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European Urology | 2011

Prostate Cancer Antigen 3 Score Accurately Predicts Tumour Volume and Might Help in Selecting Prostate Cancer Patients for Active Surveillance

Guillaume Ploussard; Xavier Durand; Evanguelos Xylinas; Stéphane Moutereau; Camélia Radulescu; Aurélien Forgue; Nathalie Nicolaiew; S. Terry; Yves Allory; Sylvain Loric; L. J. Salomon; Francis Vacherot; Alexandre de la Taille

BACKGROUND The optimal selection of prostate cancer (PCa) patients for active surveillance (AS) is currently being debated. OBJECTIVE To assess the impact of urinary prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3) score as an AS criterion instead of and in addition to the current criteria. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We prospectively studied 106 consecutive low-risk PCa patients (prostate-specific antigen [PSA] ≤10 ng/ml, clinical stage T1c-T2a, and biopsy Gleason score 6) who underwent a PCA3 urine test before radical prostatectomy (RP). MEASUREMENTS Performance of AS criteria (biopsy criteria, PCA3 score, PSA density, and magnetic resonance imaging [MRI] findings) was tested in predicting four prognostic pathologic findings in RP specimens: (1) pT3-4 disease; (2) overall unfavourable disease (OUD) defined by pT3-4 disease and/or pathologic primary Gleason pattern 4; (3) tumour volume <0.5 cm(3); and (4) insignificant PCa. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS The PCA3 score was strongly correlated with the tumour volume in a linear regression analysis (p<0.001, r=0.409). The risk of having a cancer ≥0.5 cm(3) and a significant PCa was increased three-fold in men with a PCA3 score of ≥25 compared with men with a PCA3 score of <25 with most AS biopsy criteria used. There was a trend towards higher PCA3 scores in patients with unfavourable and non-organ-confined disease and Gleason >6 cancers. In a multivariate analysis taking into account each AS criterion, a high PCA3 score (≥25) was an important predictive factor for tumour volume ≥0.5 cm(3) (odds ratio [OR]: 5.4; p=0.010) and significant PCa (OR: 12.7; p=0.003). Biopsy criteria and MRI findings were significantly associated with OUD (OR: 3.9 and 5.0, respectively; p=0.030 and p=0.025, respectively). CONCLUSIONS PCA3 score may be a useful marker to improve the selection for AS in addition to the current AS criteria. With a predictive cut-off of 25, PCA3 score is strongly indicative for tumour volume and insignificant PCa.


European Urology | 2013

ICUD-EAU international consultation on bladder cancer 2012: Screening, diagnosis, and molecular markers

Ashish M. Kamat; Paul K. Hegarty; Jason R. Gee; Peter E. Clark; Robert S. Svatek; Nicholas J. Hegarty; Shahrokh F. Shariat; Evanguelos Xylinas; Bernd J. Schmitz-Dräger; Yair Lotan; Lawrence C. Jenkins; Michael J. Droller; Bas W.G. van Rhijn; Pierre I. Karakiewicz

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE To present a summary of the 2nd International Consultation on Bladder Cancer recommendations on the screening, diagnosis, and markers of bladder cancer using an evidence-based strategy. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION A detailed Medline analysis was performed for original articles addressing bladder cancer with regard to screening, diagnosis, markers, and pathology. Proceedings from the last 5 yr of major conferences were also searched. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS The major findings are presented in an evidence-based fashion. Large retrospective and prospective data were analyzed. CONCLUSIONS Cystoscopy alone is the most cost-effective method to detect recurrence of bladder cancer. White-light cystoscopy is the gold standard for evaluation of the lower urinary tract; however, technology like fluorescence-aided cystoscopy and narrow-band imaging can aid in improving evaluations. Urine cytology is useful for the diagnosis of high-grade tumor recurrence. Molecular medicine holds the promise that clinical outcomes will be improved by directing therapy toward the mechanisms and targets associated with the growth of an individual patients tumor. The challenge remains to optimize measurement of these targets, evaluate the impact of such targets for therapeutic drug development, and translate molecular markers into the improved clinical management of bladder cancer patients. Physicians and researchers eventually will have a robust set of molecular markers to guide prevention, diagnosis, and treatment decisions for bladder cancer.


The Journal of Urology | 2013

Urothelial carcinoma of the bladder and the upper tract: disparate twins.

David A. Green; Michael Rink; Evanguelos Xylinas; Surena F. Matin; Arnulf Stenzl; Morgan Roupret; Pierre I. Karakiewicz; Douglas S. Scherr; Shahrokh F. Shariat

PURPOSE Urothelial carcinoma of the bladder is the 4th most common malignancy in men and the 8th most common cause of male cancer death in the United States. Conversely, upper tract urothelial carcinoma accounts for only 5% to 10% of all urothelial carcinoma. Due to the relative preponderance of urothelial carcinoma of the bladder, much of the clinical decision making regarding upper tract urothelial carcinoma is extrapolated from evidence that is based on urothelial carcinoma of the bladder cohorts. In fact, only 1 major urological organization has treatment guidelines specific for upper tract urothelial carcinoma. While significant similarities exist between these 2 diseases, ignoring the important differences may be preventing us from optimizing therapy in patients with upper tract urothelial carcinoma. Therefore, we explored these dissimilarities, including the differential importance of gender, anatomy, staging, intracavitary therapy, surgical lymphadenectomy and perioperative systemic chemotherapy on the behavior of urothelial carcinoma of the bladder and upper tract urothelial carcinoma. MATERIALS AND METHODS A nonsystematic literature search using the MEDLINE/PubMed® database was conducted to identify original articles, review articles and editorials. Searches were limited to the English language and studies in humans and in adults, and used the key words urothelial carcinoma, upper tract urothelial carcinoma or transitional cell carcinoma combined with several different sets of key words to identify appropriate publications for each section of the manuscript. The key words, broken down by section, were 1) epidemiology, sex, gender; 2) location, tumor location; 3) staging, stage; 4) intracavitary, intravesical, topical therapy; 5) lymphadenectomy, lymph node, lymph node dissection and 6) adjuvant, neoadjuvant, chemotherapy. RESULTS Women who present with urothelial carcinoma of the bladder do so with less favorable tumor characteristics and have worse survival than men. However, gender does not appear to be associated with survival outcomes in upper tract urothelial carcinoma. The prognostic effect that urothelial carcinoma tumor location has on outcomes prediction is a matter of debate, and the influence of tumor location may reflect our technical ability to accurately stage and treat the disease more than the actual tumor biology. Moreover, technical limitations of upper tract urothelial carcinoma sampling compared to transurethral resection for urothelial carcinoma of the bladder are the most important source of staging differences between the 2 diseases. Intravesical chemotherapy and immunotherapy are essential components of standard of care for most nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer, while adjuvant intracavitary therapy for patients with upper tract urothelial carcinoma treated endoscopically or percutaneously has been sparsely used and without any clear guidelines. The widespread adoption of the use of intracavitary therapy in the upper tract will likely not only require additional data to support its efficacy, but will also require a less cumbersome means of administration. Lymphadenectomy at the time of radical cystectomy is widely accepted while lymphadenectomy at the time of radical nephroureterectomy is performed largely at the discretion of the surgeon. Among other reasons, this may be due in part to the variable lymphatic drainage along the course of the ureter compared to the relatively confined lymphatic landing sites for the bladder. Level I evidence has demonstrated a clear survival benefit for systemic chemotherapy before radical surgery or radiation in patients with clinical T2-4N0M0 urothelial carcinoma of the bladder. Such data are not available in the population with upper tract urothelial carcinoma. However, the use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy may be even more important in upper tract urothelial carcinoma than in urothelial carcinoma of the bladder because of the obligatory kidney function loss that occurs at radical nephroureterectomy. CONCLUSIONS While urothelial carcinoma of the bladder and upper tract urothelial carcinoma share many characteristics, they represent 2 distinct diseases. There are practical, anatomical, biological and molecular differences that warrant consideration when risk stratifying and treating patients with these disparate twin diseases. To overcome the challenges that impede progress toward evidence-based medicine in upper tract urothelial carcinoma, we believe that focused collaborative efforts will best augment our understanding of this rare disease and ultimately improve the care we deliver to our patients.


European Urology | 2014

Impact of Distal Ureter Management on Oncologic Outcomes Following Radical Nephroureterectomy for Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma

Evanguelos Xylinas; Michael Rink; Eugene K. Cha; Thomas Clozel; Richard K. Lee; Harun Fajkovic; Evi Comploj; Giacomo Novara; Vitaly Margulis; Jay D. Raman; Yair Lotan; Wassim Kassouf; Hans Martin Fritsche; Alon Z. Weizer; Juan I. Martínez-Salamanca; Kazumasa Matsumoto; Richard Zigeuner; Armin Pycha; Douglas S. Scherr; Christian Seitz; Thomas J. Walton; Quoc-Dien Trinh; Pierre I. Karakiewicz; Surena F. Matin; Francesco Montorsi; M. Zerbib; Shahrokh F. Shariat

BACKGROUND There is a lack of consensus regarding the optimal approach to the bladder cuff during radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) for upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC). OBJECTIVES To compare the oncologic outcomes following RNU using three different methods of bladder cuff management. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Retrospective analysis of 2681 patients treated with RNU for UTUC at 24 international institutions from 1987 to 2007. INTERVENTION Three methods of bladder cuff excision were performed: transvesical, extravesical, and endoscopic. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Univariable and multivariable models tested the effect of distal ureter management on intravesical recurrence, recurrence-free survival (RFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS). RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS Of the 2681 patients, 1811 (67.5%) underwent the transvesical approach; 785 (29.3%), the extravesical approach; and 85 (3.2%), the endoscopic approach. There was no difference in terms of RFS, CSS, and OS among the three distal ureteral management approaches. Patients who underwent the endoscopic approach were at significantly higher risk of intravesical recurrence compared with those who underwent the transvesical (p=0.02) or extravesical approaches (p=0.02); the latter two groups did not differ from each other (p=0.40). Actuarial intravesical RFS estimates at 2 and 5 yr after RNU were 69% and 58%, 69% and 51%, and 61% and 42% for the transvesical, extravesical, and endoscopic approaches, respectively. In multivariate analyses, distal ureteral management (p=0.01), surgical technique (open vs laparoscopic; p=0.02), previous bladder cancer (p<0.001), higher tumor stage (trend; p=0.01), concomitant carcinoma in situ (CIS) (p<0.001), and lymph node involvement (trend; p<0.001) were all associated with intravesical recurrence. Excluding patients with history of previous bladder cancer, all variables remained independent predictors of intravesical recurrence. CONCLUSIONS The endoscopic approach was associated with higher intravesical recurrence rates. Interestingly, concomitant CIS in the upper tract is a strong predictor of intravesical recurrence after RNU. The association of laparoscopic RNU with intravesical recurrence needs to be further investigated.


European Urology | 2011

Ureteral and Multifocal Tumours Have Worse Prognosis than Renal Pelvic Tumours in Urothelial Carcinoma of the Upper Urinary Tract Treated by Nephroureterectomy

Adil Ouzzane; Pierre Colin; Evanguelos Xylinas; Géraldine Pignot; Mehdi Mokhtar Ariane; Fabien Saint; Nicolas Hoarau; Emilie Adam; Marie Dominique Azemar; H. Bensadoun; Luc Cormier; Olivier Cussenot; Alain Houlgatte; G. Karsenty; Franck Bruyère; Charlotte Maurin; François Xavier Nouhaud; Véronique Phé; Thomas Polguer; Mathieu Roumiguié; Alain Ruffion; Morgan Rouprêt

BACKGROUND It is not known whether the primary tumour location of upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UUT-UC) is associated with prognosis. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the impact of initial primary tumour location on survival in patients who had undergone radical nephroureterectomy (RNU). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Using a multi-institutional, retrospective database, we identified 609 patients with UUT-UC who had undergone RNU between 1995 and 2010. Tumour location was categorised as renal pelvis, ureter, or multifocal. INTERVENTION All patients had undergone RNU. MEASUREMENTS Tumour location was tested as a prognostic factor for survival through univariate and multivariable Cox regression analysis. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS Tumour location was renal pelvis in 317 cases (52%), ureter in 185 cases (30%), and multifocal in 107 cases (18%). Compared to renal pelvic and ureteral tumours, multifocal tumours were more likely to be associated with advanced stages (pT3/pT4; 39%, 30%, and 54%, respectively; p<0.001) and high-grade disease (53%, 56%, and 76%, respectively; p<0.001). On multivariable analysis, tumour location was an independent prognostic factor for cancer-specific death, disease recurrence, and metastasis (p<0.05). The 5-yr cancer-specific death-free survival probability was 86.8% for renal pelvic tumours, 68.9% for ureteral tumours, and 56.8% for multifocal tumours (p<0.001). The retrospective design of this study was its main limitation. CONCLUSIONS Ureteral and multifocal tumours had a worse prognosis than renal pelvic tumours. These findings are not in line with recently published data and should be investigated in a prospective assessment to obtain a definitive statement regarding this matter.


European Urology | 2014

Effect of Smoking on Outcomes of Urothelial Carcinoma: A Systematic Review of the Literature

Joseph J. Crivelli; Evanguelos Xylinas; Luis Kluth; Malte Rieken; Michael Rink; Shahrokh F. Shariat

CONTEXT Cigarette smoking is the best-established risk factor for urothelial carcinoma (UC). However, the effect of smoking on outcomes of UC patients remains debated. OBJECTIVE To integrate the available evidence regarding the impact of smoking status and smoking exposure on recurrence, progression, cancer-specific mortality, and any-cause mortality in patients with UC of the bladder (UCB) and upper tract UC (UTUC) treated with transurethral resection of the bladder (TURB), radical cystectomy (RC), or radical nephroureterectomy (RNU). EVIDENCE ACQUISITION A systematic search of the literature was conducted using the Medline, Embase, and Scopus databases, which was limited to articles published in English between January 1974 and March 2013. Articles were also extracted from the reference lists of identified studies and reviews. We selected 29 articles (15 TURB, 7 RC, and 7 RNU) according to predefined inclusion criteria and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS The majority of studies demonstrated an association with disease recurrence in patients treated with TURB, while evidence for associations with disease progression, cancer-specific mortality, and any-cause mortality was less abundant. While two studies showed no association of smoking with outcomes of T1 UCB, there was mixed evidence for an association of smoking with response to intravesical therapy. For patients treated with RC, there was minimal support for an association of smoking with all outcomes. In a majority of studies of patients receiving RNU for UTUC, smoking was associated with intravesical recurrence, disease recurrence, cancer-specific mortality, and any-cause mortality. There was also evidence for a beneficial effect of smoking cessation on UC prognosis. Finally, findings regarding gender-specific effects of smoking on prognosis were contradictory. We note that there was marked heterogeneity in patient populations and smoking categorizations across studies, precluding a meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS Smoking may lead to less favorable outcomes for UCB and UTUC patients, and smoking cessation may mitigate this effect. The current evidence base lacks studies on the effects of smoking on prognosis in numerous clinical demographic subgroups of UC patients, as well as prospective investigation of smoking cessation.


European Urology | 2014

A Multinational, Multi-institutional Study Comparing Positive Surgical Margin Rates Among 22 393 Open, Laparoscopic, and Robot-assisted Radical Prostatectomy Patients

Prasanna Sooriakumaran; Abhishek Srivastava; Shahrokh F. Shariat; Thomas E. Ahlering; Christopher Eden; Peter Wiklund; Rafael Sanchez-Salas; Alexandre Mottrie; David Lee; David E. Neal; Reza Ghavamian; Péter Nyirády; Andreas Nilsson; Stefan Carlsson; Evanguelos Xylinas; Wolfgang Loidl; Christian Seitz; Paul Schramek; Claus G. Roehrborn; Xavier Cathelineau; Douglas Skarecky; Greg Shaw; Anne Warren; Warick Delprado; Anne Marie Haynes; Ewout W. Steyerberg; Monique J. Roobol; Ashutosh Tewari

BACKGROUND Positive surgical margins (PSMs) are a known risk factor for biochemical recurrence in patients with prostate cancer (PCa) and are potentially affected by surgical technique and volume. OBJECTIVE To investigate whether radical prostatectomy (RP) modality and volume affect PSM rates. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Fourteen institutions in Europe, the United States, and Australia were invited to participate in this study, all of which retrospectively provided margins data on 9778 open RP, 4918 laparoscopic RP, and 7697 robotic RP patients operated on between January 2000 and October 2011. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSES The outcome measure was PSM rate. Multivariable logistic regression analyses and propensity score methods identified odds ratios for risk of a PSM for one modality compared with another, after adjustment for age, preoperative prostate-specific antigen, postoperative Gleason score, pathologic stage, and year of surgery. Classic adjustment using standard covariates was also implemented to compare PSM rates based on center volume for each minimally invasive surgical cohort. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS Open RP patients had higher-risk PCa at time of surgery on average and were operated on earlier in the study time period on average, compared with minimally invasive cohorts. Crude margin rates were lowest for robotic RP (13.8%), intermediate for laparoscopic RP (16.3%), and highest for open RP (22.8%); significant differences persisted, although were ameliorated, after statistical adjustments. Lower-volume centers had increased risks of PSM compared with the highest-volume center for both laparoscopic RP and robotic RP. The study is limited by its nonrandomized nature; missing data across covariates, especially year of surgery in many of the open cohort cases; lack of standardized histologic processing and central pathology review; and lack of information regarding potential confounders such as patient comorbidity, nerve-sparing status, lymph node status, tumor volume, and individual surgeon caseload. CONCLUSIONS This multinational, multi-institutional study of 22 393 patients after RP suggests that PSM rates might be lower after minimally invasive techniques than after open RP and that PSM rates are affected by center volume in laparoscopic and robotic cases. PATIENT SUMMARY In this study, we compared the effectiveness of different types of surgery for prostate cancer by looking at the rates of cancer cells left at the margins of what was removed in the operations. We compared open, keyhole, and robotic surgery from many centers across the globe and found that robotic and keyhole operations appeared to have lower margin rates than open surgeries. How many cases a center and surgeon do seems to affect this rate for both robotic and keyhole procedures.


European Urology | 2013

Impact of Smoking and Smoking Cessation on Oncologic Outcomes in Primary Non–muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer

Michael Rink; Helena Furberg; Emily C. Zabor; Evanguelos Xylinas; Marko Babjuk; Armin Pycha; Yair Lotan; Pierre I. Karakiewicz; Giacomo Novara; Brian D. Robinson; Francesco Montorsi; Felix K.-H. Chun; Douglas S. Scherr; Shahrokh F. Shariat

BACKGROUND Cigarette smoking is the best-established risk factor for urothelial carcinoma (UC) development, but the impact on oncologic outcomes remains poorly understood. OBJECTIVE To analyse the effects of smoking status, cumulative exposure, and time from smoking cessation on the prognosis of patients with primary non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We collected smoking data from 2043 patients with primary NMIBC. Smoking variables included smoking status, average number of cigarettes smoked per day (CPD), duration in years, and time since smoking cessation. Lifetime cumulative smoking exposure was categorised as light short term (≤ 19 CPD, ≤ 19.9 yr), light long term (≤ 19 CPD, ≥ 20 yr), heavy short term (≥ 20 CPD, ≤ 19.9 yr) and heavy long term (≥ 20 CPD, ≥ 20 yr). The median follow-up in this retrospective study was 49 mo. INTERVENTIONS Transurethral resection of the bladder with or without intravesical instillation therapy. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Univariable and multivariable logistic regression and competing risk regression analyses assessed the effects of smoking on outcomes. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS There was no difference in clinicopathologic factors among never (24%), former (47%), and current smokers (29%). Smoking status was associated with the cumulative incidence of disease progression in multivariable analysis (p=0.003); current smokers had the highest cumulative incidences. Among current and former smokers, cumulative smoking exposure was associated with disease recurrence (p<0.001), progression (p<0.001), and overall survival (p<0.001) in multivariable analyses that adjusted for the effects of standard clinicopathologic factors and smoking status; heavy long-term smokers had the worst outcomes, followed by light long-term, heavy short-term, and light short-term smokers. Smoking cessation >10 yr reduced the risk of disease recurrence (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.66; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.52-0.84; p<0.001) and progression (HR: 0.42; 95% CI, 0.22-0.83; p=0.036) in multivariable analyses. The study is limited by its retrospective nature. CONCLUSIONS Smoking status and a higher cumulative smoking exposure are associated with worse prognosis in patients with NMIBC. Smoking cessation >10 yr abrogates this detrimental effect. These findings underscore the need for integrated smoking cessation and prevention programmes in the management of NMIBC patients.


European Urology | 2015

Multicenter Assessment of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for Muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer

Homayoun Zargar; Patrick Espiritu; Adrian Fairey; Laura S. Mertens; Colin P. Dinney; Maria Carmen Mir; Laura Maria Krabbe; Michael S. Cookson; Niels Jacobsen; Nilay Gandhi; Joshua Griffin; Jeffrey S. Montgomery; Nikhil Vasdev; Evan Y. Yu; David Youssef; Evanguelos Xylinas; Nicholas J. Campain; Wassim Kassouf; Marc Dall'Era; Jo An Seah; Cesar E. Ercole; Simon Horenblas; Srikala S. Sridhar; John S. McGrath; Jonathan Aning; Shahrokh F. Shariat; Jonathan L. Wright; Andrew Thorpe; Todd M. Morgan; Jeff M. Holzbeierlein

BACKGROUND The efficacy of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for muscle-invasive bladder cancer (BCa) was established primarily with methotrexate, vinblastine, doxorubicin, and cisplatin (MVAC), with complete response rates (pT0) as high as 38%. However, because of the comparable efficacy with better tolerability of gemcitabine and cisplatin (GC) in patients with metastatic disease, GC has become the most commonly used regimen in the neoadjuvant setting. OBJECTIVE We aimed to assess real-world pathologic response rates to NAC with different regimens in a large, multicenter cohort. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Data were collected retrospectively at 19 centers on patients with clinical cT2-4aN0M0 urothelial carcinoma of the bladder who received at least three cycles of NAC, followed by radical cystectomy (RC), between 2000 and 2013. INTERVENTION NAC and RC. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS The primary outcome was pathologic stage at cystectomy. Univariable and multivariable analyses were used to determine factors predictive of pT0N0 and ≤pT1N0 stages. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS Data were collected on 935 patients who met inclusion criteria. GC was used in the majority of the patients (n=602; 64.4%), followed by MVAC (n=183; 19.6%) and other regimens (n=144; 15.4%). The rates of pT0N0 and ≤pT1N0 pathologic response were 22.7% and 40.8%, respectively. The rate of pT0N0 disease for patients receiving GC was 23.9%, compared with 24.5% for MVAC (p=0.2). There was no difference between MVAC and GC in pT0N0 on multivariable analysis (odds ratio: 0.89 [95% confidence interval, 0.61-1.34]; p=0.6). CONCLUSIONS Response rates to NAC were lower than those reported in prospective randomized trials, and we did not discern a difference between MVAC and GC. Without any evidence from randomized prospective trials, the best NAC regimen for invasive BCa remains to be determined. PATIENT SUMMARY There was no apparent difference in the response rates to the two most common presurgical chemotherapy regimens for patients with bladder cancer.


British Journal of Cancer | 2013

Accuracy of the EORTC risk tables and of the CUETO scoring model to predict outcomes in non-muscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma of the bladder

Evanguelos Xylinas; Michael S. Kent; Luis A. Kluth; Armin Pycha; Evi Comploj; Robert S. Svatek; Yair Lotan; Quoc-Dien Trinh; Pierre I. Karakiewicz; Sten Holmäng; Douglas S. Scherr; M. Zerbib; Andrew J. Vickers; Shahrokh F. Shariat

Background:The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) risk tables and the Spanish Urological Club for Oncological Treatment (CUETO) scoring model are the two best-established predictive tools to help decision making for patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). The aim of the current study was to assess the performance of these predictive tools in a large multicentre cohort of NMIBC patients.Methods:We performed a retrospective analysis of 4689 patients with NMIBC. To evaluate the discrimination of the models, we created Cox proportional hazard regression models for time to disease recurrence and progression. We incorporated the patients calculated risk score as a predictor into both of these models and then calculated their discrimination (concordance indexes). We compared the concordance index of our models with the concordance index reported for the models.Results:With a median follow-up of 57 months, 2110 patients experienced disease recurrence and 591 patients experienced disease progression. Both tools exhibited a poor discrimination for disease recurrence and progression (0.597 and 0.662, and 0.523 and 0.616, respectively, for the EORTC and CUETO models). The EORTC tables overestimated the risk of disease recurrence and progression in high-risk patients. The discrimination of the EORTC tables was even lower in the subgroup of patients treated with BCG (0.554 and 0.576 for disease recurrence and progression, respectively). Conversely, the discrimination of the CUETO model increased in BCG-treated patients (0.597 and 0.645 for disease recurrence and progression, respectively). However, both models overestimated the risk of disease progression in high-risk patients.Conclusion:The EORTC risk tables and the CUETO scoring system exhibit a poor discrimination for both disease recurrence and progression in NMIBC patients. These models overestimated the risk of disease recurrence and progression in high-risk patients. These overestimations remained in BCG-treated patients, especially for the EORTC tables. These results underline the need for improving our current predictive tools. However, our study is limited by its retrospective and multi-institutional design.

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Yair Lotan

University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center

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Malte Rieken

Medical University of Vienna

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M. Zerbib

Paris Descartes University

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S.F. Shariat

Medical University of Vienna

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Vitaly Margulis

University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center

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