Evelyn H. Wei

Risk and promotive effects in the explanation of persistent serious delinquency in boys

Risk and promotive effects were investigated as predictors of persistent serious delinquency in male participants of the Pittsburgh Youth Study (R. Loeber, D. P. Farrington, M. Stouthamer-Loeber, & W. B. van Kammen, 1998), living in different neighborhoods. Participants were studied over ages 13-19 years for the oldest sample and 7-13 years for the youngest sample. Risk and promotive effects were studied in 6 domains: child behavior, child attitudes, school and leisure activities, peer behaviors, family functioning, and demographics. Regression models improved when promotive effects were included with risk effects in predicting persistent serious delinquency. Disadvantaged neighborhoods, compared with better neighborhoods, had a higher prevalence of risk effects and a lower prevalence of promotive effects. However, predictive relations between risk and promotive effects and persistent serious delinquency were linear and similar across neighborhood socioeconomic status.

The prediction of violence and homicide in young men.

In this prospective study, the authors predicted violence and homicide in 3 representative school samples (N = 1,517). Participants were part of a longitudinal, multiple cohort study on the development of delinquency in boys from late childhood to early adulthood in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Thirty-three participants were convicted of homicide, 193 participants were convicted of serious violence, whereas another 498 participants self-reported serious violence. Predictors of violence included risk factors in the domains of child, family, school, and demographic characteristics. Boys with 4 or more violence risk factors were 6 times more likely to later commit violence in comparison with boys with fewer than 4 risk factors (odds ratio [OR] = 6.05). A subset of risk factors related to violence also predicted homicide among violent offenders. Boys with 4 or more risk factors for homicide were 14 times more likely to later commit homicide than violent individuals with fewer than 4 risk factors (OR = 14.48). Implications for the prevention of violence and homicide are discussed.

Desistance from persistent serious delinquency in the transition to adulthood

Many delinquent youth stop offending sometime in late adolescence or early adulthood. However, little is known about individual differences in desistance and which factors promote or inhibit desistance. In the current study, young males in the oldest sample of the Pittsburgh Youth Study were followed from ages 13 to 25. About one-third became persistent serious delinquents between ages 13 and 19. Out of that group, almost 40% desisted in serious offending between ages 20 and 25. Significantly more of the desisters, compared to the persisters in serious delinquency, had been employed or in school. Bivariate analyses demonstrated many predictors of desistance of serious delinquency in early adulthood in the domains of individual, family, and peer factors measured from early adolescence onward. Multiple regression analyses showed that the following promotive factors were associated with desistance: low physical punishment by parents in early adolescence and being employed or in school in early adulthood. The following risk factors were inversely associated with desistance during early adulthood: serious delinquency during late adolescence, hard drug use, gang membership, and positive perception of problem behavior in early adulthood. The article discusses the implications of promotive and risk factors for preventive interventions.

Block observations of neighbourhood physical disorder are associated with neighbourhood crime, firearm injuries and deaths, and teen births

Study objective: To provide reliability information for a brief observational measure of physical disorder and determine its relation with neighbourhood level crime and health variables after controlling for census based measures of concentrated poverty and minority concentration. Design: Psychometric analysis of block observation data comprising a brief measure of neighbourhood physical disorder, and cross sectional analysis of neighbourhood physical disorder, neighbourhood crime and birth statistics, and neighbourhood level poverty and minority concentration. Setting: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US (2000 population = 334 563). Participants: Pittsburgh neighbourhoods (n = 82) and their residents (as reflected in neighbourhood level statistics). Main results: The physical disorder index showed adequate reliability and validity and was associated significantly with rates of crime, firearm injuries and homicides, and teen births, while controlling for concentrated poverty and minority population. Conclusions: This brief measure of neighbourhood physical disorder may help increase our understanding of how community level factors reflect health and crime outcomes.

Teasing Apart the Developmental Associations Between Alcohol and Marijuana Use and Violence

This study explored the longitudinal associations of alcohol and marijuana use and violence over ages 11-20 in the youngest sample of males from the Pittsburgh Youth Study (N= 503). We examined trends in alcohol and marijuana use and violence, howthey covaried both concurrently and over time, and whether frequent substance use predicted violence and vice versa in multivariate models controlling for common risk factors. The analyses focused on frequent alcohol or marijuana users, those who scored in the highest 25% of frequency. Throughout adolescence, substance use was more prevalent than violence. Most substance users did not engage in violence, and the proportion of substance users who engaged in violence was smaller than the proportion of violent offenders who were also substance users. Concurrently, frequent use of alcohol and marijuana were both significantly associated with violence. Longitudinal associations between frequent drinking and violence were weak, whereas longitudinal associations between frequent marijuana use and violence were more consistent. However, the relationship between frequent marijuana use and violence (and vice versa) was spurious; itwas no longer significant when common risk factors such as race/ethnicity and hard drug use were controlled for. We conclude that the marijuana-violence relationship is due to selection effects whereby these behaviors tend to co-occur in certain individuals, not because one behavior causes the other; rather, both are influenced by shared risk factors and/or an underlying tendency toward deviance.