Eugene Nivorozhkin

Do anti-takeover devices affect the takeover likelihood or the takeover premium?

In this paper, we use Heckman selection models to analyse the relation between the likelihood of the firm becoming a takeover target, the takeover premium, and the use of anti-takeover devices. Ordinary least squares regressions suggest that anti-takeover devices, especially dual class shares, are associated with a higher takeover premium. However, we also document that anti-takeover devices reduce the likelihood that the firm will be taken over. When we control for the fact that takeover targets are selected, we do not find a significant relation between the takeover premium and dual class shares. Hence, our results suggest that the takeover premium is indeed influenced by private information about the likelihood of takeover.

The urban-rural divide in the perception of the poverty line: the case of Russia.

In this article, we analyse the differences in the perception of the poverty line between rural and urban settlements in the Russian Federation. We show that although the level of absolute poverty increases as the size of the settlement decreases, the level of subjective poverty moves in the opposite direction. These results have potential implications for targeting poverty in urban and rural areas.

The Role of Economic Crisis and Social Spending in Explaining Crime in Russia

The paper investigates crime rate dynamics and its determinants using a panel data set for the Russian regions over the period 1995-2007. We focus on the determinants of convergence and divergence of crime rates across regions, focusing on the periods of economic turbulence such as the 1998 financial crisis. We also simulate the impact of the 2008-10 financial crisis on crime rates in Russia and identify the impact of government spending on reducing crime. Real income, unemployment level, and income inequality are found to be the most important factors explaining the crime rates. High levels of urbanization are also closely linked to higher crime rates. We find that the observed convergence in the regional crime rates during the 1998 crisis was driven mainly by the deteriorating crime situation in the regions with relatively low crime rates. The finding allows us to draw policy conclusions with respect to the role of the anti-crisis government programs in reducing crime. With respect to the types of crime, our analysis confirms that economic and property crimes tend to be the most responsive to the changing economic conditions.

Selection Bias and Event Studies: The Case of Takeover Likelihood and Takeover Premium

In this paper we use Heckman selection models to analyze the relation between the likelihood of the firm becoming a takeover target, the takeover premium, and the use of dual class shares. Ordinary Least Squares regressions suggest that the use of dual class shares is associated with higher takeover premium. However, we also document that the use of dual class shares reduces the likelihood that the firm will be taken over. When we control for the fact that takeovers targets are selected we no longer find a significant relation between the takeover premium and the use of dual class shares. Hence, our results suggest that the takeover premium is indeed influenced by private information about the likelihood of takeover. Our results have implications for the analysis of abnormal returns at corporate events in general since cross-sectional tests of abnormal returns may be influenced by selection bias.