Everett P. Springer

Virtual watersheds: simulating the water balance of the Rio Grande Basin

Managers of water resources in arid and semi-arid regions must allocate increasingly variable surface water supplies and limited groundwater resources. This challenge is leading to a new generation of detailed computational models that can link multiple sources to a wide range of demands. Detailed computational models of complex natural-human systems can help decision makers allocate scarce natural resources such as water. This article describes a virtual watershed model, the Los Alamos Distributed Hydrologic System (LADHS), which contains the essential physics of all elements of a regional hydrosphere and allows feedback between them. Unlike real watersheds, researchers can perform experiments on virtual watersheds, produce them relatively cheaply (once a modeling framework is established), and run them faster than real time. Furthermore, physics-based virtual watersheds do not require extensive tuning and are flexible enough to accommodate novel boundary conditions such as land-use change or increased climate variability. Essentially, virtual watersheds help resource managers evaluate the risks of alternatives once uncertainties have been quantified.

Curve Number and Peakflow Responses Following the Cerro Grande Fire on a Small Watershed.

The Curve Number (CN) method is routinely used to estimate runoff and peakflows following forest fires, but there has been essentially no literature on the estimated value and temporal variation of CNs following wildland fires. In May 2000, the Cerro Grande Fire burned the headwaters of the major watersheds that cross Los Alamos National Laboratory, and a stream gauging network presented an opportunity to assess CNs following the fire. Analysis of rainfall-runoff events indicated that the prefire watershed response was complacent or limited watershed area contributed to runoff. The post-fire response indicated that the complacent behavior continued so the watershed response was not dramatically changed. Peakflows did increase by 2 orders of magnitude following the fire, and this was hypothesized to be a function of increase in runoff volume and changes in watershed network allowing more efficient delivery of runoff. More observations and analyses following fires are needed to support definition of CNs for post-fire response and mitigation efforts.