Evangelos Tyrlis

Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.

The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by climate change, associated with increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions. Since the region is diverse and extreme climate conditions already common, the impacts will be disproportional. We have analyzed long-term meteorological datasets along with regional climate model projections for the 21st century, based on the intermediate IPCC SRES scenario A1B. This suggests a continual, gradual and relatively strong warming of about 3.5–7°C between the 1961–1990 reference period and the period 2070–2099. Daytime maximum temperatures appear to increase most rapidly in the northern part of the region, i.e. the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey. Hot summer conditions that rarely occurred in the reference period may become the norm by the middle and the end of the 21st century. Projected precipitation changes are quite variable. Annual precipitation is expected to decrease in the southern Europe – Turkey region and the Levant, whereas in the Arabian Gulf area it may increase. In the former region rainfall is actually expected to increase in winter, while decreasing in spring and summer, with a substantial increase of the number of days without rainfall. Anticipated regional impacts of climate change include heat stress, associated with poor air quality in the urban environment, and increasing scarcity of fresh water in the Levant.

The summer circulation over the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East: influence of the South Asian monsoon

The summer circulation over the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) is dominated by persistent northerly winds (Etesians) whose ventilating effect counteracts the adiabatic warming induced by large scale subsidence. The ERA40 dataset is used to study the vertical distribution of these circulation features, which both appear to be reconciled manifestations of the South Asian monsoon influence. As predicted by past idealized modeling studies, in late spring a westward expanding upper level warm structure and subsidence areas are associated with Rossby waves excited by the monsoon convection. Steep sloping isentropes that develop over the EMME facilitate further subsidence on the western and northern periphery of the warm structure, which is exposed to the midlatitude westerlies. The northerly flow and descent over the eastern Mediterranean have maxima in July that are strikingly synchronous to the monsoon convection over northern India, where the weaker easterly jet favors a stronger Rossby wave response and consequent impact on the EMME circulation. The pronounced EMME topography modifies the monsoon induced structure, firstly, by inducing orographically locked summer anticyclones. These enhance the mid and low level northwesterly flow at their eastern flanks, leading to distinct subsidence maxima over the eastern Mediterranean and Iran. Secondly, topography amplifies the subsidence and the northerly flow over the Aegean, Red Sea, the Iraq—Gulf region and to the east of the Caspian Sea.

Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century

The eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, a region with diverse socioeconomic and cultural identities, is exposed to strong climatic gradients between its temperate north and arid south. Model projections of the twenty-first century indicate increasing hot weather extremes and decreasing rainfall. We present model results, which suggest that across the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey climate change is particularly rapid, and especially summer temperatures are expected to increase strongly. Temperature rise can be amplified by the depletion of soil moisture, which limits evaporative cooling, prompted by the waning of large-scale weather systems that generate rain. Very hot summers that occurred only rarely in the recent past are projected to become common by the middle and the end of the century. Throughout the region, the annual number of heat wave days may increase drastically. Furthermore, conditions in the region are conducive for photochemical air pollution. Our model projections suggest strongly increasing ozone formation, a confounding health risk factor particularly in urban areas. This adds to the high concentrations of aerosol particles from natural (desert dust) and anthropogenic sources. The heat extremes may have strong impacts, especially in the Middle East where environmental stresses are plentiful.

Climatology and Dynamics of the Summer Etesian Winds over the Eastern Mediterranean

AbstractThe Etesians are persistent northerly winds that prevail over the eastern Mediterranean during summer. A climatology of Etesian outbreaks over the Aegean was compiled with the aid of the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) dataset and their vertical organization is investigated. Their variability arises from high-frequency variability originating in the midlatitudes, interannual and intraseasonal variability controlled by the South Asian monsoon, and a local diurnal cycle. Consistent with the monsoon influence, Etesian outbreaks are most frequent from mid-July to mid-August. In agreement with previous studies, a negative trend in the incidence of Etesian outbreaks is detected during the overall June–September period, which is strikingly strong for September but diminishes in June. The strengthening of the Etesians by day over the central and southern Aegean results from the deepening of the Anatolian thermal low because of the daytime sensible heating near the surface. The timing of an outbreak onset...

On the linkage between the Asian summer monsoon and tropopause fold activity over the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East

A climatology of tropopause folds occurring over the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) has been established using the ERA-Interim reanalyses for the years 1979–2012. The methodology employs an algorithm that detects folds at grid points where the vertical profile features multiple crossings of the dynamical tropopause and allows their classification according to their vertical extent. Our results confirm the findings of an earlier 1 year climatology that recognized a global “hot spot” of summertime fold activity between the eastern Mediterranean and central Asia, in the vicinity of the subtropical jet. Two distinct maxima of activity are identified over Turkey and Iran-Afghanistan where fold frequency exceeds 25%. Occasionally, medium and deep folds form over the two regions at surprisingly low latitudes. This summertime peak in fold activity diverges from the zonal mean seasonal cycle over the subtropics and is driven by the South Asian Monsoon. Starting in late spring, the EMME is gradually brought under the influence of the zonally asymmetric background state induced by the monsoon. As areas of sharply sloping isentropes develop especially over the eastern Mediterranean and Iran-Afghanistan, subsidence and fold formation are favored. Further investigation of the reanalysis data provided empirical evidence that the monsoon also drives the interannual variability of EMME fold activity. An upward trend in fold activity is identified, especially in May, attributed to the recent advanced monsoon onset and the deepening convective activity throughout summer, which promotes upper-level baroclinicity over the EMME and favors folding.

Tropopause folds in ERA‐Interim: Global climatology and relation to extreme weather events

Tropopause folds are intimately linked to upper level frontogenesis and jet stream dynamics. They play an important role for stratosphere-troposphere exchange, the dynamical coupling of upper and lower tropospheric levels, and for generating severe weather events. This study presents a global climatology of tropopause folds using ERA-Interim reanalysis data from 1979 to 2012 and a refined version of a previously developed 3-D labeling and fold identification algorithm. This algorithm objectively separates stratospheric and tropospheric air in complex situations, e.g., in regions with strong low-level inversions, and in extratropical cyclones where diabatically generated potential vorticity anomalies typically occur. Three classes of tropopause folds are defined (shallow, medium, and deep), and their geographical distribution, vertical extent, and seasonal cycle are investigated. Most shallow folds occur along the subtropical jet stream, in agreement with previous studies. Hot spots of medium and deep tropopause folds are found west of Australia and along the coast of Antarctica in the Southern Hemisphere and around the east coast of North America in the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonal cycles show maxima in winter for all fold classes. Medium and deep folds are frequently associated with surface wind gust and precipitation extremes, as quantified for folds over the southern Indian Ocean. Wind gust extremes occur mainly in an elongated band upstream and equatorward of folds, whereas precipitation extremes occur mainly east and poleward of folds. Overall, in the considered region, about 20% of medium folds and 33% of deep folds are associated with surface wind or precipitation extremes in the vicinity of the fold.

The Etesians: from observations to reanalysis

AbstractThe Etesians are among the most persistent regional scale wind systems in the lower troposphere that blow over the Aegean Sea during the extended summer season. In this study we evaluate the performance of three different reanalysis products (the twentieth century reanalysis, 20CR; the 40-year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, Re-Analysis, ERA40; and the recently released ECMWF reanalysis ERA-20C) in capturing the Etesian wind system. Three-hourly data from 24 stations over Greece are used and compared with reanalysis outputs for the extended summer season (May–September) from 1971 to 2000. An objective classification of Etesians based on the pressure difference over the Aegean is provided. Classified Etesian days are then investigated as well as the associated large scale atmospheric circulation. Results highlight the ability of the investigated reanalyses to adequately describe the Etesian meteorological regimes. Intense Etesians are associated with stronger geopotential height anomalies over western-central Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean and with pronounced changes in the mean position of the jet streams. Finally, station time series provide evidence for less frequent intense Etesian days at the end of the extended summer season.

The role of blocking in the summer 2014 collapse of Etesians over the eastern Mediterranean

We investigate the dynamical harbingers leading to the remarkable summer 2014 decline of the northerly flow (Etesians) over the eastern Mediterranean. From mid-July to mid-August four distinct episodes of unseasonal southerly flow were identified and associated with upper level troughs over central Europe and the Balkans. These features developed as repeated episodes of wave breaking, leading to blocking over Europe in July, and triggered equatorward streamers of high potential vorticity. During July a twofold increase in blocking occurrence against climatology was identified over parts of Europe and was part of a five-wave hemispheric pattern featuring abundant high-latitude blocking also over central Asia, the central Pacific, and western Atlantic. Overall, the frequent European blocking resulted in the southward displacement of the midlatitude storm track toward the Balkans and the relaxation of the traditional sharp east-west pressure gradient that triggered the collapse of Etesians. The bifurcation of the midlatitude jet caused by blocking led to the intensification of the westerly flow over the Mediterranean, accompanying the passing disturbances farther to the north, which combined with the weak Etesians resulting in a dramatic modification of the large-scale circulation over the Mediterranean Basin.

The summer circulation over the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East: Influence of the South Asian monsoon and mid-latitude dynamics

The summer circulation in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) is dominated by persistent northerly winds (Etesians) whose ventilating effect counteracts the adiabatic warming induced by subsidence prevailing over the eastern Mediterranean. The ERA40 dataset is used to investigate the South Asian Monsoon and mid-latitude influences on the EMME circulation. Consistent with past modeling studies, in late spring an upper level warm structure and subsidence area expanding towards the EMME are identified, attributed to Rossby waves excited by monsoon convection. Steep sloping isentropes develop over the EMME with subsidence mainly over the eastern Mediterranean and Iran, where orographically induced circulation patterns enhance the mid-latitude northwesterly flow and the air mass subsidence along isentropes. These phenomena have a maximum in July and are strikingly synchronous to the convection over northern India where the background state favors a stronger Rossby wave response. The monsoon induced large-scale background state over the EMME is modified by synoptic activity originating in the Atlantic that introduces high frequency variability over the EMME. During ‘etesian outbreaks’ a ridge develops over the Balkans and sharp tropopause folds appear over the Aegean.

Tropopause Folds Over the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East in EMAC Simulations: Implications for Summertime Tropospheric Ozone

A 35 year climatological analysis (1979–2013) of tropopause fold frequency has been performed over the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, focusing on the implications for tropospheric ozone. The analysis is based on simulations with the EMAC (ECHAM5-MESSy) atmospheric chemistry climate model using a T42L90MA resolution, nudged tropospheric meteorology towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data and a tracer for stratospheric ozone (O3s). We implement a 3-D labeling algorithm, in order to detect tropopause folding events in EMAC simulations as areas of multiple crossings of the dynamical tropopause. A clear hot spot of tropopause folds occurs over the broader eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region during the summer season. A significant contribution of tropopause folds to the summertime pool of high tropospheric ozone over the eastern Mediterranean is identified during the selected fold events. Finally, a year-to-year analysis indicates a significant positive correlation between the observed near surface ozone and EMAC simulated middle/lower tropospheric ozone over the eastern Mediterranean.