Eve Gruntfest

Flood Risk, Uncertainty, and Scientific Information for Decision Making: Lessons from an Interdisciplinary Project

The magnitude of flood damage in the United States, combined with the uncertainty in current estimates of flood risk, suggest that society could benefit from improved scientific information about flood risk. To help address this perceived need, a group of researchers initiated an interdisciplinary study of climate variability, scientific uncertainty, and hydrometeorological information for flood-risk decision making, focused on Colorados Rocky Mountain Front Range urban corridor. We began by investigating scientific research directions that were likely to benefit flood-risk estimation and management, through consultation with climatologists, hydrologists, engineers, and planners. In doing so, we identified several challenges involved in generating new scientific information to aid flood management in the presence of significant scientific and societal uncertainty. This essay presents lessons learned from this study, along with our observations on the complex interactions among scientific information, unc...

Flash flood mitigation: recommendations for research and applications

New technologies promise reduced flash flood losses. However, real-time observations with vast multi-sensor networks, more precise mapping capabilities using remote sensing and GIS, quicker hydrological and meteorological models, and increasing forecast lead times have not reduced losses. In November, 1999, 35 researchers from nine countries met in Ravello, Italy at a NATO sponsored Advanced Study Institute, to discuss these issues and to develop a research agenda that incorporates the various components required to cope with flash floods. The key recommendations from the Institute were: (1) greater emphasis on increasing understanding of the social processes involved in flash flood warning, particularly in the response phases, and (2) the need to reduce vulnerability in sustainable ways compatible with long-term economic and social goals. The relationship between hydrometeorology and social science is seen as critical to advancing our abilities to cope with flash floods. r 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for driving into flooded roads

Abstract Motor vehicle-related deaths account for more than half of all flood fatalities in the United States, but to date, very little is known about the risk factors associated with why people drive into flooded roads. Using data from survey questionnaires administered in Denver, CO, and Austin, TX, this paper suggests that people who do not take warnings seriously are more likely to drive through flooded roads, as are people aged 18–35, and those that do not know that motor vehicles are involved in more than half of all flood fatalities. In Denver, people who have not experienced a flood previously and those who do not know they live in flood-prone areas are also more likely to drive into flooded roads.

Interactions between scientific uncertainty and flood management decisions: Two case studies in Colorado

Abstract Flood management policies in the United States rely on scientific information about the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation and runoff. Yet, the available information is inherently uncertain because of the complexity of meteorological and hydrological processes. In mountainous areas, flood risk can vary greatly even within short distances depending on local climate, topography, soil characteristics, and land use. This paper describes two Colorado cases in which policy makers were presented with conflicting scientific estimates: revision of the Fort Collins floodplain map and modification of the Cherry Creek Dam. The case studies demonstrate that uncertainty can have substantial impacts on regulatory processes, public safety, and costs. The analysis considers the differing perspectives of various participants in the flood management processes, illustrating the interplay between uncertainties attributable to scientific issues and values issues. It suggests that attempts to provide a single “best” estimate do not necessarily meet the decision needs of all stakeholders. Conclusions indicate a need to improve communication about uncertainty when scientific estimates areprovided to decision makers. Furthermore, in highly controversial decisions, it may be necessary to reframe the discussion to consider the values issues raised by scientific uncertainty.

Coping with flash floods

Preface. Acknowledgements. List of Participants. Part I: The Problem - Definitions, Vulnerabilities. Dealing With Flash Foods: Contemporary Issues and Future Possibilities E. Gruntfest, J. Handmer. Impacts of Flash Floods M.S. Petersen. Role of Education in Reducing Flash Flood Effects M. Siudak. Hydrometeorology of Flash Floods M. Kelsch, et al. GIS and Social Vulnerability Analysis B.E. Montz, T.A. Evans. Flash Flood Mitigation in Uganda, Equatorial East Africa M. Farah. A Study of the Knowledge and Behavior of Brzesko Inhabitants After the Flood in 1997 R. Bogdanska-Warmuz. Features of Flash Floods Within Plain and Mountain Territory of Ukraine O. Udovyk, Y. Yakovlev. A Hydro-Social Modeling Approach for Flash Flooding Alleviation J. Ganoulis. Part II: Managing the Problem - Mitigation. Warning Systems for Flash Floods: Research Needs, Opportunities and Trends J. Handmer, et al. Local Flood Hazard Reduction Plans in Poland - Problems and Perspectives R. Konieczny, et al. The Integrated Approach to Flash Flood Management M. Brilly. The Effectiveness of Engineering Geology in Coping with Flash Floods: A Systems Approach S.G. Skias. Assessing the Effects and Effectiveness of Flash Flood Mitigation Strategies B.E. Montz. Part III: Managing the Problem - Warnings and Technology. The Killer Tornado Outbreak of 3 May 1999: Applications of OK-First in Rural Communities K.C. Crawford, D.A. Morris. Revelations from 21 Years of Providing Flash Flood Warning Support in Denver, Colorado K.G. Stewart. Beyond Flood Detection: Alternative Applications of Real-Time Data E. Gruntfest. Hydrometeorological Characteristics of Flash Floods M. Kelsch. Resonance ofScales as a Condition for Flash Floods on a Regional Domain L.G. Lanza. A Distributed Hydrological Model of Flash-Floods E. Caporali. Watershed Modeling with HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Centers -- Hydrologic Modeling System) Using Spatially Distributed Rainfall H.W. Dotson. Soil Moisture Observations for Flash Flood Research and Prediction J.B. Basara. U.S. Flash Flood Warning Dissemination Via Radio and Television R. Henson. Ranking Flash Flood Warnings: A Better Way to Relate Threat to the Public? P. Sneeringer. Part IV: Related Hazards. Landslide Hazards Associated with Flash-Floods, with Examples from the December 1999 Disaster in Venezuela, M.C. Larsen, et al. Evaluation of Temporal and Spatial Factors that Control the Susceptibility to Rainfall-Triggered Landslides M.C. Larsen. Heavy Rainfall Effects in Mexico During Early October 1999 M.T. Vazquez Conde, et al. Part V: Where Do We Go From Here? The Flash Flood Laboratory at Colorado State Universitys Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere E. Gruntfest, et al. Improved Flash Flood Predictions C.R. Adams, W.H. Hooke. Where We Go From Here: Policy and Research Recommendations E. Gruntfest, J. Handmer.

Two Floods in Fort Collins, Colorado: Learning from a Natural Disaster

A flash flood in Fort Collins, Colorado, on 28 July 1997 resulted in 5 deaths, 62 injuries, and more than

Changes in American urban floodplain occupancy since 1958: the experiences of nine cities

250 million in property damage. Following the 1997 flood, a great many changes were made in the citys preparedness infrastructure. On 30 April 1999, a combination of heavy rain and melting snow caused a second, less serious flood event. This article reports on the changes implemented following the first flood and their effectiveness during the second.

Status report on flood warning systems in the United States

Abstract In 1958, researchers from the University of Chicago documented increases in the number of structures in the floodplains of 17 American cities, a phenomenon attributed to the prevalence of flood control structures. Because federal policies have shifted to managing floodplains, this paper updates the 1958 study for nine of the cities. Several trends are apparent. Development pressures determine flood-plain encroachment; floodplain management regulations have been implemented where it was easiest to do so. Further, structural measures continue to dominate. Thus, while many local officials are becoming more aware of advantages of flood-plain regulation, implementation and enforcement are inconsistent and uneven.

WAS*IS: Building a Community for Integrating Meteorology and Social Science

One of the major changes in flash-flood mitigation in the past decade is the number of communities that have implemented warning systems. The authors conducted a survey of 18 early-warning systems in the United States developed by communities or regions to provide protection against flash floods or dam failures. Problems revealed by the study included the following: equipment malfunctions, inadequate maintenance funding, inconsistent levels of protection and expenditure, inconsistent levels of expectations and formalization, varying levels of local commitment to the systems, underemphasis on response capability, and a tendency to over-rely on warning systems. The study also revealed some unanticipated benefits experienced by the survey communities: the warning systems serve as valuable data collection tools, a great deal of interagency cooperation has been demonstrated, and warning systems offer increased alternatives to structural modification projects. The interjurisdictional nature of drainage basins, the evolving roles of the various federal agencies involved in flood mitigation, and the lack of governmental standards of operations for flood warning systems are issues that must be considered as communities make decisions regarding the adoption of warning systems. The record on these systems is too short for a precise assessment of how successful they are; however, results of the study indicate that if the goal of reducing loss of life and property from flooding is to be achieved, warning systems must be only one part of a comprehensive flood loss reduction program.

Dealing with Flash Floods: Contemporary Issues and Future Possibilities

Weather and Society*Integrated Studies (WAS*IS) is a grassroots movement to change the weather enterprise by comprehensively and sustainably integrating social science into meteorological research and practice. WAS*IS is accomplishing this by establishing a framework for a) building an interdisciplinary community of practitioners, researchers, and stakeholders who are dedicated to the integration of meteorology and social science, and b) providing this community with a means to learn and further examine ideas, methods, and examples related to integrated weather-society work. In its first year, WAS*IS focused on achieving its mission primarily through several workshops. Between July 2005 and August2006, there were three WAS*IS workshops with a total of 86 selected participants. The workshops focused on the following: laying the groundwork for conducting interdisciplinary work, teaching basic tools and concepts relevant to integrated weather-society efforts, using real-world examples to learn about effectiv...