Evangelos Kontopantelis

Effect of financial incentives on inequalities in the delivery of primary clinical care in England: analysis of clinical activity indicators for the quality and outcomes framework.

BACKGROUND The quality and outcomes framework is a financial incentive scheme that remunerates general practices in the UK for their performance against a set of quality indicators. Incentive schemes can increase inequalities in the delivery of care if practices in affluent areas are more able to respond to the incentives than are those in deprived areas. We examined the relation between socioeconomic inequalities and delivered quality of clinical care in the first 3 years of this scheme. METHODS We analysed data extracted automatically from clinical computing systems for 7637 general practices in England, data from the UK census, and data for characteristics of practices and patients from the 2006 general medical statistics database. Practices were grouped into equal-sized quintiles on the basis of area deprivation in their locality. We calculated overall levels of achievement, defined as the proportion of patients who were deemed eligible by the practices for whom the targets were achieved, for 48 clinical activity indicators during the first 3 years of the incentive scheme (from 2004-05 to 2006-07). FINDINGS Median overall reported achievement was 85.1% (IQR 79.0-89.1) in year 1, 89.3% (86.0-91.5) in year 2, and 90.8% (88.5-92.6) in year 3. In year 1, area deprivation was associated with lower levels of achievement, with median achievement ranging from 86.8% (82.2-89.6) for quintile 1 (least deprived) to 82.8% (75.2-87.8) for quintile 5 (most deprived). Between years 1 and 3, median achievement increased by 4.4% for quintile 1 and by 7.6% for quintile 5, and the gap in median achievement narrowed from 4.0% to 0.8% during this period. Increase in achievement during this time was inversely associated with practice performance in previous years (p<0.0001), but was not associated with area deprivation (p=0.062). INTERPRETATION Our results suggest that financial incentive schemes have the potential to make a substantial contribution to the reduction of inequalities in the delivery of clinical care related to area deprivation.

Effect of financial incentives on incentivised and non-incentivised clinical activities: longitudinal analysis of data from the UK Quality and Outcomes Framework

Objective To investigate whether the incentive scheme for UK general practitioners led them to neglect activities not included in the scheme. Design Longitudinal analysis of achievement rates for 42 activities (23 included in incentive scheme, 19 not included) selected from 428 identified indicators of quality of care. Setting 148 general practices in England (653 500 patients). Main outcome measures Achievement rates projected from trends in the pre-incentive period (2000-1 to 2002-3) and actual rates in the first three years of the scheme (2004-5 to 2006-7). Results Achievement rates improved for most indicators in the pre-incentive period. There were significant increases in the rate of improvement in the first year of the incentive scheme (2004-5) for 22 of the 23 incentivised indicators. Achievement for these indicators reached a plateau after 2004-5, but quality of care in 2006-7 remained higher than that predicted by pre-incentive trends for 14 incentivised indicators. There was no overall effect on the rate of improvement for non-incentivised indicators in the first year of the scheme, but by 2006-7 achievement rates were significantly below those predicted by pre-incentive trends. Conclusions There were substantial improvements in quality for all indicators between 2001 and 2007. Improvements associated with financial incentives seem to have been achieved at the expense of small detrimental effects on aspects of care that were not incentivised.

Influence of initial severity of depression on effectiveness of low intensity interventions: meta-analysis of individual patient data

Objective To assess how initial severity of depression affects the benefit derived from low intensity interventions for depression. Design Meta-analysis of individual patient data from 16 datasets comparing low intensity interventions with usual care. Setting Primary care and community settings. Participants 2470 patients with depression. Interventions Low intensity interventions for depression (such as guided self help by means of written materials and limited professional support, and internet delivered interventions). Main outcome measures Depression outcomes (measured with the Beck Depression Inventory or Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale), and the effect of initial depression severity on the effects of low intensity interventions. Results Although patients were referred for low intensity interventions, many had moderate to severe depression at baseline. We found a significant interaction between baseline severity and treatment effect (coefficient −0.1 (95% CI −0.19 to −0.002)), suggesting that patients who are more severely depressed at baseline demonstrate larger treatment effects than those who are less severely depressed. However, the magnitude of the interaction (equivalent to an additional drop of around one point on the Beck Depression Inventory for a one standard deviation increase in initial severity) was small and may not be clinically significant. Conclusions The data suggest that patients with more severe depression at baseline show at least as much clinical benefit from low intensity interventions as less severely depressed patients and could usefully be offered these interventions as part of a stepped care model.

A Re-Analysis of the Cochrane Library Data: The Dangers of Unobserved Heterogeneity in Meta-Analyses

Background Heterogeneity has a key role in meta-analysis methods and can greatly affect conclusions. However, true levels of heterogeneity are unknown and often researchers assume homogeneity. We aim to: a) investigate the prevalence of unobserved heterogeneity and the validity of the assumption of homogeneity; b) assess the performance of various meta-analysis methods; c) apply the findings to published meta-analyses. Methods and Findings We accessed 57,397 meta-analyses, available in the Cochrane Library in August 2012. Using simulated data we assessed the performance of various meta-analysis methods in different scenarios. The prevalence of a zero heterogeneity estimate in the simulated scenarios was compared with that in the Cochrane data, to estimate the degree of unobserved heterogeneity in the latter. We re-analysed all meta-analyses using all methods and assessed the sensitivity of the statistical conclusions. Levels of unobserved heterogeneity in the Cochrane data appeared to be high, especially for small meta-analyses. A bootstrapped version of the DerSimonian-Laird approach performed best in both detecting heterogeneity and in returning more accurate overall effect estimates. Re-analysing all meta-analyses with this new method we found that in cases where heterogeneity had originally been detected but ignored, 17–20% of the statistical conclusions changed. Rates were much lower where the original analysis did not detect heterogeneity or took it into account, between 1% and 3%. Conclusions When evidence for heterogeneity is lacking, standard practice is to assume homogeneity and apply a simpler fixed-effect meta-analysis. We find that assuming homogeneity often results in a misleading analysis, since heterogeneity is very likely present but undetected. Our new method represents a small improvement but the problem largely remains, especially for very small meta-analyses. One solution is to test the sensitivity of the meta-analysis conclusions to assumed moderate and large degrees of heterogeneity. Equally, whenever heterogeneity is detected, it should not be ignored.

Patient experience of access to primary care: identification of predictors in a national patient survey

BackgroundThe 2007/8 GP Access Survey in England measured experience with five dimensions of access: getting through on the phone to a practice, getting an early appointment, getting an advance appointment, making an appointment with a particular doctor, and surgery opening hours. Our aim was to identify predictors of patient satisfaction and experience with access to English primary care.Methods8,307 English general practices were included in the survey (of 8,403 identified). 4,922,080 patients were randomly selected and contacted by post and 1,999,523 usable questionnaires were returned, a response rate of 40.6%. We used multi-level logistic regressions to identify patient, practice and regional predictors of patient satisfaction and experience.ResultsAfter controlling for all other factors, younger people, and people of Asian ethnicity, working full time, or with long commuting times to work, reported the lowest levels of satisfaction and experience of access. For people in work, the ability to take time off work to visit the GP effectively eliminated the disadvantage in access. The ethnic mix of the local area had an impact on a patients reported satisfaction and experience over and above the patients own ethnic identity. However, area deprivation had only low associations with patient ratings. Responses from patients in small practices were more positive for all aspects of access with the exception of satisfaction with practice opening hours. Positive reports of access to care were associated with higher scores on the Quality and Outcomes Framework and with slightly lower rates of emergency admission. Respondents in London were the least satisfied and had the worst experiences on almost all dimensions of access.ConclusionsThis study identifies a number of patient groups with lower satisfaction, and poorer experience, of gaining access to primary care. The finding that access is better in small practices is important given the increasing tendency for small practices to combine into larger units. Consideration needs to be given to ways of retaining these and other benefits of small practice size when primary care services are reconfigured. Differences between population groups (e.g. younger people, ethnic minorities) may be due to differences in actual care received or different response tendencies of different groups. Further analysis is needed to determine whether case-mix adjustment is required when comparing practices serving different populations.

Performance of statistical methods for meta-analysis when true study effects are non-normally distributed: A simulation study

Meta-analysis (MA) is a statistical methodology that combines the results of several independent studies considered by the analyst to be ‘combinable’. The simplest approach, the fixed-effects (FE) model, assumes the true effect to be the same in all studies, while the random-effects (RE) family of models allows the true effect to vary across studies. However, all methods are only correct asymptotically, while some RE models assume that the true effects are normally distributed. In practice, MA methods are frequently applied when study numbers are small and the normality of the effect distribution unknown or unlikely. In this article, we discuss the performance of the FE approach and seven frequentist RE MA methods: DerSimonian–Laird, Q-based, maximum likelihood, profile likelihood, Biggerstaff–Tweedie, Sidik–Jonkman and Follmann–Proschan. We covered numerous scenarios by varying the MA sizes (small to moderate), the degree of heterogeneity (zero to very large) and the distribution of the effect sizes (normal, skew-normal and ‘extremely’ non-normal). Performance was evaluated in terms of coverage (Type I error), power (Type II error) and overall effect estimation (accuracy of point estimates and error intervals).

Long-term Glycemic Variability and Risk of Adverse Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE Glycemic variability is emerging as a measure of glycemic control, which may be a reliable predictor of complications. This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluates the association between HbA1c variability and micro- and macrovascular complications and mortality in type 1 and type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Medline and Embase were searched (2004–2015) for studies describing associations between HbA1c variability and adverse outcomes in patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Data extraction was performed independently by two reviewers. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed with stratification according to the measure of HbA1c variability, method of analysis, and diabetes type. RESULTS Seven studies evaluated HbA1c variability among patients with type 1 diabetes and showed an association of HbA1c variability with renal disease (risk ratio 1.56 [95% CI 1.08–2.25], two studies), cardiovascular events (1.98 [1.39–2.82]), and retinopathy (2.11 [1.54–2.89]). Thirteen studies evaluated HbA1c variability among patients with type 2 diabetes. Higher HbA1c variability was associated with higher risk of renal disease (1.34 [1.15–1.57], two studies), macrovascular events (1.21 [1.06–1.38]), ulceration/gangrene (1.50 [1.06–2.12]), cardiovascular disease (1.27 [1.15–1.40]), and mortality (1.34 [1.18–1.53]). Most studies were retrospective with lack of adjustment for potential confounders, and inconsistency existed in the definition of HbA1c variability. CONCLUSIONS HbA1c variability was positively associated with micro- and macrovascular complications and mortality independently of the HbA1c level and might play a future role in clinical risk assessment.

Suicide risk in primary care patients with major physical diseases: a case-control study

CONTEXT Most previous studies have examined suicide risk in relation to a single physical disease. OBJECTIVES To estimate relative risk across a range of physical diseases, to assess the confounding effect of clinical depression and effect modification by sex and age, and to examine physical illness multimorbidity. DESIGN Nested case-control study. SETTING Family practices in England (n = 224) [corrected] registered with the General Practice Research Database from January 1, 2001, through December 31, 2008. The case-control data were drawn from approximately 4.7 [corrected] million complete patient records, with complete linkage to national mortality records. PARTICIPANTS A total of 873 adult suicide cases and 17 460 living controls matched on age and sex were studied. The reference group for relative risk estimation consisted of people without any of the specific physical illnesses examined. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Suicide and open verdicts. RESULTS Among all patients, coronary heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and osteoporosis were linked with elevated suicide risk, and, with the exception of osteoporosis, the increase was explained by clinical depression. The only significantly elevated risk in men was with osteoporosis. Female effect sizes were greater, with 2- or 3-fold higher risk found among women diagnosed as having cancer, coronary heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and osteoporosis. In women with cancer and coronary heart disease, a significant elevation persisted after adjustment for depression. Overall, heightened risk was confined to physically ill women younger than 50 years and to older women with multiple physical diseases. CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate that clinical depression is a strong confounder of increased suicide risk among physically ill people. They also demonstrate an independent elevation in risk linked with certain diagnoses, particularly among women. Health care professionals working across all medical specialties should be vigilant for signs of undetected psychological symptoms.

Controlled Interventions to Reduce Burnout in Physicians: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Importance Burnout is prevalent in physicians and can have a negative influence on performance, career continuation, and patient care. Existing evidence does not allow clear recommendations for the management of burnout in physicians. Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of interventions to reduce burnout in physicians and whether different types of interventions (physician-directed or organization-directed interventions), physician characteristics (length of experience), and health care setting characteristics (primary or secondary care) were associated with improved effects. Data Sources MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials were searched from inception to May 31, 2016. The reference lists of eligible studies and other relevant systematic reviews were hand searched. Study Selection Randomized clinical trials and controlled before-after studies of interventions targeting burnout in physicians. Data Extraction and Synthesis Two independent reviewers extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. The main meta-analysis was followed by a number of prespecified subgroup and sensitivity analyses. All analyses were performed using random-effects models and heterogeneity was quantified. Main Outcomes and Measures The core outcome was burnout scores focused on emotional exhaustion, reported as standardized mean differences and their 95% confidence intervals. Results Twenty independent comparisons from 19 studies were included in the meta-analysis (n = 1550 physicians; mean [SD] age, 40.3 [9.5] years; 49% male). Interventions were associated with small significant reductions in burnout (standardized mean difference [SMD] = −0.29; 95% CI, −0.42 to −0.16; equal to a drop of 3 points on the emotional exhaustion domain of the Maslach Burnout Inventory above change in the controls). Subgroup analyses suggested significantly improved effects for organization-directed interventions (SMD = −0.45; 95% CI, −0.62 to −0.28) compared with physician-directed interventions (SMD = −0.18; 95% CI, −0.32 to −0.03). Interventions delivered in experienced physicians and in primary care were associated with higher effects compared with interventions delivered in inexperienced physicians and in secondary care, but these differences were not significant. The results were not influenced by the risk of bias ratings. Conclusions and Relevance Evidence from this meta-analysis suggests that recent intervention programs for burnout in physicians were associated with small benefits that may be boosted by adoption of organization-directed approaches. This finding provides support for the view that burnout is a problem of the whole health care organization, rather than individuals.

Regression based quasi-experimental approach when randomisation is not an option: interrupted time series analysis

Interrupted time series analysis is a quasi-experimental design that can evaluate an intervention effect, using longitudinal data. The advantages, disadvantages, and underlying assumptions of various modelling approaches are discussed using published examples