Ewa Magiera

Application of Bayesian Networks to the Forecasting of Daily Water Demand

In this paper, we investigate the application of Bayesian Networks (BN) for the 1-step ahead forecasting of daily water demand. The water demand time series is associated with the series containing information for daily precipitation and mean temperature that play the role of the additional explanatory variables. To enable the application of the standard Bayesian network as a predictive model, all considered time series are discretized. The number of discretization intervals is assumed as a parameter of the following learn-and-test trials. To test forecasting accuracy, we propose a novel discrete type of mean absolute error measure. Then, the concept of growing window is used to learn and test several Bayesian networks. For comparative experiments, different algorithms for learning structure and parameters of the BNs are applied. The experiments revealed that a simple two-node BN outperformed all of the other complex models tested for the considered data.

Forecasting Domestic Water Consumption Using Bayesian Model

In this paper, we address the problem of forecasting domestic water consumption. A specific feature of the forecasted time series is that water consumption occurs at random time steps. This substantially limits the application of the standard state-of-the art forecasting methods. The other existing forecasting models dedicated to predicting water consumption in households rely on data collected from questionnaires or diaries, requiring additional effort for gathering data. To overcome those limitations, we propose in this paper a Bayesian model to be applied for the forecasting of the domestic water consumption time series. The proposed theoretical approach has been tested using real-world data gathered from an anonymous household.

ISS-EWATUS Decision Support System - Overview of Achievements

Integrated Support System for Efficient Water Usage and Resources Management (ISS-EWATUS) is a project founded by the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme. Its main objective was to recognize and exploit an untapped potential to save water by using information and communication technology (ICT). After three years of the project life-time several tools for this purpose have been developed. In this paper we describe all these tools working together in synergy to conserve water. During the implementation of the presented tools, specific, scientific problems were faced. We explain how these problems were solved. In addition to the technical details, we make an overview of the research papers published as a result of the undertaken works.

WaterSocial.org as the social platform aimed to promote an efficient water use

ISS-EWATUS is a EU founded project which aims to increase the effectiveness of water saving awareness. One of its key components is the social media platform, along with connectors and information exchanging throughout whole system. In this paper, the brief description of this platform is stated, as well as the dissemination results of a whole ISS-EWATUS project.

Tips Service and Water Diary An Innovative Decision Support System for the Efficient Water Usage at Households

In the paper, we present the tips service and water diary, which are the modules of the mobile decision support system (DSS) for the efficient water usage at households. This system is a part of the Integrated Support System for Efficient Water Usage and resources management (ISS-EWATUS). The DSS at the household level is aimed at provoking the usage of the water more effective. Therefore, the tip service was designed and implemented. Tips are generated for each household as a result of the analysis of the previously gathered data concerning water consumption. In order to enhance and to personalise the influence of the DSS, the water diary was created. The water diary gives the possibility to members of the household to follow to identify their own water consumption measurement separately. Additionally, the water consumption data are presented to them as charts in the various views. The DSS was validated and accepted at 40 households in Poland and Greece.