Eva Negri

Risk Factors for Falls in Community-dwelling Older People A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background: Falls are the main cause of accidental death in persons aged 65 years or older. Methods: Using MEDLINE and previous reviews, we searched for prospective studies investigating risk factors for falls among community-dwelling older people. For risk factors investigated by at least 5 studies in a comparable way, we computed pooled odds ratios (ORs) using random-effects models, with a test for heterogeneity. Results: A total of 74 studies met the inclusion criteria and 31 risk factors were considered, including sociodemographic, mobility, sensory, psychologic, and medical factors and medication use. The strongest associations were found for history of falls (OR = 2.8 for all fallers; OR = 3.5 for recurrent fallers), gait problems (OR = 2.1; 2.2), walking aids use (OR = 2.2; 3.1), vertigo (OR = 1.8; 2.3), Parkinson disease (OR = 2.7; 2.8), and antiepileptic drug use (OR = 1.9; 2.7). For most other factors, the ORs were moderately above 1. ORs were generally higher for recurrent fallers than for all fallers. For some factors, there was substantial heterogeneity among studies. For some important factors (eg, balance and muscle weakness), we did not compute a summary estimate because the measures used in various studies were not comparable. Conclusions: This meta-analysis provides comprehensive evidence-based assessment of risk factors for falls in older people, confirming their multifactorial etiology. Some nonspecific indicators of high baseline risk were also strong predictors of the risk of falling.

Recent patterns in gastric cancer: A global overview

Until the mid‐1990s, gastric cancer has been the first cause of cancer death worldwide, although rates had been declining for several decades and gastric cancer has become a relatively rare cancer in North America and in most Northern and Western Europe, but not in Eastern Europe, Russia and selected areas of Central and South America or East Asia. We analyzed gastric cancer mortality in Europe and other areas of the world from 1980 to 2005 using joinpoint regression analysis, and provided updated site‐specific incidence rates from 51 selected registries. Over the last decade, the annual percent change (APC) in mortality rate was around −3, −4% for the major European countries. The APC were similar for the Republic of Korea (APC = −4.3%), Australia (−3.7%), the USA (−3.6%), Japan (−3.5%), Ukraine (−3%) and the Russian Federation (−2.8%). In Latin America, the decline was less marked, but constant with APC around −1.6% in Chile and Brazil, −2.3% in Argentina and Mexico and −2.6% in Colombia. Cancers in the fundus and pylorus are more common in high incidence and mortality areas and have been declining more than cardia gastric cancer. Steady downward trends persist in gastric cancer mortality worldwide even in middle aged population, and hence further appreciable declines are likely in the near future.

Determinants of 6-month mortality in survivors of myocardial infarction after thrombolysis. Results of the GISSI-2 data base. The Ad hoc Working Group of the Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Sopravvivenza nell'Infarto Miocardico (GISSI)-2 Data Base.

BackgroundCurrent knowledge of risk assessment in survivors of myocardial infarction is largely based on data gathered before the advent of thrombolysis. It must be determined whether and to what extent available information and proposed criteria of prognostication are applicable in the thrombolytic era. Methods and ResultsWe reassessed risk prediction in the 10 219 survivors of myocardial infarction with follow-up data available (ie, 98% of the total) who had been enrolled in the GISSI-2 trial, relying on a set of prespecified variables. The 3.5% 6-month all-cause mortality rate of these patients compared with the higher value of 4.6% found in the corresponding GISSI-1 cohort, originally allocated to streptokinase therapy, indicates a 24% reduction in postdischarge 6-month mortality. On multivariate analysis (Cox model), the following variables were predictors of 6-month all-cause mortality: ineligibility for exercise test for both cardiac (relative risk [RR], 3.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.36-4.62) and noncardiac reasons (RR, 3.28; 95% CI, 2.23-4.72), early left ventricular failure (RR, 2.41; 95% CI, 1.87-3.09), echocardiographic evidence of recovery phase left ventricular dysfunction (RR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.78-2.98), advanced (more than 70 years) age (RR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.43 -2.30), electrical instability (ie, frequent and/or complex ventricular arrhythmias) (RR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.32-2.19), late left ventricular failure (RR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.17-2.03), previous myocardial infarction (RR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.14-1.89), and a history of treated hypertension (RR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.05-1.65). Early post-myocardial infarction angina, a positive exercise test, female sex, history of angina, history of insulin-dependent diabetes, and anterior site of myocardial infarction were not risk predictors. On further multivariate analysis, performed on 8315 patients with the echocardiographic indicator of left ventricular dysfunction available, only previous myocardial infarction was not retained as an independent risk predictor. ConclusionA decline in 6-month mortality of myocardial infarction survivors, seen within 6 hours of symptom onset, has been observed in recent years. Ineligibility for exercise test, early left ventricular failure, and recovery-phase left ventricular dysfunction are the most powerful (RR, >2) predictors of 6-month mortality among patients recovering from myocardial infarction after thrombolysis. Qualitative variables reflecting residual myocardial ischemia do not appear to be risk predictors. The lack of an independent adverse influence of early post-myocardial infarction angina on 6-month survival represents a major difference between this study and those of the prethrombolytic era.

VALIDATION OF A FOOD-FREQUENCY QUESTIONNAIRE TO ASSESS DIETARY INTAKES IN CANCER STUDIES IN ITALY RESULTS FOR SPECIFIC NUTRIENTS

The validity of a 77-item food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ) developed for a multicenter case-control study on diet and cancer in Italy was assessed. Trained interviewers administered the same FFQ to 452 volunteers from three Italian provinces (Pordenone, Genoa, and Forli) completed in two different seasons, at an interval of 3 to 10 months. For 395 (130 males, 265 females; median age = 52 years; range = 35 to 69 years) volunteers, two 7-day dietary (7-DD) records were available. Average intake obtained by means of the FFQ was overestimated by approximately 18% in comparison with the corresponding values based on the two 7-DD records (reference method). Pearson partial correlation coefficients, adjusted for total energy intake between the nutrient intakes assessed by the FFQ and reference method, ranged from 0.19 for vegetable fat to 0.64 for sugar (median value r = 0.46). The unadjusted deattenuated coefficients, which took into account the interindividual variability of consumption, estimated by means of the two 7-DD records, ranged from 0.29 for vegetable fat to 0.72 for starch (median value r = 0.54). The proportion of subjects correctly classified within the lowest two quintiles ranged between 59% for vegetable fat and vitamin E, and 96% for alcohol, and those correctly classified within the highest two quintiles ranged between 44% for vegetable fat and 94% for alcohol. The average proportion of subjects correctly classified within one quintile was 73%. These data indicate that this FFQ provides valid estimates of intakes for major nutrients, comparable to those reported from other studies in North America and other European countries.

Family history and the risk of stomach and colorectal cancer.

Background. The role of a family history of selected neoplasms in first‐degree relatives in the risk of gastrointestinal cancers has been investigated, but requires further quantification.

A pooled analysis of case–control studies of thyroid cancer: cigarette smoking and consumption of alcohol, coffee, and tea

Objective: To analyze the role of smoking, alcohol, coffee and tea in relation to thyroid cancer, we conducted a pooled analysis of 14 case–control studies conducted in the United States, Europe, and Asia. Methods: The sample consisted of 2725 thyroid cancer cases (2247 females, 478 males) and 4776 controls (3699 females, 1077 males). Conditional logistic regression with stratification on study, age at diagnosis, and gender was used to compute odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Results: Thyroid cancer risk was reduced in persons who had ever smoked. The relationship was more pronounced in current smokers (OR = 0.6, 95% CI = 0.6–0.7) than former smokers (OR = 0.9, 95% CI = 0.8–1.1). There were significant trends of reduced risk with greater duration and frequency of smoking. For consumption of wine and beer, there was a significant trend of decreasing thyroid cancer risk (p = 0.02) that was not maintained after adjustment for current smoking (p = 0.12). Thyroid cancer risk was not associated with consumption of coffee or tea. These findings were consistent in both gender-specific and histology-specific (papillary and follicular) analyses. Conclusions: Pooled analyses of these geographically diverse case–control data indicate a reduced thyroid cancer risk associated with current smoking. A reduced risk associated with alcohol was eliminated after adjustment for smoking, and caffeinated beverages did not alter thyroid cancer risk.

Worldwide trends in gastric cancer mortality (1980-2011), with predictions to 2015, and incidence by subtype.

Gastric cancer incidence and mortality decreased substantially over the last decades in most countries worldwide, with differences in the trends and distribution of the main topographies across regions. To monitor recent mortality trends (1980-2011) and to compute short-term predictions (2015) of gastric cancer mortality in selected countries worldwide, we analysed mortality data provided by the World Health Organization. We also analysed incidence of cardia and non-cardia cancers using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (2003-2007). The joinpoint regression over the most recent calendar periods gave estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) around -3% for the European Union (EU) and major European countries, as well as in Japan and Korea, and around -2% in North America and major Latin American countries. In the United States of America (USA), EU and other major countries worldwide, the EAPC, however, were lower than in previous years. The predictions for 2015 show that a levelling off of rates is expected in the USA and a few other countries. The relative contribution of cardia and non-cardia gastric cancers to the overall number of cases varies widely, with a generally higher proportion of cardia cancers in countries with lower gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates (e.g. the USA, Canada and Denmark). Despite the favourable mortality trends worldwide, in some countries the declines are becoming less marked. There still is the need to control Helicobacter pylori infection and other risk factors, as well as to improve diagnosis and management, to further reduce the burden of gastric cancer.

Annual or biennial CT screening versus observation in heavy smokers: 5-year results of the MILD trial.

The efficacy and cost-effectiveness of low-dose spiral computed tomography (LDCT) screening in heavy smokers is currently under evaluation worldwide. Our screening program started with a pilot study on 1035 volunteers in Milan in 2000 and was followed up in 2005 by a randomized trial comparing annual or biennial LDCT with observation, named Multicentric Italian Lung Detection. This included 4099 participants, 1723 randomized to the control group, 1186 to biennial LDCT screening, and 1190 to annual LDCT screening. Follow-up was stopped in November 2011, with 9901 person-years for the pilot study and 17 621 person-years for Multicentric Italian Lung Detection. Forty-nine lung cancers were detected by LDCT (20 in biennial and 29 in the annual arm), of which 17 were identified at baseline examination; 63% were of stage I and 84% were surgically resectable. Stage distribution and resection rates were similar in the two LDCT arms. The cumulative 5-year lung cancer incidence rate was 311/100 000 in the control group, 457 in the biennial, and 620 in the annual LDCT group (P=0.036); lung cancer mortality rates were 109, 109, and 216/100 000 (P=0.21), and total mortality rates were 310, 363, and 558/100 000, respectively (P=0.13). Total mortality in the pilot study was similar to that observed in the annual LDCT arm at 5 years. There was no evidence of a protective effect of annual or biennial LDCT screening. Furthermore, a meta-analysis of the four published randomized trials showed similar overall mortality in the LDCT arms compared with the control arm.

Mechanisms of Disease: the epidemiology of bladder cancer

Mortality from bladder cancer has shown downward trends over the last 2 decades in several western European countries (albeit 10–15 years later than similar trends in the US), but is still increasing in some eastern European countries. Tobacco smoking and occupational exposure to aromatic amines are the two major established environmental risk factors for bladder cancer. Controlling exposure to these factors has been an important contributor to the reduction in bladder cancer mortality, particularly among men. Diet could influence bladder carcinogenesis, as many compounds contained in foods—and their metabolites—are excreted through the urinary tract. Fruit and vegetable consumption was inversely related with bladder cancer in many studies, but no consistent association has emerged between intake of related micronutrients and reduced risk of bladder cancer. Other widely investigated lifestyle habits are probably not associated with risk of developing bladder cancer (e.g. coffee consumption, artificial sweetener use, hair dyes) or are difficult to assess (e.g. fluid intake). Infections and stones in the urinary tract might cause chronic irritation of the bladder epithelium, and thus increase bladder cancer risk. First-degree relatives of bladder cancer patients have a 50–100% increased relative risk of developing the disease, a risk that could be even higher when the proband is diagnosed at an early age.

Trends in mortality from hepatocellular carcinoma in Europe, 1980‐2004

Upward trends in mortality from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were recently reported in the United States and Japan. Comprehensive analyses of most recent data for European countries are not available. Age‐standardized (world standard) HCC rates per 100,000 (at all ages, at age 20‐44, and age 45‐59 years) were computed for 23 European countries over the period 1980‐2004 using data from the World Health Organization. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify significant changes in trends, and annual percent change were computed. Male overall mortality from HCC increased in Austria, Germany, Switzerland, and other western countries, while it significantly decreased over recent years in countries such as France and Italy, which had large upward trends until the mid‐1990s. In the early 2000s, among countries allowing distinction between HCC and other liver cancers, the highest HCC rates in men were in France (6.8/100,000), Italy (6.7), and Switzerland (5.9), whereas the lowest ones were in Norway (1.0), Ireland (0.8), and Sweden (0.7). In women, a slight increase in overall HCC mortality was observed in Spain and Switzerland, while mortality decreased in several other European countries, particularly since the mid‐1990s. In the early 2000s, female HCC mortality rates were highest in Italy (1.9/100,000), Switzerland (1.8), and Spain (1.5) and lowest in Greece, Ireland, and Sweden (0.3). In most countries, trends at age 45‐59 years were consistent with overall ones, whereas they were more favorable at age 20‐44 years in both sexes. Conclusion: HCC mortality remains largely variable across Europe. Favorable trends were observed in several European countries mainly over the last decade, particularly in women and in young adults. (HEPATOLOGY 2008.)