Evžen Kočenda

AN ALTERNATIVE TO THE BDS TEST: INTEGRATION ACROSS THE CORRELATION INTEGRAL

This paper extends and generalizes the BDS test presented by Brock, Dechert, Scheinkman, and LeBaron (1996). In doing so it aims to remove the limitation of having to arbitrarily select a proximity parameter by integrating across the correlation integral. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to tabulate critical values of the alternative statistic. Previously published empirical studies are replicated as well as power tests executed in order to evaluate the relative performance of the suggested alternative to the BDS test. The results are favorable for the suggested alternative.

Divestitures, privatization and corporate performance in emerging markets

We use new firm-level data to examine the effects of firm divestitures and privatization on corporate performance in a rapidly emerging market economy. Unlike the existing literature, we control for accompanying ownership changes and the fact that divestitures and ownership are potentially endogenous variables. We find that divestitures increase the firms profitability but do not alter its scale of operations, while the effect of privatization depends on the resulting ownership structure - sometimes improving performance and sometimes bringing about decline. The effects of privatization are thus more nuanced than suggested in earlier studies. Methodologically, our study provides evidence that it is important to control for changes in ownership when analyzing divestitures and to control for endogeneity, selection and data attrition when analyzing the effects of divestitures and privatization. Copyright (c) 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation (c) 2009 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Bond Market Emergence

We analyse the emerging Serbian bond market to compare its behaviour to developed markets and to indicate what is behind bond market emergence. As an analytical tool we model the term structure of the bond market. We find that a modified standard model performs rather well in the environment of an emerging market with numerous imperfections and external shocks involved since we obtain a concave yield curve as in developed markets. Further, we show the link of such a structure to macroeconomic developments in terms of responsiveness of interest rates to changes in industrial production and inflation. Finally, the frequency of trading, market liquidity and transparency can be considered as drivers that make the market emerge.

Bankovní sektor a státní riziko v Evropské unii

We analyze and quantify link between quality of the banking sector and sovereign risk in the states of the European Union (EU) using data over 1999-2014. We employ two market-based measures of the sovereign risk along with several empirically and theoretically motivated variables that characterize banking sector. We perform Bayesian estimations on several panels of countries. Our results show that higher ratio of the non-performing loans represents the most important industry-specific variable that is linked with a heightened rate of the sovereign risk. On the other hand, findings related to the size and depth of the banking sector, along with the capital adequacy ratio, are less clear-cut. Higher penetration of the foreign banks and higher degree of competition characterize a diversified structure of the banking industry that seems to be beneficial for the banking sector stability and is linked with lower sovereign risk.We analyze and quantify link between quality of the banking sector and sovereign risk in the states of the European Union (EU) using data over 1999-2014. We employ two market-based measures of the sovereign risk along with several empirically and theoretically motivated variables that characterize banking sector. We perform Bayesian estimations on several panels of countries. Our results show that higher ratio of the non-performing loans represents the most important industry-specific variable that is linked with a heightened rate of the sovereign risk. On the other hand, findings related to the size and depth of the banking sector, along with the capital adequacy ratio, are less clear-cut. Higher penetration of the foreign banks and higher degree of competition characterize a diversified structure of the banking industry that seems to be beneficial for the banking sector stability and is linked with lower sovereign risk.

Export sophistication: A dynamic panel data approach

ABSTRACT In this article, we analyze export sophistication based on a large panel dataset (2001–2015; 101 countries) and using various estimation algorithms. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we evaluate the bias properties of estimators and show that GMM-type estimators outperform instrumental-variable and fixed-effects estimators. Based on our analysis we document that GDP per capita and the size of the economy exhibit significant and positive effects on export sophistication; weak institutional quality exhibits negative effect. We also show that export sophistication is path-dependent and stable even during a major economic crisis, which is especially important for emerging and developing economies.

FDI and Ownership in Czech Firms: Pre- and Post-crisis Efficiency

We analyze how efficiency of firms in the Czech Republic is affected by their size, age, competition, capital structure, ownership types, and global financial crisis. We employ the stochastic frontier approach, use a large and detailed dataset, and cover time span 2001-2012. We show that larger firms cannot be associated with better efficiency in general. Effect of their age has only negligible impact. Impact of the capital structure is shown to be strong in large and more leveraged firms. Higher competition is not contributive to efficiency neither on individual nor aggregate levels. While effects of firm characteristics are small, the effects of ownership are economically substantial. We show that majority owners are most contributive with respect to firm’s efficiency when compared to other categories we analyze. Minority owners with legally grounded power are able to impose significant efficiency improvement. The effect of the foreign ownership is strongest when foreign owners control firms with less than majority of voting power. Minority owners sharing the control do not seem to contribute to efficiency. The impact of crisis is not balanced but can be regarded as negative in general. The firms’ characteristics change only a little. In contrast, worsening impact of the crisis is evidenced for controlling ownership categories. Minority owners exhibit a limited disciplining effect to improve efficiency after the crisis.

Wavelet-Based Correlation Analysis of the Key Traded Assets

This chapter reveals the time-frequency dynamics of the dependence among key traded assets—gold, oil, and stocks, in the long run, over a period of 26 years. Using both intra-day and daily data and employing a variety of methodologies, including a novel time-frequency approach combining wavelet-based correlation analysis with high-frequency data, we provide interesting insights into the dynamic behavior of the studied assets. We account for structural breaks and reveal a radical change in correlations after 2007–2008 in terms of time-frequency behavior. Our results confirm different levels of dependence at various investment horizons indicating heterogeneity in stock market participants’ behavior, which has not been documented previously. While these key assets formerly had the potential to serve as items in a well-diversified portfolio, the events of 2007–2008 changed this situation dramatically.

Firemní efektivita: vliv vlastnických struktur a finančních ukazatelů

We employ a large panel data set and analyze efficiency in the Czech firms during 1998-2007. We investigate how their efficiency evolves over time and how it is affected by ownership structures. Methodologically we employ a panel version of a stochastic production frontier model. We distinguish several categories of the ownership concentration by domestic owners and through foreign direct investments (FDI). Our results show that concentrated and foreign ownership impact efficiency positively in general. This results confirm benefits of the foreign direct ownership on the microeconomic level. Further, we show cases when majority ownership does not necessarily constitute improvements in efficiency. We also analyze effect of ownership coalitions and bring detailed new evidence on how ownership structures and industry sectors affect firms´ efficiency.

Existence procesu učení na umělém akciovém trhu

Learning is a subject of intense research in economics. We present persuasive evidence that learning took place among uninformed heterogeneous agents during a large-scale naturally-occurring set of auctions. Empirical study employs a unique bidding data set of 5000 individual investors that placed their bids in the voucher scheme that in terms of size, incentives, and variation is one of the largest experiments ever conducted. To detect and quantify learning we develop new measures of individual performance during the bidding process on the artificial stock market where prices of goods vary over successive stages of bidding on the basis of supply and demand.

Inflace a mechanismus měnových kurzů

Do the rates of inflation converge among the countries of EU? How vary are convergence processes in different groups of countries? The text study these questions and are trying to prove this process. Furthermore it is a question whether a mechanism of exchange rate (ERM) helped accelerate convergence of inflation of members countries involved in the mechanism. The motivation reason for these questions is evaluation of converging degree of inflation in EU. A finding and evaluation of convergence could predicate if one of conditions necessary for our participation in the EMU is reachable in close future. It is obvious, that countries, which for long time kept narrow fluctuation brand of ERM show out higher rate of convergence during time after base of mechanism.