Evren Ors

The predictive power of implied volatility: Evidence from 35 futures markets

Abstract Using data from 35 futures options markets from eight separate exchanges, we test how well the implied volatilities (IVs) embedded in option prices predict subsequently realized volatility (RV) in the underlying futures. We find that for this broad array of futures options, IV performs well in a relative sense. For a large majority of the commodities studied, the implieds outperform historical volatility (HV) as a predictor of the subsequently RV in the underlying futures prices over the remaining life of the option. Indeed, in most markets examined, regardless of whether it is modeled as a simple moving average or in a GARCH framework, HV contains no economically significant predictive information beyond what is already incorporated in IV. These findings add to previous research that has focused on currency and crude oil futures by extending the analysis into a very broad array of contracts and exchanges. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that futures options markets in general, with their minimal trading frictions, are efficient.

Bank Performance around the Introduction of a Section 20 Subsidiary

As of 1987, commercial banks in the United States were allowed to establish Section 20 subsidiaries to conduct investment-banking activities. A concern of regulators was that these activities would result in a decrease in performance of commercial banks relative to the risk being undertaken. This paper examines the performance of commercial banks around the establishment of a Section 20 subsidiary. We find that Section 20 activities undertaken by banks result in increased industry-adjusted operating cash flow return on assets, due mainly to revenues from noncommercial-banking activities. Further, risk measures for the sample banks do not change significantly.

Performance Gender Gap: Does Competition Matter?

Using data for students undertaking a series of real-world academic examinations with high future payoffs, we examine whether the differences in these evaluations’ competitive nature generate a performance gender gap. In the univariate setting we find that women’s performance is first-order stochastically dominated by that of men when the competition is higher, whereas the reverse holds true in the less competitive or noncompetitive tests. These results are confirmed in the multivariate setting. Our findings, from a real-world setting with important payoffs at stake, are in line with the evidence from experimental research that finds that females tend to perform worse in more competitive contexts.

Local Market Consolidation and Bank Productive Efficiency

The recent banking literature has evaluated the impact of mergers on the efficiency of the merging parties [e.g., Rhoades (1993), Shaffer (1993), Fixler and Zieschang (1993)]. Similarly, there has been analysis of the impact of eliminating bank entry restrictions on the average performance of banks [Jayaratne and Strahan (1998)]. The evidence suggests that acquiring banks are typically more efficient than are acquired banks, resulting in the potential for the new combined organization to be more efficient and, therefore, for the merger to be welfare enhancing. The evidence also suggests, however, that these potential gains are often not realized. This has led some to question the benefits resulting from the recent increase in bank merger activity. We take a somewhat more comprehensive and micro-oriented approach and evaluate the impact of actual and potential competition resulting from market-entry mergers and reductions in entry barriers on bank efficiency. In particular, in addition to the efficiency gains realized by the parties involved in a bank merger, economic theory argues that additional efficiency gains should result from the impact of the merger on the degree of local market competition. We therefore examine the impact of increased competition resulting from mergers and acquisitions on the productive efficiency of incumbent banks. Our findings are consistent with economic theory: as competition increases as a result of entry or the creation of a more viable local competitor, the incumbent banks respond by increasing their level of cost efficiency. We find this efficiency increase to be in addition to any efficiency gains resulting from increases in potential competition occurring with the initial elimination of certain entry barriers. Thus, consistent with economic theory, new entrants and reductions in entry barriers lead incumbent firms to increase their productive efficiency to enable them to be viable in the more competitive environment. Studies evaluating the impact of bank mergers on the efficiency of the combining parties alone may be overlooking the most significant welfare enhancing aspect of merger activity. We do not find evidence of profit efficiency gains. In fact, the mergers are associated with decreases in profit efficiency; perhaps indicating that revenues may also be competed away from incumbents as a result of mergers.

Using implied volatility on options to measure the relation between asset returns and variability

Abstract Prior research has documented that volatility in financial asset markets is most directly related to trading rather than calendar days, and that there is an inverse asymmetric relation between volatility and returns in both stocks and long-term bonds. We examine these relations in 37 futures options markets representing a wide variety of asset types. Using futures prices and implied volatilities from this extensive array of markets, we confirm that in all of them, save one, market volatility is more directly related to trading days. However, the nature of the association between implied volatility and underlying asset returns varies greatly across asset categories and across exchanges. Thus, we show that findings from equity markets apparently are not generalizable to other asset classes.

Systemic Risk in Clearing Houses: Evidence from the European Repo Market

How do crises affect Central clearing Counterparties (CCPs)? We focus on CCPs that clear and guarantee a large and safe segment of the repo market during the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. We start by developing a simple framework to infer CCP stress, which can be measured through the sensitivity of repo rates to sovereign CDS spreads. Such sensitivity jointly captures three effects: (1) the effectiveness of the haircut policy, (2) CCP member default risk (conditional on sovereign default) and (3) CCP default risk (conditional on both sovereign and CCP member default). The data show that, during the sovereign debt crisis of 2011, repo rates strongly respond to movements in sovereign risk, in particular for GIIPS countries, indicating significant CCP stress. Our model suggests that repo investors behaved as if the conditional probability of CCP default was very large.How do crises affect Central clearing Counterparties (CCPs)? We focus on CCPs that clear and guarantee a large and safe segment of the repo market during the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. We start by developing a simple framework to infer CCP stress, which can be measured through the sensitivity of repo rates to sovereign CDS spreads. Such sensitivity jointly captures three effects: (1) the effectiveness of the haircut policy, (2) CCP member default risk (conditional on sovereign default) and (3) CCP default risk (conditional on both sovereign and CCP member default). The data show that, during the sovereign debt crisis of 2011, repo rates strongly respond to movements in sovereign risk, in particular for GIIPS countries, indicating significant CCP stress. Our model suggests that repo investors behaved as if the conditional probability of CCP default was very large.

U.S. Banking Integration and State-Level Exports

Using inter-state banking deregulation in the U.S. as an exogenous experiment, the authors find that a 1% increase in banking integration between U.S. states caused a 0.164-0.184% increase in the foreign exports/domestic shipments ratio for U.S. state level exports in the years 1992-1996. They can ascribe these effects to the integration by banks with foreign assets: a 1% increase in banking integration through such banks caused the exports/domestic shipments ratio to increase by 0.22-0.41% while the expansion of banks with purely domestic assets appears to have no impact. Given the empirical specification, this increase in openness can be attributed to an increase in capital to cover variable and fixed export costs relative to domestic shipping costs and a higher provision of trade finance services. Serving new destinations (the extensive margin defined at the state-country level) accounts for 22% to 28% of the banking integration effect that the authors observe.

Advertising and Pricing at Multiple Output Firms: Evidence from U.S. Thrift Institutions

We derive five hypotheses model regarding the determinants of advertising and deposit pricing from a structural theoretical of profit maximizing depository institutions; we test these conjectures in a simultaneous system of deposit interest rates and advertising expenditures for the population of U.S. thrift institutions between 1994 and 2000. Our data contains ten different deposit products being sold in 666 different geographic markets. We find support for each of our hypotheses--branding, information, Dorfman-Steiner, structure-advertising, and structure-price--with the strength of the results depending on the attributes of the different deposit products and the characteristics of the various thrifts.

Systemic risk in clearing houses: Evidence from the European repo market

We study how crises affect Central Clearing Counterparties (CCPs). We focus on a large and safe segment of the CCP-cleared repo market during the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. We develop a simple model to infer CCP stress, which is measured as repo rates’ sensitivity to sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) spreads and jointly captures (1) the effectiveness of haircut policies, (2) CCP-member default risk (conditional on sovereign default), and (3) CCP default risk (conditional on both sovereign and CCP-member default). During 2011, repo rates strongly respond to sovereign risk, particularly for Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain (GIIPS): Repo investors behaved as if the conditional probability of CCP default was substantial.

Financial Integration and Growth: Banks' Previous Industry Exposure Matters

Using U.S. interstate banking deregulations, we identify the effect of banks’ prior to market-entry industry exposures on the state-level manufacturing sector growth. Examining industry value added, gross operating surplus, total compensation, number of employees, output per employee and wages, we find that the larger the discrepancy in specialization in an industry between a state-pair, the higher is the impact of banking integration on the growth of that sector in the less specialized state. Our results indicate that a banking channel shapes the states’ industrial landscape. Banks prior exposure to different sectors appears to have important consequences for regional economic integration.