits and level of parasite attack, and the strength of assortative mating due to differences in flowering phenology. In addition, we assess the effect of accounting for genotyping error on these estimations.ResultsWe detected a very high pollen immigration rate and a fat-tailed dispersal kernel, counter-balanced by slight phenological assortative mating and short-distance pollen dispersal. Early intermediate flowering hybrids, which had the highest male mating success, showed optimal sex allocation and increased selfing rates. We detected asymmetry of gene flow, with early flowering trees participating more as pollen donors than late flowering trees.ConclusionThis study provides striking evidence that long-distance gene flow alone is not sufficient to counter-act the effects of assortative mating and selfing. Phenological assortative mating and short-distance dispersal can create temporal and spatial structuring that appears to maintain this hybrid population. The asymmetry of gene flow, with higher fertility and increased selfing, can potentially confer a selective advantage to early flowering hybrids in the zone. In the event of climate change, hybridization may provide a means for F. angustifolia to further extend its range at the expense of F. excelsior.

Real-time patterns of pollen flow in the wild-service tree, Sorbus torminalis (Rosaceae). III. Mating patterns and the ecological maternal neighborhood

Understanding the role of mother plants as pollen recipients in shaping mating patterns is essential for understanding the evolution of populations and in particular to predict the consequence of habitat fragmentation. Here, we investigated variation in mating patterns due to maternal phenotypic traits, phenological variance, and landscape features in Sorbus torminalis, a hermaphroditic, insect-pollinated and low-density, European temperate forest tree. The diversity and composition of pollen clouds received by maternal trees in S. torminalis were mainly determined by their conspecific neighborhood: isolated individuals sample more diversity through more even paternal contributions, low relatedness among paternal genes, and high rates of long-distance pollen dispersal within their progenies. Maternal phenotypic traits related to pollinator attractiveness also had an effect, but only when competition was strong: in this case, larger mother trees with more flowers sampled more diversity. The floral architecture of S. torminalis, with multiple-seeded fruit, strongly shaped mating patterns, with higher levels of correlated paternity among seeds belonging to the same fruit (30% full sibs) than among seeds belonging to different fruits (14% full sibs). Finally, flowering phenology affected the distribution of diversity among maternal pollen clouds, but the earliest and latest mother trees did not receive less diversity of pollen than the others.