Eugene P. Paulo

Case study in modeling and simulation validation methodology

The military develops simulations to analyze nearly every aspect of defense. How accurate are these simulations and to what extent do they produce dependable results? Most guidance available to DoD analysts provides broad recommendations geared towards management and coordination of the validation processes. Here, we focus on practical validation from the analysts perspective in the form of a case study. The platform used is the theater missile defense (TMD) aspects of Extended Air Defense Simulation (EADSIM) and a new simulation called Wargame 2000. The focus is not to validate Wargame 2000 but to develop real, usable tools for analysis. Measures of effectiveness include defense battery search, engagement and intercept times against threat missiles. Insight is provided into developmental and data production issues making the validation process more effective and meaningful.

A Systems Design Exploration Approach that Illuminates Tradespaces Using Statistical Experimental Designs

This paper describes an approach that leverages computer simulation models and statistical experimental designs for exploration studies during the early conceptual design of a system. We apply the approach to a naval ship design problem and demonstrate how we can illuminate trade decisions among multiple design decisions and evaluation measures using a dynamic dashboard. After performing experimental designs on a collection of simulation models, we can fit statistical models that act as surrogates to these simulations. These surrogate models allow us to explore a wider variety of system alternatives rather than fixating on a narrow set of alternatives. The purpose of the approach is to simultaneously explore the operational and physical domains using statistical surrogate models in order to illuminate trade decisions between the systems operational effectiveness and physical design considerations.

Modeling force response to small boat attack against high value commercial ships

This study examines ways to prevent the success of a small boat attack (SBA) against a larger high value commercial vessel, or high value unit (HVU), through the utilization of an agent-based simulation. The geographic area of concern is the Straits of Malacca. An essential element of the scenario is the limited time available to act against the attackers. Subsequently, the two alternatives considered are the deployment of patrol craft, as well as the placement of well-armed sea marshals on each high value ship.

Simulation Analysis of a System to Defeat Maritime Improvised Explosive Devices (MIED) in a US Port

Although the risk of an attack in a US port could be considered a low-probability event, the importance ports and waterways play in domestic and global commerce demands timely and effective mitigation of the extremely high consequences associated with restrictions to port access should we face maritime improvised explosive devices (MIEDs) in our maritime transit system (MTS). In order to address the immediate response needed to defeat this threat, we used a systems engineering design methodology to define the problem, generated appropriate operational metrics, developed a series of system alternatives, and evaluated the alternatives through modeling and simulation analysis. These alternative systems, denoted as Adaptive Force Packages (AFPs), incorporate existing systems and technologies, emerging systems, and concepts under development that can be incorporated in the long term, while addressing the varying effects of port environments on sensors and neutralization assets.

An Integrated Systems Architecture to Provide Maritime Domain Protection

The focus of this research is to address the criticality and vulnerability of commercial shipping in the Straits of Mallacca by designing and evaluating competing systems architectures that could provide sufficient maritime domain protection. The category of primary concern was the introduction of a weapon of mass destruction (WMD) in a cargo container. The Maritime Domain Protection (MDP) physical architecture alternatives combined five separate systems: 1) a land-based cargo inspection system, 2) a sensor system, 3) a C3I (command and control, communications, and intelligence) system, 4) a force response system, and 5) a sea-based cargo inspection system. Individual models for each system were developed and combined into an overarching integrated architecture model to evaluate overall performance. Study results based on current technology showed that while solutions were found to effectively reduce risk in the WMD threat scenario, effective suppression came at great expense and included the participation of commercial shipping companies. A range of alternative cost-effective solutions were also found, but with limited performance. Future work involves using the developed architecture as a test bed for evaluating the overall impact and effectiveness of new technologies and research (such as “smart containers”) on MDP and homeland security.

Leveraging the DOD M&S Education Project for specialized army M&S Education

This paper describes our efforts to develop, deliver, and sustain two specialized courses, developed by faculty from Systems Engineering Department at the Naval Postgraduate School as part of a larger DoD M&S Education Project, on the topic of simulation for active Army and civilians. First, the “Advanced Simulation Course,” sponsored by the Simulation Proponent Division, office of the Army Modeling & Simulation Directorate, provides a non-technical M&S perspective that covers the significant M&S issues and M&S activities throughout the Acquisition Life Cycle. The second course is “M&S in Engineering Product Design and Development.” This course is intended for engineers at the Army Research Development and Engineering Center (ARDEC) and focuses on the role of M&S in the product development process. Students complete this course with a thorough understanding of the overall capabilities of M&S in supporting their product design from within the construct of an appropriate process that allows for problem formulation, analysis, and interpretation.

Architecture for comparing alternative designs of a tactical naval command and control system using discrete-event simulation

Research was conducted recently at Naval Postgraduate School focusing on the development of a system architecture for a tactical naval Command and Control (C2) system. The system architecture methodology started with describing an operational concept, moved to the co-development of the functional architecture and the physical architecture, and concluded with the development of a notional operational architecture. A portion of the contact prosecution process for a Surface Action Group (SAG) involved in securing local sea control was modeled in the discrete-event simulation software Arena®, and this effort is the focus of this paper. Simulations for both potential alternative designs were conducted. Finally, a comparison of the simulation results demonstrated the feasibility of the developed architecture framework to compare alternative designs of the C2 system.

System of systems architecture feasibility analysis to support tradespace exploration

The exploration of a system of systems (SoS) tradespace is made much more efficient and effective with a method to first automatically screen a large number of SoS designs for feasibility. This is because not every combination of constituent systems is capable of forming a viable SoS, much less form a SoS that exhibits the desired emergent behavior(s). The SoS Architecture Feasibility Assessment Model (SoS-AFAM) assesses the feasibility of the physical communications, process, and organizational architectures of a SoS. The model applies algorithms based on the minimum requirements for viability relevant to all SoS such as connectivity and completeness. We present a case study to demonstrate how the algorithm can greatly prune the SoS tradespace of infeasible SoS design points, which can increase the efficiency of design exploration.

Analysing system of systems performance of a carrier strike group conducting anti-submarine warfare

The operation of US and Allied military forces freely and safely across the worlds oceans remains a paramount goal of the US Navy, often to be carried out through the deployment of a carrier strike group (CSG). This paper examines the need for an improved anti-submarine warfare (ASW) system to protect a CSG, focusing on the design of an ASW system that is able to thwart an attack through effective, timely, and precise engagement based on the use of tactically significant detection, localisation, tracking and classification of threat submarines. This effort results in the development of system functions and objectives, appropriate metrics, an operational concept, several competing physical architectural alternatives, and conduct of trade-off analysis regarding system performance. Primarily, the focus is on the operational performance of the competing physical architectures, which is defined as the need to detect and defeat an enemy submarine during a typical CSG mission. Potential ASW and CSG components are described, as well as an assessment of several alternative ASW systems within the CSG system of systems, a brief operational concept, and the specifics of the performance modelling effort to include results.

Effectiveness of naval surface fire support to the army brigade commander in a littoral campaign

Since the end of the Cold War, the Army has engaged in an unprecedented number of joint contingency operations hinting at future missions aimed at protecting U.S. interests worldwide. To engage and defeat future threats to our national security, the Army must transform itself into a more strategically responsive, lethal force. This paper analyzes the effectiveness of naval surface fire support (NSFS), which can help lighten the force by providing support for brigade-sized units. The Fire Support Simulation Tool (FSST) simulates the employment of various indirect fire courses of action (COAs) for analysis. Comparing the utility of several well-constructed COAs using the FSSTs output can help decision-makers determine the effectiveness of NSFS for specific campaigns. The results of this analysis conclude that there is strong quantitative and analytical evidence to support the effectiveness of NSFS to an Army brigade commander engaged in a littoral campaign.