Ewoud Schuit

Prediction models for cardiovascular disease risk in the general population: systematic review

Objective To provide an overview of prediction models for risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population. Design Systematic review. Data sources Medline and Embase until June 2013. Eligibility criteria for study selection Studies describing the development or external validation of a multivariable model for predicting CVD risk in the general population. Results 9965 references were screened, of which 212 articles were included in the review, describing the development of 363 prediction models and 473 external validations. Most models were developed in Europe (n=167, 46%), predicted risk of fatal or non-fatal coronary heart disease (n=118, 33%) over a 10 year period (n=209, 58%). The most common predictors were smoking (n=325, 90%) and age (n=321, 88%), and most models were sex specific (n=250, 69%). Substantial heterogeneity in predictor and outcome definitions was observed between models, and important clinical and methodological information were often missing. The prediction horizon was not specified for 49 models (13%), and for 92 (25%) crucial information was missing to enable the model to be used for individual risk prediction. Only 132 developed models (36%) were externally validated and only 70 (19%) by independent investigators. Model performance was heterogeneous and measures such as discrimination and calibration were reported for only 65% and 58% of the external validations, respectively. Conclusions There is an excess of models predicting incident CVD in the general population. The usefulness of most of the models remains unclear owing to methodological shortcomings, incomplete presentation, and lack of external validation and model impact studies. Rather than developing yet another similar CVD risk prediction model, in this era of large datasets, future research should focus on externally validating and comparing head-to-head promising CVD risk models that already exist, on tailoring or even combining these models to local settings, and investigating whether these models can be extended by addition of new predictors.

Effectiveness of progestogens to improve perinatal outcome in twin pregnancies: an individual participant data meta-analysis

In twin pregnancies, the rates of adverse perinatal outcome and subsequent long‐term morbidity are substantial, and mainly result from preterm birth (PTB).

17α-hydroxyprogesterone caproate for the prevention of adverse neonatal outcome in multiple pregnancies: a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate whether administration of 17&agr;-hydroxyprogesterone caproate can prevent neonatal morbidity in multiple pregnancies by reducing the preterm birth rate. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized trial in 55 obstetric clinics in the Netherlands. Women with a multiple pregnancy were randomized to weekly injections of either 250 mg 17&agr;-hydroxyprogesterone caproate or placebo, starting between 16 and 20 weeks of gestation and continuing until 36 weeks of gestation. The main outcome measure was adverse neonatal outcome. Secondary outcome measures were gestational age at delivery and delivery before 28, 32, and 37 weeks of gestation. RESULTS: We randomized 671 women. A composite measure of adverse neonatal outcome was present in 110 children (16%) born to mothers in the 17&agr;-hydroxyprogesterone caproate group, and in 80 children (12%) of mothers in the placebo group (relative risk [RR] 1.34; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95–1.89). The mean gestational age at delivery was 35.4 weeks for the 17&agr;-hydroxyprogesterone caproate group and 35.7 weeks for the placebo group (P=.32). Treatment with 17&agr;-hydroxyprogesterone caproate did not reduce the delivery rate before 28 weeks (6% in the 17&agr;-hydroxyprogesterone caproate group compared with 5% in the placebo group, RR 1.04; 95% CI 0.56–1.94), 32 weeks (14% compared with 10%, RR 1.37; 95% CI 0.91–2.05), or 37 weeks of gestation (55% compared with 50%, RR 1.11; 95% CI 0.97–1.28). CONCLUSION: 17&agr;-hydroxyprogesterone caproate does not prevent neonatal morbidity or preterm birth in multiple pregnancies. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Register, www.isrctn.org, ISRCTN40512715. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: I

Effect of Maintenance Tocolysis With Nifedipine in Threatened Preterm Labor on Perinatal Outcomes A Randomized Controlled Trial

IMPORTANCE In threatened preterm labor, maintenance tocolysis with nifedipine, after an initial course of tocolysis and corticosteroids for 48 hours, may improve perinatal outcome. OBJECTIVE To determine whether maintenance tocolysis with nifedipine will reduce adverse perinatal outcomes due to premature birth. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS APOSTEL-II (Assessment of Perinatal Outcome with Sustained Tocolysis in Early Labor) is a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial performed in 11 perinatal units including all tertiary centers in The Netherlands. From June 2008 to February 2010, women with threatened preterm labor between 26 weeks (plus 0 days) and 32 weeks (plus 2 days) gestation, who had not delivered after 48 hours of tocolysis and a completed course of corticosteroids, were enrolled. Surviving infants were followed up until 6 months after birth (ended August 2010). INTERVENTION Randomization assigned 406 women to maintenance tocolysis with nifedipine orally (80 mg/d; n = 201) or placebo (n = 205) for 12 days. Assigned treatment was masked from investigators, participants, clinicians, and research nurses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Primary outcome was a composite of adverse perinatal outcomes (perinatal death, chronic lung disease, neonatal sepsis, intraventricular hemorrhage >grade 2, periventricular leukomalacia >grade 1, or necrotizing enterocolitis). Analyses were completed on an intention-to-treat basis. RESULTS Mean (SD) gestational age at randomization was 29.2 (1.7) weeks for both groups. Adverse perinatal outcome was not significantly different between groups: 11.9% (24/201; 95% CI, 7.5%-16.4%) for nifedipine vs 13.7% (28/205; 95% CI, 9.0%-18.4%) for placebo (relative risk, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.53-1.45). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In patients with threatened preterm labor, nifedipine-maintained tocolysis did not result in a statistically significant reduction in adverse perinatal outcomes when compared with placebo. Although the lower than anticipated rate of adverse perinatal outcomes in the control group indicates that a benefit of nifedipine cannot completely be excluded, its use for maintenance tocolysis does not appear beneficial at this time. TRIAL REGISTRATION trialregister.nl Identifier: NTR1336.

Effectiveness of electronic fetal monitoring with additional ST analysis in vertex singleton pregnancies at >36 weeks of gestation: an individual participant data metaanalysis

OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to assess the effectiveness of electronic fetal monitoring (EFM) alone and with additional ST analysis (EFM + ST) in laboring women with a singleton term pregnancy that is in cephalic presentation in the prevention of metabolic acidosis by the application of individual patient data metaanalysis. STUDY DESIGN We conducted an individual patient data metaanalysis using data from 4 randomized trials, which enabled us to account for missing data and investigate relevant subgroups. The primary outcome was metabolic acidosis, which was defined as an umbilical cord-artery pH <7.05 and a base deficit that had been calculated in the extra cellular fluid compartment >12 mmol/L. We performed 8 explanatory subgroup analyses for 8 different endpoints. RESULTS We analyzed data from 12,987 women and their newborn infants. Metabolic acidosis was present in 57 women (0.9%) in the EFM + ST group and 73 women (1.1%) in the EFM alone group (relative risk [RR], 0.76; 95% CI, 0.53-1.10). Compared with EFM alone, the use of EFM + ST resulted in a reduction in the frequency of instrumental vaginal deliveries (RR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83-0.99) and fetal blood samples (RR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.44-0.55). Cesarean delivery rates were comparable between both groups (RR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.91-1.09). Subgroup analyses showed that EFM + ST resulted in fewer admissions to a neonatal intensive care unit for women with a duration of pregnancy of >41 weeks (RR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.39-0.95). CONCLUSION EFM + ST does not reduce the risk of metabolic acidosis, but it does reduce the need for instrumental vaginal deliveries and fetal blood sampling.

Recurrence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy: an individual patient data metaanalysis.

OBJECTIVE We performed an individual participant data (IPD) metaanalysis to calculate the recurrence risk of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) and recurrence of individual hypertensive syndromes. STUDY DESIGN We performed an electronic literature search for cohort studies that reported on women experiencing HDP and who had a subsequent pregnancy. The principal investigators were contacted and informed of our study; we requested their original study data. The data were merged to form one combined database. The results will be presented as percentages with 95% confidence interval (CI) and odds ratios with 95% CI. RESULTS Of 94 eligible cohort studies, we obtained IPD of 22 studies, including a total of 99,415 women. Pooled data of 64 studies that used published data (IPD where available) showed a recurrence rate of 18.1% (n=152,213; 95% CI, 17.9-18.3%). In the 22 studies that are included in our IPD, the recurrence rate of a HDP was 20.7% (95% CI, 20.4-20.9%). Recurrence manifested as preeclampsia in 13.8% of the studies (95% CI,13.6-14.1%), gestational hypertension in 8.6% of the studies (95% CI, 8.4-8.8%) and hemolysis, elevated liver enzymes and low platelets (HELLP) syndrome in 0.2% of the studies (95% CI, 0.16-0.25%). The delivery of a small-for-gestational-age child accompanied the recurrent HDP in 3.4% of the studies (95% CI, 3.2-3.6%). Concomitant HELLP syndrome or delivery of a small-for-gestational-age child increased the risk of recurrence of HDP. Recurrence increased with decreasing gestational age at delivery in the index pregnancy. If the HDP recurred, in general it was milder, regarding maximum diastolic blood pressure, proteinuria, the use of oral antihypertensive and anticonvulsive medication, the delivery of a small-for-gestational-age child, premature delivery, and perinatal death. Normotensive women experienced chronic hypertension after pregnancy more often after experiencing recurrence (odds ratio, 3.7; 95% CI, 2.3-6.1). CONCLUSION Among women that experience hypertension in pregnancy, the recurrence rate in a next pregnancy is relatively low, and the course of disease is milder for most women with recurrent disease. These reassuring data should be used for shared decision-making in women who consider a new pregnancy after a pregnancy that was complicated by hypertension.

Antiphospholipid antibody profile based obstetric outcomes of primary antiphospholipid syndrome: The PREGNANTS study

BACKGROUND: Antiphospholipid syndrome is an autoimmune, hypercoagulable state that is caused by antiphospholipid antibodies. Anticardiolipin antibodies, anti‐&bgr;2 glycoprotein‐I, and lupus anticoagulant are the main autoantibodies found in antiphospholipid syndrome. Despite the amassed body of clinical knowledge, the risk of obstetric complications that are associated with specific antibody profile has not been well‐established. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of obstetric complications in women with primary antiphospholipid syndrome that is associated with specific antibody profile. STUDY DESIGN: The Pregnancy In Women With Antiphospholipid Syndrome study is a multicenter, retrospective, cohort study. Diagnosis and classification of antiphospholipid syndrome were based on the 2006 International revised criteria. All women included in the study had at least 1 clinical criteria for antiphospholipid syndrome, were positive for at least 1 antiphospholipid antibody (anticardiolipin antibodies, anti‐&bgr;2 glycoprotein‐I, and/or lupus anticoagulant), and were treated with low‐dose aspirin and prophylactic low molecular weight heparin from the first trimester. Only singleton pregnancies with primary antiphospholipid syndrome were included. The primary outcome was live birth, defined as any delivery of a live infant after 22 weeks gestation. The secondary outcomes were preeclampsia with and without severe features, intrauterine growth restriction, and stillbirth. We planned to assess the outcomes that are associated with the various antibody profile (test result for lupus anticoagulant, anticardiolipin antibodies, and anti‐&bgr;2 glycoprotein‐I). RESULTS: There were 750 singleton pregnancies with primary antiphospholipid syndrome in the study cohort: 54 (7.2%) were positive for lupus anticoagulant only; 458 (61.0%) were positive for anticardiolipin antibodies only; 128 (17.1%) were positive for anti‐&bgr;2 glycoprotein‐I only; 90 (12.0%) were double positive and lupus anticoagulant negative, and 20 (2.7%) were triple positive. The incidence of live birth in each of these categories was 79.6%, 56.3%, 47.7%, 43.3%, and 30.0%, respectively. Compared with women with only 1 antibody positive test results, women with multiple antibody positive results had a significantly lower live birth rate (40.9% vs 56.6%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.51–0.90). Also, they were at increased risk of preeclampsia without (54.5% vs 34.8%; adjusted odds ratio, 1.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.22–1.95) and with severe features (22.7% vs 13.8%, adjusted odds ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.19–2.49), of intrauterine growth restriction (53.6% vs 40.8%; adjusted odds ratio, 2.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.17–2.61) and of stillbirth (36.4% vs 21.7%; adjusted odds ratio, 2.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.22–2.94). In women with only 1 positive test result, women with anti‐&bgr;2 glycoprotein‐I positivity present alone had a significantly lower live birth rate (47.7% vs 56.3% vs 79.6%; P<.01) and a significantly higher incidence of preeclampsia without (47.7% vs 34.1% vs 11.1%; P<.01) and with severe features (17.2% vs 14.4% vs 0%; P=.02), intrauterine growth restriction (48.4% vs 40.1% vs 25.9%; P<.01), and stillbirth (29.7% vs 21.2% vs 7.4%; P<.01) compared with women with anticardiolipin antibodies and with women with lupus anticoagulant present alone, respectively. In the group of women with >1 antibody positivity, triple‐positive women had a lower live birth rate (30% vs 43.3%; adjusted odds ratio,0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.22–0.91) and a higher incidence of intrauterine growth restriction (70.0% vs 50.0%; adjusted odds ratio,2.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.15–2.99) compared with double positive and lupus anticoagulant negative women. CONCLUSION: In singleton pregnancies with primary antiphospholipid syndrome, anticardiolipin antibody is the most common sole antiphospholipid antibody present, but anti‐&bgr;2 glycoprotein‐I is the one associated with the lowest live birth rate and highest incidence of preeclampsia, intrauterine growth restriction, and stillbirth, compared with the presence of anticardiolipin antibodies or lupus anticoagulant alone. Women with primary antiphospholipid syndrome have an increased risk of obstetric complications and lower live birth rate when <1 antiphospholipid antibody is present. Despite therapy with low‐dose aspirin and prophylactic low molecular weight heparin, the chance of a liveborn neonate is only 30% for triple‐positive women.

How to interpret a small increase in AUC with an additional risk prediction marker: decision analysis comes through

An important question in the evaluation of an additional risk prediction marker is how to interpret a small increase in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Many researchers believe that a change in AUC is a poor metric because it increases only slightly with the addition of a marker with a large odds ratio. Because it is not possible on purely statistical grounds to choose between the odds ratio and AUC, we invoke decision analysis, which incorporates costs and benefits. For example, a timely estimate of the risk of later non-elective operative delivery can help a woman in labor decide if she wants an early elective cesarean section to avoid greater complications from possible later non-elective operative delivery. A basic risk prediction model for later non-elective operative delivery involves only antepartum markers. Because adding intrapartum markers to this risk prediction model increases AUC by 0.02, we questioned whether this small improvement is worthwhile. A key decision-analytic quantity is the risk threshold, here the risk of later non-elective operative delivery at which a patient would be indifferent between an early elective cesarean section and usual care. For a range of risk thresholds, we found that an increase in the net benefit of risk prediction requires collecting intrapartum marker data on 68 to 124 women for every correct prediction of later non-elective operative delivery. Because data collection is non-invasive, this test tradeoff of 68 to 124 is clinically acceptable, indicating the value of adding intrapartum markers to the risk prediction model.

Maternal allopurinol administration during suspected fetal hypoxia: a novel neuroprotective intervention? A multicentre randomised placebo controlled trial

Objective To determine whether maternal allopurinol treatment during suspected fetal hypoxia would reduce the release of biomarkers associated with neonatal brain damage. Design A randomised double-blind placebo controlled multicentre trial. Patients We studied women in labour at term with clinical indices of fetal hypoxia, prompting immediate delivery. Setting Delivery rooms of 11 Dutch hospitals. Intervention When immediate delivery was foreseen based on suspected fetal hypoxia, women were allocated to receive allopurinol 500 mg intravenous (ALLO) or placebo intravenous (CONT). Main outcome measures Primary endpoint was the difference in cord S100ß, a tissue-specific biomarker for brain damage. Results 222 women were randomised to receive allopurinol (ALLO, n=111) or placebo (CONT, n=111). Cord S100ß was not significantly different between the two groups: 44.5 pg/mL (IQR 20.2–71.4) in the ALLO group versus 54.9 pg/mL (IQR 26.8–94.7) in the CONT group (difference in median −7.69 (95% CI −24.9 to 9.52)). Post hoc subgroup analysis showed a potential treatment effect of allopurinol on the proportion of infants with a cord S100ß value above the 75th percentile in girls (ALLO n=5 (12%) vs CONT n=10 (31%); risk ratio (RR) 0.37 (95% CI 0.14 to 0.99)) but not in boys (ALLO n=18 (32%) vs CONT n=15 (25%); RR 1.4 (95% CI 0.84 to 2.3)). Also, cord neuroketal levels were significantly lower in girls treated with allopurinol as compared with placebo treated girls: 18.0 pg/mL (95% CI 12.1 to 26.9) in the ALLO group versus 32.2 pg/mL (95% CI 22.7 to 45.7) in the CONT group (geometric mean difference −16.4 (95% CI −24.6 to −1.64)). Conclusions Maternal treatment with allopurinol during fetal hypoxia did not significantly lower neuronal damage markers in cord blood. Post hoc analysis revealed a potential beneficial treatment effect in girls. Trial registration number NCT00189007, Dutch Trial Register NTR1383.

Prospective risk of stillbirth and neonatal complications in twin pregnancies: systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective To determine the risks of stillbirth and neonatal complications by gestational age in uncomplicated monochorionic and dichorionic twin pregnancies. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources Medline, Embase, and Cochrane databases (until December 2015). Review methods Databases were searched without language restrictions for studies of women with uncomplicated twin pregnancies that reported rates of stillbirth and neonatal outcomes at various gestational ages. Pregnancies with unclear chorionicity, monoamnionicity, and twin to twin transfusion syndrome were excluded. Meta-analyses of observational studies and cohorts nested within randomised studies were undertaken. Prospective risk of stillbirth was computed for each study at a given week of gestation and compared with the risk of neonatal death among deliveries in the same week. Gestational age specific differences in risk were estimated for stillbirths and neonatal deaths in monochorionic and dichorionic twin pregnancies after 34 weeks’ gestation. Results 32 studies (29 685 dichorionic, 5486 monochorionic pregnancies) were included. In dichorionic twin pregnancies beyond 34 weeks (15 studies, 17 830 pregnancies), the prospective weekly risk of stillbirths from expectant management and the risk of neonatal death from delivery were balanced at 37 weeks’ gestation (risk difference 1.2/1000, 95% confidence interval −1.3 to 3.6; I2=0%). Delay in delivery by a week (to 38 weeks) led to an additional 8.8 perinatal deaths per 1000 pregnancies (95% confidence interval 3.6 to 14.0/1000; I2=0%) compared with the previous week. In monochorionic pregnancies beyond 34 weeks (13 studies, 2149 pregnancies), there was a trend towards an increase in stillbirths compared with neonatal deaths after 36 weeks, with an additional 2.5 per 1000 perinatal deaths, which was not significant (−12.4 to 17.4/1000; I2=0%). The rates of neonatal morbidity showed a consistent reduction with increasing gestational age in monochorionic and dichorionic pregnancies, and admission to the neonatal intensive care unit was the commonest neonatal complication. The actual risk of stillbirth near term might be higher than reported estimates because of the policy of planned delivery in twin pregnancies. Conclusions To minimise perinatal deaths, in uncomplicated dichorionic twin pregnancies delivery should be considered at 37 weeks’ gestation; in monochorionic pregnancies delivery should be considered at 36 weeks. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD42014007538.