Evan H. Girvetz

Climate Change and Maize Yield in Iowa

Climate is changing across the world, including the major maize-growing state of Iowa in the USA. To maintain crop yields, farmers will need a suite of adaptation strategies, and choice of strategy will depend on how the local to regional climate is expected to change. Here we predict how maize yield might change through the 21st century as compared with late 20th century yields across Iowa, USA, a region representing ideal climate and soils for maize production that contributes substantially to the global maize economy. To account for climate model uncertainty, we drive a dynamic ecosystem model with output from six climate models and two future climate forcing scenarios. Despite a wide range in the predicted amount of warming and change to summer precipitation, all simulations predict a decrease in maize yields from late 20th century to middle and late 21st century ranging from 15% to 50%. Linear regression of all models predicts a 6% state-averaged yield decrease for every 1°C increase in warm season average air temperature. When the influence of moisture stress on crop growth is removed from the model, yield decreases either remain the same or are reduced, depending on predicted changes in warm season precipitation. Our results suggest that even if maize were to receive all the water it needed, under the strongest climate forcing scenario yields will decline by 10–20% by the end of the 21st century.

How climate change affects extremes in maize and wheat yield in two cropping regions

AbstractDownscaled climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to force a dynamic vegetation agricultural model (Agro-IBIS) and simulate yield responses to historical climate and two future emissions scenarios for maize in the U.S. Midwest and wheat in southeastern Australia. In addition to mean changes in yield, the frequency of high- and low-yield years was related to changing local hydroclimatic conditions. Particular emphasis was on the seasonal cycle of climatic variables during extreme-yield years and links to crop growth.While historically high (low) yields in Iowa tend to occur during years with anomalous wet (dry) growing season, this is exacerbated in the future. By the end of the twenty-first century, the multimodel mean (MMM) of growing season temperatures in Iowa is projected to increase by more than 5°C, and maize yield is projected to decrease by 18%. For southeastern Australia, the frequency of low-yield years rises dramatically in ...

The Impact of Projected Climate Change Scenarios on Nitrogen Yield at a Regional Scale for the Contiguous United States

Improved understanding of the potential regional impacts of projected climatic changes on nitrogen yield is needed to inform water resources management throughout the United States (U.S.). The objective of this research is to look broadly at watersheds in the contiguous U.S. to assess the potential regional impact of changes in precipitation (P) and air temperature (T) on nitrogen yield. The SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes model and downscaled P and T outputs from 14 general circulation models were used to explore impacts on nitrogen yield. Results of the analysis suggest that projected changes in P and T will decrease nitrogen yield for the majority of the contiguous U.S., including the watersheds of the Chesapeake Bay and Gulf of Mexico. Some regions, however, such as the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, are projected to face climatic conditions that, according to the model results, may increase nitrogen yield. Combining the projections of climate-driven changes in nitrogen yield with projected changes in watershed nitrogen inputs could help water resource managers develop regionally specific, long-term strategies to mitigate nitrogen pollution.