Ewa Kocot

Impact of aging on curative health care workforce. Country Report Poland

The report discusses employment in the health care system in Poland based on analysis and projections of the demand and supply of medical workforce. The impact of the financial situation and policy on relativelly low employment level of medical personel was accounted for in the analysis while projections were driven by demographic changes in the following two decades. Results of different demographic variants of projections used in Neujobs project and additional scenarios show that while ageing is an important factor that may stimulate demand for provision of medical personnel, changes might be mitigated by further increase in efficiency of care. At the same time the supply of care will be affected by ageing too. The results indicate that more detailed monitoring of employment in the future will be needed in order to assure adequacy of provision of medical professionals, especially of nurses (critical gap), some medical specialists, physiotherapists and medical technical personnel.This report was prepared within a research project entitled NEUJOBS, which has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no. 266833.

Zasoby kadr dla sektora zdrowotnego. Dotychczasowe tendencje i prognozy

Human resources in health care. Up-to-date trends and projections The article presents the diagnosis of trends in health care sector personnel in Poland, particularly physicians and nurses, and projections of the future personnel taking into account population ageing. The article is based on the NEUJOBS project research performed within the European Commission 7 th Framework Programme. The analysis and projections use quantitative data: administrative, Eurostat data and GUS survey results. The density of employment of the health personnel per 1000 inhabitants is lower in Poland than in other EU-countries. In the future the demand for the medical personnel will be growing due to the increased needs for health care and ageing. The projections show that shortages of personnel will be faced by hospitals, particularly for specializations related to treatment of chronic diseases, while this is not the case in primary care. The size of the demand for medical personnel will be subjected to increase in technical efficiency of hospitals.

Przemiany demograficzne - świat, Europa, Polska. Wpływ zmian demograficznych na rynek pracy i sektor ochrony zdrowia

The population ageing is an universal problem concerning all countries in the world, not only in Europe. The main sources of this process are decreasing fertility and increasing life expectancy. The migration has additional impact on ageing in some countries. The ageing of population means many new challenges in the field of economy and society. The quality of life of older people and the entire population as well depends on how countries will meet these challenges and how societies will adapt to the changing demographic conditions. Longer life can mean activity, health and participation, but it depends on properly planned activities in many areas of social and economic life. The phenomenon of ageing and the consequences associated with them are extremely complex and multilateral issues. The presented article focuses on the comparision of the process of ageing in different continents and countries, particularly in Poland. It concerns the problem of the ageing impact on labour market and health care sector as well.

Development of Scenarios for Health Expenditure in the New EU Member States: Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia

The report is a result of the Ageing, Health Status and Determinants of Health Expenditure (AHEAD) project within the EC 6th Framework programme. The objective of the research was to present the model of future health care system revenues and expenditures in selected Central and Eastern European countries (CEE) which are now the New EU Member States, and to discuss projection assumptions and results. Selected countries include Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The projections are based on methodology adopted in the International Labour Organization (ILO) Social Budget model. The projection examines impact of demographic changes and changes in health status on future (up to 2050) health expenditures. Next to it, future changes in the labour market participation and their imact on the health care system revenues are examined. Results indicate that due to demographic pressures health expenditures will increase in the next 40 years and health care systems in the NMS will face deficit. Moreover, health revenues, expenditures and deficit/surplus are slightly sensitive to possible labour market changes. Health care system reforms are required in order to balance the disequilibrium of revenues and expenditures caused by external factors (demographic and economic), and decrease the premium needed to cover expenditures. Such reforms should lead, on the one hand, to the rationing of medical services covered by public resources, and on the other, to more effective governance and management of the sector and within the sector.

Scenarios for Health Expenditure in Poland

The report is a result of the Ageing, Health Status and Determinants of Health Expenditure (AHEAD) project within the EC 6th Framework programme. The objective of the research was to present the model of future health care system revenues and expenditures in Poland and to discuss projection assumptions and results. The projections are based on methodology adopted in the International Labour Organization (ILO) Social Budget model. The projection examines impact of demographic changes and changes in health status on future (up to 2050) health expenditures. Next to it, future changes in the labour market participation and their impact on the health care system revenues are examined. Impact of demography on the health care system financial balanced is examined in four different scenarios: baseline scenario, death-related costs scenario, different longevity scenario and diversified employment rates scenario. Results indicate dynamic and systematic increase of the health expenditures in the next 30 years. Afterwards the dynamics of this process is foreseen to slow down. Despite the increase of the revenues of the health care system, the system will face deficit in the close future. This holds for each scenario, however the size of the deficit differs depending on longevity and labour market participation assumptions. Results lead to a discussion on possible reforms of the health care system.

Health Expenditure Scenarios in the New Member States: Country Report on Poland

The objective of this report is to present the model of future health care system revenues and expenditures in Poland, and to discuss assumptions for the projection and projection results. Expenditure analysis is based on ILO social budget model, part of which is health budget model. The model takes into account the revenue side of health care system as well, which is consistent with the above-mentioned discussion on health care system funding and its sustainability. The first part of the Report is dedicated to social, and especially health-related, expenditure models and projections applied in Poland. Following, detailed description of data and information used in the current projection is presented. Baseline projections of main demographic and macro-economic variables and indicators used in the model are shown, and the assumptions for the development of these indicators and their inter-relations are discussed. Three scenarios are presented: the baseline scenario, death-related costs scenario, and the scenario with different longevity improvements. Projection results cover both the revenue and the expenditure side of health care system. Finally, conclusions are made and policy recommendations are formulated, based on projection results.

Health Expenditure Scenarios in the New Member States - Comparative Report on Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia

The objective of this comparative report is to present the model of future health care system revenues and expenditures in selected Central and Eastern European countries which are now the new EU member states, and to discuss projection assumptions and results. Health expenditure analysis and projections are based on the ILO social budget model, a part of which is the health budget model. The model covers health care system revenues and expenditures. It is suitable for the analysis of impact exerted by demography (especially ageing) on health care system revenues and expenditures. The objective of AHEAD project is to examine those factors. Up to date, data and information sources in new member states that could be used for the long-term comparative projections have been limited.