Eva Mueller

The Economic and Demographic Status of Female-Headed Households in Rural Botswana

Analyzes the economic and demographic status of female headed households in Botswana where insufficient economic opportunities force many men to live and work away from home. The analysis is based on the Rural Income Distribution Survey conducted in 1974-75 by the Central Statistical Office of Botswana in which 957 households containing 6475 individuals were interviewed once a month for 23 months. The relevant items surveyed were age and sex of household nembers amount and sources of income identity and value of assets use of time extent of education and sex of perceived head of household. The analysis recognizes 4 types of households: male head with male aged 20-64 present (452); male head with no male 20-64 present (77); female head with male aged 20-64 present (131); and female head with no male aged 20-64 present (277). The primary analysis consists of a comparison of the 1st and 4th of these groups; categories 2 and 3 are intermediate positions and their characteristics are less clear cut. The income distribution in rural Botswana is more unequal than in many other developing countries with female headed households faring especialy poorly. On a per adult equivalent basis the welfare attained by members of female headed households is nearly 25% lower than that attained in male headed households. Such is the case despite the fact that women in Botswana have been shown to compare favorably with men in regard to education willingness to work agricultural know-how and entrepreneurial ability. Reasons for womens lower economic status in this country are discussed and policy suggestions to overcome this discrepancy are made.

The value and allocation of time in rural Botswana

Abstract Time use data indicate that there is substantial surplus labor in rural areas of Botswana, with the incidence of underutilization varying by age, sex, and asset position. Time allocations are influenced by economic incentives, i.e., income and productivity effects. The more productive capital the household has, the more productive work its members perform, particularly its children. The positive productivity effect of capital on economic work somewhat outweighs its negative income effect. Time allocations also are constrained by a culturally determined division of labor by age and sex, which however shows some flexibility at the margin.

Ten Years of Consumer Attitude Surveys: Their Forecasting Record

Abstract Since 1951 the Survey Research Center has conducted surveys of consumer optimism and confidence two to four times a year in an attempt to improve methods of forecasting discretionary spending by consumers. The predictive success of these attitude surveys is tested here in conjunction with a number of financial variables by means of time series regressions covering the years 1952–61. The results indicate that attitude measurements contain information not obtainable from a simple combination of financial and business cycle indicators. The explanatory value of the Survey Research Center Index of Consumer Attitudes is consistently good in the sense that a number of alternative formulations of the time series regressions lead to the same conclusion: Attitudes contribute significantly to our ability to account for fluctuations in durable goods spending, particularly spending on new cars, after allowance is made for changes in the financial situation of consumers.

Public Attitudes Toward Fiscal Programs

I. Sample surveys as a tool for measuring attitudes toward fiscal policies, 211. — II. Some survey findings, 213. — III. The congruence and stability of fiscal preferences, 223. — IV. Group differences in attitudes toward fiscal policies, 228.

Economic motives for family limitation: a study conducted in Taiwan.

A survey financed by the Population Council and the Population Studies Center at the University of Michigan was undertaken in Taiwan in 1969 to examine linkages between economic change and fertility change at the family level. The study was based on personal interviews with a cross-section of 2200 Taiwanese men living island wide whose wives interviewed 20 months earlier had provided detailed information on the couples fertility histories and contraceptive use. The interviews with the men brought this information up to date but was devoted largely to inquiry on economic matters. The wives were all 42 years old or younger. Parts I and II of the paper are descriptive and methodological respectively. Parts III and IV focus on socioeconomic and demographic factors as possible determinants of contraceptive use and consequent family size. In short economic considerations do affect fertility decision. Couples tend to practice stricter fertility control as a function to a large extent of educational advancement and to a lesser extent of rising income increasing exposure to mass media and increasing availability of consumer goods. These factors seem more important than the shift per se from agriculture to industry and the resulting urbanization. The influence of economic attitudes is strongest among couples under age 30. Individuals often confront family planning with ambivalent attitudes; the small family has economic advantages but the large family has certain emotional and traditional appeals.

The relation of income to fertility decisions in Taiwan.

A number of alternative measures of income were used to determine relationships between income and fertility in Taiwan: current family income longer-term economic status (5-year periods) direction of income changehusbands income alone and relative income. None of these showed any relationship to fertility behavior. Families who reported they were worse off economically than they were 5 years ago blamed the many expenses of children but the income was the result of the fertility not the fertility the results of the income. Path analysis was then used to separate direct income effects from indirect effects through attitude differentials. All 4 analyzed show a small correlation with income after controlling for education and demographic characteristics: perceived economic benefits from child rearing educational aspirations desire for consumer goods and fear of child mortality. A 5th scale sensitivity to cost of rearing children was not used since parents in all income groups complained equally about the high cost of children. A growing interest in new consumer goods and services more productive investments and outlays to enhance status appear to diminish relative attractiveness of high-parity children but income is just 1 factor bringing about this transformation. Yet neither the analysis of relative income nor the path analysis provide evidence that a positive relation between income and fertility is masked by a negative relation via changes in tastes and attitudes. Rather a marginal negative relation between income and fertility is diminished when tastes and attitudes pertaining to the economics of family size are taken into account. More data regarding school and other costs of rearing a marginal child cost of time spent attending school work contributions of children in various settings and data on who shares earnings with whom are necessary for better study of the relationship between the economy of the family and fertility.

Economic motives for family limitation

Abstract Taiwan can boast one of the most rapid rates of economic development in the world over the past 20 years. Taiwan is also in the midst of the demographic transition. The nature of the connection between economic development and the onset and progress of the fertility decline is far from clear, however. Rather than explore the relation between income and fertility change, this paper will be concerned with some of the economic motivations which may be responsible for fertility decline during the demographic transition. Inquiries in this area have been handicapped by having to rely on aggregative or on household data which included only a very limited set of economic variables (other than income) along with demographic data. In order to re-examine the linkages between economic change and fertility change at the family level, a special survey was conducted in Taiwan in 1969. While recognizing that economic factors are not wholly, perhaps not even primarily, responsible for the lowering of the birth rate, the central interest of this paper is the complex of cost and benefit considerations which may contribute to a decline of the rate, using the new data for Taiwan.

Consumer Reactions to Inflation

Introduction, 246. — Inflationary stimuli and consumer perceptions regarding price trends, 248. — Attitudes towards inflation, 251. — Impact on investment choices, 256. — Impact on consumer spending, 257. — Conclusions, 261.

A poverty profile for rural Botswana

Abstract Recognizing that for policy purposes it is important to learn in what ways households that are poor differ from households that have a more adequate income and recognizing that these differences may be cause or consequence of low economic status, this paper compiles a ‘poverty profile’ of rural Botswana. The data are taken from the Rural Income Distribution Survey conducted in 1975 by the Central Statistical Office of the Government of Botswana - a sample of 950 randomly selected households in 20 rural areas. The survey data enable the authors to determine how close each household comes to meeting its basic requirements. The paper begins by explaining the derivation of ‘poverty income ratios’; it then relates the PIRs to the demographic characteristics of households, their education, location and asset holdings. There follows a description of differences in time use and sources of income among the five poverty ratio groups. The authors conclude with a discussion of the implications for policies aimed at the alleviation of poverty.

The measurement of income in fertility surveys in developing countries.

Against the background of the interest in relating the influence of economic factors to fertility especially in the developing world this study sets out to determine a) whether a detailed sequence of questions about income components yields significantly better results than a shortcut approach; and b) to what extent the relation between income and fertility may be distorted when rough approximations of income are relied upon. 3 surveys conducted in Taiwan between 1967 and 1970 shed light on these questions. They are based on a sample of 2200 couples of childbearing age who were interviewed 3 times. In the first interview the wife was asked to estimate their monthly income which was then converted to a yearly basis (YW). 20 months later the husband was asked detailed questions about his income (YH). 8 months later the wife was interviewed again. This time she was asked specific questions about expenditures. This rough expenditure measure was converted to an annual basis (EW). None of the estimates agreed. Comparison with outside data revealed that EW came closest with YH only slightly behind. Even with some discrepancies attributed to misunderstanding and inadequate information there does seem to be a relationship between discrepancies and socioeconomic characteristics. No appreciable influence of income on current or desired family size could be found. However the affluent did appear to use conception to a greater degree. The lack of a relationship between income and current and desired fertility does not seem to be due to the poor quality of income measurement. However when there is a relationship as between income and contraceptive use errors in income measures can weaken the findings. When income data obtained by shortcut methods are analyzed with socioeconomic variables as part of a more complex model there is danger of further errors as the Taiwan data suggested that there are biases in income reporting associated with aeducation type of employment and the number of living children. The authors conclude that it is worthwhile to devote care and time to income measurement.