Eum Han

Prediction Models for the Severity of Traffic Accidents on Expressway On- and Off-Ramps

PURPOSES: Because expressway ramps are very complex segments where diverse roadway design elements dynamically change within relatively short length, drivers on ramps are required to drive their cars carefully for safety. Especially, ramps on expressways are designed to guarantee driving at high speed so that the risk and severity of traffic accidents on expressway ramps may be higher and more deadly than other facilities on expressways. Safe deceleration maneuvers are required on off-ramps, whereas safe acceleration maneuvers are necessary on onramps. This difference in required maneuvers may contribute to dissimilar patterns and severity of traffic accidents by ramp types. Therefore, this study was aimed at developing prediction models of the severity of traffic accidents on expressway on- and off-ramps separately in order to consider dissimilar patterns and severity of traffic accidents according to types of ramps. METHODS: Four-year-long traffic accident data between 2007 and 2010 were utilized to distinguish contributing design elements in conjunction with AADT and ramp length. The prediction models were built using the negative binomial regression model consisting of the severity of traffic accident as a dependent variable and contributing design elements as in independent variables. RESULTS: The developed regression models were evaluated using the traffic accident data of the ramps which was not used in building the models by comparing actual and estimated severity of traffic accidents. Conclusively, the average prediction error rates of on-ramps and offramps were 30.5% and 30.8% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction models for the severity of traffic accidents on expressway on- and off-ramps will be useful in enhancing the safety on expressway ramps as well as developing design guidelines for expressway ramps.

Comparison of the Methodologies for Calculating Expressway Space Mean Speed Using Vehicular Trajectory Information from a Radar Detector

This study was initiated to evaluate the performance of methodologies to estimate the space mean speed(SMS) using the time mean speed(TMS) which was collected from the vehicle detection system(VDS) in expressways. To this end, the methodologies presented in prior studies were firstly summarized. It is very hard to achieve exact SMSs and TMSs due to mechanical and communication errors in the field. Thus, a microscopic traffic simulation model was utilized to evaluated the performance. As a result, the harmonic mean and volume-distance weighted harmonic mean were close to the SMS in the case in which the TMSs of individual vehicles were used. However, when the 30-second-interval aggregated TMS were used, the volume-distance weighted harmonic mean was outstanding. In this study, a radar detector was installed in the Joongbu expressway to collect the SMS. The trajectory of individual vehicles collected from the detector were used to calculate the SMS, which was compared with the estimates using other methodologies selected in this study. As a result, the volume-distance weighted mean was turned out to be close to the SMS. However, as the congestion becomes severe. the deviation between the two speed becomes bigger.

Analysis of the Effectiveness of Providing National Highway Detour Information via Variable Message Signs on Expressway Operations - Case of Yeongdong Expressway -

PURPOSES : Expressways experience chronic and recurring congestion, especially during weekends and holidays, because of the increased demands for leisure-related travel. The alternatives to solve chronic and recurring congestion may be three-fold: (1) physical expansion of expressway capacities, (2) road pricing, and (3) temporal and spatial distribution of traffic demands. Among these, the third alternative may be the most cost-effective method for the Korea Expressway Corporation (KEC) that can be achieved by using the existing ITS infrastructure. METHODS : KEC initiated a pilot study in which the traffic on congested expressways was managed by providing traffic condition information (i.e., travel times) of neighboring national highways for taking detours via variable message signs (VMS). This study aimed to estimate the detour rate, and the two pilot studies on Seohaean and Yeongdong expressways yielded many benefits. RESULTS : It was revealed that the total length of congestion segments decreased by 7.8 km, and the average travel speed increased by 5.3 km/h. CONCLUSIONS : Based on these findings, it was concluded that the propagation of detour information via VMSs during congestion hours can help reduce congestion on expressways and increase the benefits of the entire network.

Performance Comparison of Signalized Intersections Analysis Tools in Estimating Control Delays

PURPOSES : The control delay in seconds per vehicle is the most important traffic operational index to evaluate the level of service of signalized intersections. Thus, it is very critical to calculate accurate control delay because it is used as a basic quantitative evidence for decision makings regarding to investments on traffic facilities. The control delay consists of time-in-queue delay, acceleration delay, and deceleration delay so that it is technically difficult to directly measure it from fields. Thus, diverse analysis tools, including CORSIM, SYNCHRO, T7F, VISTRO, etc. have been utilized so far. However, each analysis tool may use a unique methodology in calculating control delays. Therefore, the estimated values of control delays may be different by the selection of an analysis tool, which has provided difficulties to traffic engineers in making solid judgments. METHODS:This study was initiated to verify the feasibility of diverse analysis tools, including HCM methodology, CORSIM, SYNCHRO, T7F, VISTRO, in calculating control delays by comparing estimated control delays with that measured from a field. RESULTS : As a result, the selected tools produced quite different values of control delay. In addition, the control delay value estimated using a calibrated CORSIM model was closest to that measured from the field. CONCLUSIONS: First, through the in-depth experiment, it was explicitly verified that the estimated values of control delay may depend on the selection of an analysis tool. Second, among the diverse tools, the value of control delay estimated using the calibrated microscopic traffic simulation model was most close to that measured from the field. Conclusively, analysts should take into account the variability of control delay values according to the selection of a tool in the case of signalized intersection analysis.