Ewa Stanisławska

Monetary Policy Transmission Disturbances During the Financial Crisis

The aim of this paper is to show the implications of the current financial crisis for the monetary transmission mechanism (MTM) and its effectiveness in Poland, which is an inflation-targeting emerging market economy. MTM depends on monetary policy, but also on structural features of the economy. Financial crisis can affect both. Our results based on Polish data suggest a change in the monetary policy rule and a significant drop in overall monetary policy effectiveness. Unlike disturbances in the interest rate pass-through, which reflect an increased perception of risk and result from the financial crisis, the more pronounced role of credit market imperfections and the weakening of the exchange rate channel can be viewed as typical phenomena in the current phase of the business cycle. However, the magnitude of the crisis, the likely changes in the regulatory framework, and adjustments in macroeconomic policies can result in the deeper evolution of the MTM.

Consumer Inflation Expectations: Survey Questions and Quantification Methods - The Case of Poland

Qualitative data on inflation perceptions and expectations, as obtained from surveys, can be quantified into numerical indicators of the perceived and expected rates of price change. This paper presents the results of different versions of probability and regression methods, implemented in order to estimate Polish consumer inflation perceptions and predictions, based on monthly consumer surveys. The paper also discusses the limited usefulness of quantitative questions, which occur to be excessively difficult for a significant part of respondents, whose numerical declarations are inconsistent with opinions expressed in a qualitative manner

Interest Rate Pass-Through in Poland. Evidence from Individual Bank Data

This paper employs individual bank data to analyze interest rate pass-through from money market rates to bank deposit and lending rates. First the speed and completeness of interest rate adjustment is assessed. As the sample covers the period prior to and after the outbreak of the financial crisis, some comparisons of the interest rate transmission process in these periods are made. The influence of individual bank characteristics (e.g., size, liquidity, strength of deposit base, quality of credit portfolio) on features of the interest rate transmission is also examined.

A new approach to probabilistic surveys of professional forecasters and its application in the monetary policy context

In this paper we present the NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters introduced in 2011 by the National Bank of Poland. It is a new survey that allows analysis of macroeconomic forecasts of professional economists, including their probabilistic forecasts of CPI inflation, GDP growth and the NBP reference rate. In the paper we discuss in detail survey methodology, whose some elements are novel. It refers especially to the construction of probabilistic survey questions. Instead of declaring probabilities that in a certain horizon a given variable will be in pre-defined intervals, NBP SPF experts declare median and the limits of a 90-percent probability range between the 5th and 95th percentile of their subjective probability distributions. To present the benefits from the applied design of the NBP SPF, we describe the first results obtained from the NBP SPF.

The Impact of Inflation Expectations on Polish Consumers’ Spending and Saving

This article explores the relation between consumers’ inflation expectations and their spending and saving behavior, proxied by their buying and saving attitudes. The analysis, using a large micro dataset, suggests that inflation expectations negatively affect saving attitudes, especially in the group of consumers characterized by a very good financial situation. Moreover, the role of inflation expectations has increased since the global financial crisis. The results for buying attitudes are somewhat puzzling—especially if one tries to interpret them together with the results for saving attitude—as they also suggest a negative, although very weak, link to inflation expectations.